National Weather Service guidance for Miami International Airport forecasts a pre-dawn low around 75°F on May 3 under partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds transitioning ahead of a frontal passage bringing showers later in the day, but closely matched market-implied odds around 48% for 72-73°F, 74-75°F, and nearby bins reflect significant ensemble spread in GFS and ECMWF models, where some members simulate enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling to 69°F or below under clearer conditions, while others maintain warmer lows via persistent low-level moisture and urban heat island effects. Recent unseasonable heat from a subtropical ridge has elevated prior nighttime minima near 70°F, with the approaching trough introducing uncertainty in cloud cover and precipitation timing that differentiates outcomes. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates expected today could sharpen trader consensus before resolution.