Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million km² in mid-March, statistically tied for the lowest in the satellite record, combined with persistently below-average spring conditions and early June extents under 11 million km², underpins the market's leading <4 million km² outcome for the September minimum. Arctic amplification and above-average polar temperatures have accelerated melt rates that track below recent years according to NSIDC and JAXA data, building on the multi-decade decline of roughly 12% per decade. Model spread in summer melt and potential weather anomalies introduce remaining uncertainty, with ongoing NSIDC monitoring through September providing key updates on daily extent thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 21.2%
4.2-4.4m sq km 8.2%
4.4-4.6m sq km 6.0%
$54,862 Vol.
$54,862 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
21%
4.2-4.4m sq km
8%
4.4-4.6m sq km
6%
4.6-4.8m sq km
5%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
1%
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 21.2%
4.2-4.4m sq km 8.2%
4.4-4.6m sq km 6.0%
$54,862 Vol.
$54,862 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$27,700 Vol.
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$4,792 Vol.
21%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,558 Vol.
8%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,991 Vol.
6%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$3,304 Vol.
5%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,840 Vol.
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,677 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million km² in mid-March, statistically tied for the lowest in the satellite record, combined with persistently below-average spring conditions and early June extents under 11 million km², underpins the market's leading <4 million km² outcome for the September minimum. Arctic amplification and above-average polar temperatures have accelerated melt rates that track below recent years according to NSIDC and JAXA data, building on the multi-decade decline of roughly 12% per decade. Model spread in summer melt and potential weather anomalies introduce remaining uncertainty, with ongoing NSIDC monitoring through September providing key updates on daily extent thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$54,862End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million km² in mid-March, statistically tied for the lowest in the satellite record, combined with persistently below-average spring conditions and early June extents under 11 million km², underpins the market's leading <4 million km² outcome for the September minimum. Arctic amplification and above-average polar temperatures have accelerated melt rates that track below recent years according to NSIDC and JAXA data, building on the multi-decade decline of roughly 12% per decade. Model spread in summer melt and potential weather anomalies introduce remaining uncertainty, with ongoing NSIDC monitoring through September providing key updates on daily extent thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$54,862End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million km² in mid-March, statistically tied for the lowest in the satellite record, combined with persistently below-average spring conditions and early June extents under 11 million km², underpins the market's leading <4 million km² outcome for the September minimum. Arctic amplification and above-average polar temperatures have accelerated melt rates that track below recent years according to NSIDC and JAXA data, building on the multi-decade decline of roughly 12% per decade. Model spread in summer melt and potential weather anomalies introduce remaining uncertainty, with ongoing NSIDC monitoring through September providing key updates on daily extent thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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