The market-implied 44% probability for an Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers this September reflects trader consensus on exceptionally thin ice following the 2026 winter maximum extent, which tied the satellite-era record low of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15 per NSIDC data—1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981–2010 average. This low-volume start to melt season, combined with continued below-average extents through late April and a likely shift to El Niño conditions by summer (61–62% NOAA chance), favors rapid ice loss amid the long-term 12% per-decade decline in September minima. Uncertainty persists in regional melt patterns and model forecasts; SIPN Sea Ice Outlook updates expected in June will refine probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
<4 millones km² 44%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 20.2%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 10.0%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 7.6%
$33,790 Vol.
$33,790 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
44%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
20%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
12%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
8%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
6%
4.8-5 millones de km²
2%
5+ millones de km²
2%
<4 millones km² 44%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 20.2%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 10.0%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 7.6%
$33,790 Vol.
$33,790 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
$24,484 Vol.
44%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
$3,073 Vol.
20%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
$1,025 Vol.
12%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
$1,088 Vol.
8%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
$2,220 Vol.
6%
4.8-5 millones de km²
$897 Vol.
2%
5+ millones de km²
$1,003 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The market-implied 44% probability for an Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers this September reflects trader consensus on exceptionally thin ice following the 2026 winter maximum extent, which tied the satellite-era record low of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15 per NSIDC data—1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981–2010 average. This low-volume start to melt season, combined with continued below-average extents through late April and a likely shift to El Niño conditions by summer (61–62% NOAA chance), favors rapid ice loss amid the long-term 12% per-decade decline in September minima. Uncertainty persists in regional melt patterns and model forecasts; SIPN Sea Ice Outlook updates expected in June will refine probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$33,790Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The market-implied 44% probability for an Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers this September reflects trader consensus on exceptionally thin ice following the 2026 winter maximum extent, which tied the satellite-era record low of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15 per NSIDC data—1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981–2010 average. This low-volume start to melt season, combined with continued below-average extents through late April and a likely shift to El Niño conditions by summer (61–62% NOAA chance), favors rapid ice loss amid the long-term 12% per-decade decline in September minima. Uncertainty persists in regional melt patterns and model forecasts; SIPN Sea Ice Outlook updates expected in June will refine probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$33,790Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market-implied 44% probability for an Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers this September reflects trader consensus on exceptionally thin ice following the 2026 winter maximum extent, which tied the satellite-era record low of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15 per NSIDC data—1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981–2010 average. This low-volume start to melt season, combined with continued below-average extents through late April and a likely shift to El Niño conditions by summer (61–62% NOAA chance), favors rapid ice loss amid the long-term 12% per-decade decline in September minima. Uncertainty persists in regional melt patterns and model forecasts; SIPN Sea Ice Outlook updates expected in June will refine probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes