Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 12°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on April 30, reflecting official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport where the peak reached 12°C midday under partly cloudy skies and cool northerly winds suppressing further warming. IMGW forecasts aligned with this, projecting maxima of 11–12°C amid a broader cold snap following frost warnings earlier in the week, consistent with ECMWF model runs showing stable high-pressure influence and limited solar heating at 52°N latitude. This positions below the late-April climatological average of 13–14°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies and light winds enabling a late-afternoon temperature spike before sunset around 19:45 CEST, though declining solar angle makes exceeding 12°C improbable; final IMGW data release will confirm resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 30?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 30?
12°C 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$115,537 Vol.
$115,537 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
12°C
100%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$115,537 Vol.
$115,537 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
12°C
$20,576 Vol.
100%
13°C
$14,712 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$14,313 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$7,066 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$7,466 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$5,733 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 12°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on April 30, reflecting official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport where the peak reached 12°C midday under partly cloudy skies and cool northerly winds suppressing further warming. IMGW forecasts aligned with this, projecting maxima of 11–12°C amid a broader cold snap following frost warnings earlier in the week, consistent with ECMWF model runs showing stable high-pressure influence and limited solar heating at 52°N latitude. This positions below the late-April climatological average of 13–14°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies and light winds enabling a late-afternoon temperature spike before sunset around 19:45 CEST, though declining solar angle makes exceeding 12°C improbable; final IMGW data release will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Volume
$115,537End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 12°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on April 30, reflecting official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport where the peak reached 12°C midday under partly cloudy skies and cool northerly winds suppressing further warming. IMGW forecasts aligned with this, projecting maxima of 11–12°C amid a broader cold snap following frost warnings earlier in the week, consistent with ECMWF model runs showing stable high-pressure influence and limited solar heating at 52°N latitude. This positions below the late-April climatological average of 13–14°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies and light winds enabling a late-afternoon temperature spike before sunset around 19:45 CEST, though declining solar angle makes exceeding 12°C improbable; final IMGW data release will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$115,537End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 12°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on April 30, reflecting official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport where the peak reached 12°C midday under partly cloudy skies and cool northerly winds suppressing further warming. IMGW forecasts aligned with this, projecting maxima of 11–12°C amid a broader cold snap following frost warnings earlier in the week, consistent with ECMWF model runs showing stable high-pressure influence and limited solar heating at 52°N latitude. This positions below the late-April climatological average of 13–14°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies and light winds enabling a late-afternoon temperature spike before sunset around 19:45 CEST, though declining solar angle makes exceeding 12°C improbable; final IMGW data release will confirm resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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