Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 22°C at 56.5% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on April 30, reflecting a blend of AEMET's conservative 21°C forecast—issued under stabilizing high-pressure conditions with high clouds limiting insolation—and slightly warmer signals from ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 22°C. This positioning stems from a cooling trend after April 28's 25°C peak at Retiro station, with April 29 maxima near 19°C amid moderating spring airflow. Current AEMET observations at 17:00 hora oficial show Retiro at 20.4°C and Barajas Airport at 21.8°C (today's high so far), underscoring late-afternoon uncertainty as peak heating windows close; official resolution awaits final Retiro readings, with historical April 30 averages around 19°C providing climatological context.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on April 30?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 30?
22°C 61%
21°C 37%
23°C 4.0%
24°C 1.5%
$115,521 Vol.
$115,521 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
20°C
<1%
21°C
37%
22°C
61%
23°C
4%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 61%
21°C 37%
23°C 4.0%
24°C 1.5%
$115,521 Vol.
$115,521 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
20°C
$15,279 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$10,031 Vol.
37%
22°C
$11,656 Vol.
61%
23°C
$9,247 Vol.
4%
24°C
$15,874 Vol.
1%
25°C
$10,912 Vol.
1%
26°C
$10,337 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$9,012 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 22°C at 56.5% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on April 30, reflecting a blend of AEMET's conservative 21°C forecast—issued under stabilizing high-pressure conditions with high clouds limiting insolation—and slightly warmer signals from ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 22°C. This positioning stems from a cooling trend after April 28's 25°C peak at Retiro station, with April 29 maxima near 19°C amid moderating spring airflow. Current AEMET observations at 17:00 hora oficial show Retiro at 20.4°C and Barajas Airport at 21.8°C (today's high so far), underscoring late-afternoon uncertainty as peak heating windows close; official resolution awaits final Retiro readings, with historical April 30 averages around 19°C providing climatological context.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$115,521End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 22°C at 56.5% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on April 30, reflecting a blend of AEMET's conservative 21°C forecast—issued under stabilizing high-pressure conditions with high clouds limiting insolation—and slightly warmer signals from ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 22°C. This positioning stems from a cooling trend after April 28's 25°C peak at Retiro station, with April 29 maxima near 19°C amid moderating spring airflow. Current AEMET observations at 17:00 hora oficial show Retiro at 20.4°C and Barajas Airport at 21.8°C (today's high so far), underscoring late-afternoon uncertainty as peak heating windows close; official resolution awaits final Retiro readings, with historical April 30 averages around 19°C providing climatological context.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$115,521End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 22°C at 56.5% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on April 30, reflecting a blend of AEMET's conservative 21°C forecast—issued under stabilizing high-pressure conditions with high clouds limiting insolation—and slightly warmer signals from ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 22°C. This positioning stems from a cooling trend after April 28's 25°C peak at Retiro station, with April 29 maxima near 19°C amid moderating spring airflow. Current AEMET observations at 17:00 hora oficial show Retiro at 20.4°C and Barajas Airport at 21.8°C (today's high so far), underscoring late-afternoon uncertainty as peak heating windows close; official resolution awaits final Retiro readings, with historical April 30 averages around 19°C providing climatological context.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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