Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Name: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Start: 2025-11-12T22:54:31.124Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? — Discussion

Zwicky · 2025-11-12T22:54:31.124Z

Discussion about Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

Climate & Science·Science

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

2 56%

1 35%

4 4.5%

6 or lower 3.8%

$2,721,625 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

$436,789 Vol.

35%

$306,013 Vol.

56%

$400,894 Vol.

$404,512 Vol.

$715,801 Vol.

6 or lower

$457,654 Vol.

2 56%

1 35%

4 4.5%

6 or lower 3.8%

$2,721,625 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

$436,789 Vol.

35%

$306,013 Vol.

56%

$400,894 Vol.

$404,512 Vol.

$715,801 Vol.

6 or lower

$457,654 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

83%

Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?

85%

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

10%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2" at 56%, followed by "1" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?" is "2" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $2.7 million traded on “Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 56¢ for "2" in the "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 56% chance that "2" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 56¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 44¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?" market has an active community of 17 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

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Comments (17)

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