Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.9% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching exactly 14°C today, driven by real-time observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) showing morning lows around 10°C under persistent overcast skies and northerly breezes limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating. Short-range forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and AccuWeather align, projecting a subdued peak amid thickening clouds and minimal sunshine, consistent with recent Marmara region patterns of cool, stable air masses. This positioning reflects strong evidence from hourly monitoring stations at key sites like Atatürk Airport. Realistic challenges include an improbable mid-afternoon clearing, enabling 1–2°C rapid warming via enhanced shortwave radiation, though current upper-air data indicates low likelihood before evening cooldown. Final MGM observations will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 30?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 30?
14°C 100.0%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$62,319 Vol.
$62,319 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
14°C 100.0%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$62,319 Vol.
$62,319 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
14°C
$4,807 Vol.
100%
15°C
$9,453 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$6,142 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$4,435 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,736 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,396 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$1,482 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.9% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching exactly 14°C today, driven by real-time observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) showing morning lows around 10°C under persistent overcast skies and northerly breezes limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating. Short-range forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and AccuWeather align, projecting a subdued peak amid thickening clouds and minimal sunshine, consistent with recent Marmara region patterns of cool, stable air masses. This positioning reflects strong evidence from hourly monitoring stations at key sites like Atatürk Airport. Realistic challenges include an improbable mid-afternoon clearing, enabling 1–2°C rapid warming via enhanced shortwave radiation, though current upper-air data indicates low likelihood before evening cooldown. Final MGM observations will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volume
$62,319End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.9% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching exactly 14°C today, driven by real-time observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) showing morning lows around 10°C under persistent overcast skies and northerly breezes limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating. Short-range forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and AccuWeather align, projecting a subdued peak amid thickening clouds and minimal sunshine, consistent with recent Marmara region patterns of cool, stable air masses. This positioning reflects strong evidence from hourly monitoring stations at key sites like Atatürk Airport. Realistic challenges include an improbable mid-afternoon clearing, enabling 1–2°C rapid warming via enhanced shortwave radiation, though current upper-air data indicates low likelihood before evening cooldown. Final MGM observations will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$62,319End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.9% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching exactly 14°C today, driven by real-time observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) showing morning lows around 10°C under persistent overcast skies and northerly breezes limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating. Short-range forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and AccuWeather align, projecting a subdued peak amid thickening clouds and minimal sunshine, consistent with recent Marmara region patterns of cool, stable air masses. This positioning reflects strong evidence from hourly monitoring stations at key sites like Atatürk Airport. Realistic challenges include an improbable mid-afternoon clearing, enabling 1–2°C rapid warming via enhanced shortwave radiation, though current upper-air data indicates low likelihood before evening cooldown. Final MGM observations will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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