Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts indicate Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 2 clustering around 14–15°C, with model ensembles showing minimal spread that mirrors the tight 38.5% and 35.5% market-implied odds for these outcomes. This trader consensus reflects partial cloud cover and light southerly winds overnight from May 1–2, promoting radiative cooling near early May climatological norms of 13–15°C, up slightly from cooler late-April air masses. Key differentiators include potential urban heat island effects boosting 15°C odds and clearer skies favoring 14°C, amid historical lows averaging 14°C at official stations. JMA hourly updates through evening May 1 and pre-dawn observations will resolve uncertainties, as 1°C swings are common in spring transitional weather.