Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (37%) and 21°C (31.5%) for Amsterdam's highest temperature on May 2, reflecting divergent short-range forecast models amid inherent uncertainty two days out. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) latest outlook as of April 30 morning projects a 23°C peak under variable conditions—40% sunshine interspersed with 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms, mainly south and east—with southwest winds at Beaufort 3 potentially aiding warm advection. However, U.S. models like GFS and ensemble spreads indicate 3-4°C divergence, as incoming frontal clouds could reduce insolation and cap highs below 22°C. Above seasonal norms (historical May 2 average ~16°C), key differentiators include precise timing of precipitation and cloud cover; monitor today's 12Z ECMWF update for shifts before official Schiphol Airport measurement resolves the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 2?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 2?
20°C 40%
21°C 35%
19°C 13%
22°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
13%
20°C
40%
21°C
35%
22°C
12%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
2%
20°C 40%
21°C 35%
19°C 13%
22°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
14°C or below
$323 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$343 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$293 Vol.
1%
17°C
$288 Vol.
1%
18°C
$216 Vol.
3%
19°C
$365 Vol.
13%
20°C
$145 Vol.
40%
21°C
$20 Vol.
35%
22°C
$145 Vol.
12%
23°C
$32 Vol.
5%
24°C or higher
$187 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (37%) and 21°C (31.5%) for Amsterdam's highest temperature on May 2, reflecting divergent short-range forecast models amid inherent uncertainty two days out. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) latest outlook as of April 30 morning projects a 23°C peak under variable conditions—40% sunshine interspersed with 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms, mainly south and east—with southwest winds at Beaufort 3 potentially aiding warm advection. However, U.S. models like GFS and ensemble spreads indicate 3-4°C divergence, as incoming frontal clouds could reduce insolation and cap highs below 22°C. Above seasonal norms (historical May 2 average ~16°C), key differentiators include precise timing of precipitation and cloud cover; monitor today's 12Z ECMWF update for shifts before official Schiphol Airport measurement resolves the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$2,356End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (37%) and 21°C (31.5%) for Amsterdam's highest temperature on May 2, reflecting divergent short-range forecast models amid inherent uncertainty two days out. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) latest outlook as of April 30 morning projects a 23°C peak under variable conditions—40% sunshine interspersed with 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms, mainly south and east—with southwest winds at Beaufort 3 potentially aiding warm advection. However, U.S. models like GFS and ensemble spreads indicate 3-4°C divergence, as incoming frontal clouds could reduce insolation and cap highs below 22°C. Above seasonal norms (historical May 2 average ~16°C), key differentiators include precise timing of precipitation and cloud cover; monitor today's 12Z ECMWF update for shifts before official Schiphol Airport measurement resolves the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,356End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (37%) and 21°C (31.5%) for Amsterdam's highest temperature on May 2, reflecting divergent short-range forecast models amid inherent uncertainty two days out. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) latest outlook as of April 30 morning projects a 23°C peak under variable conditions—40% sunshine interspersed with 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms, mainly south and east—with southwest winds at Beaufort 3 potentially aiding warm advection. However, U.S. models like GFS and ensemble spreads indicate 3-4°C divergence, as incoming frontal clouds could reduce insolation and cap highs below 22°C. Above seasonal norms (historical May 2 average ~16°C), key differentiators include precise timing of precipitation and cloud cover; monitor today's 12Z ECMWF update for shifts before official Schiphol Airport measurement resolves the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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