Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated May 12, pegs the May 15 minimum temperature at 24°C under cloudy skies with showers and squally thunderstorms driven by a southerly airstream and trough of low pressure over the South China Sea, explaining the trader consensus favoring 24°C (32% implied probability) closely trailed by 25°C (24%) and 23°C (20%). These tight odds highlight short-range uncertainty in weather models, where persistent cloud cover and high humidity (80-95%) could suppress radiative cooling for a warmer 25°C low, while brief clearing or stronger winds might allow a dip to 23°C—consistent with late-May climatological norms of 23-26°C amid normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperatures. Watch HKO's daily updates for refined ensemble model runs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
24°C 34%
25°C 34%
26°C 21%
23°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 may 2026
18°C o menos
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
11%
24°C
34%
25°C
34%
26°C
21%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 34%
25°C 34%
26°C 21%
23°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 may 2026
18°C o menos
$370 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$449 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$73 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$77 Vol.
1%
22°C
$32 Vol.
2%
23°C
$48 Vol.
11%
24°C
$40 Vol.
34%
25°C
$20 Vol.
34%
26°C
$136 Vol.
21%
27°C
$265 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$1,516 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated May 12, pegs the May 15 minimum temperature at 24°C under cloudy skies with showers and squally thunderstorms driven by a southerly airstream and trough of low pressure over the South China Sea, explaining the trader consensus favoring 24°C (32% implied probability) closely trailed by 25°C (24%) and 23°C (20%). These tight odds highlight short-range uncertainty in weather models, where persistent cloud cover and high humidity (80-95%) could suppress radiative cooling for a warmer 25°C low, while brief clearing or stronger winds might allow a dip to 23°C—consistent with late-May climatological norms of 23-26°C amid normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperatures. Watch HKO's daily updates for refined ensemble model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$3,004Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated May 12, pegs the May 15 minimum temperature at 24°C under cloudy skies with showers and squally thunderstorms driven by a southerly airstream and trough of low pressure over the South China Sea, explaining the trader consensus favoring 24°C (32% implied probability) closely trailed by 25°C (24%) and 23°C (20%). These tight odds highlight short-range uncertainty in weather models, where persistent cloud cover and high humidity (80-95%) could suppress radiative cooling for a warmer 25°C low, while brief clearing or stronger winds might allow a dip to 23°C—consistent with late-May climatological norms of 23-26°C amid normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperatures. Watch HKO's daily updates for refined ensemble model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,004Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated May 12, pegs the May 15 minimum temperature at 24°C under cloudy skies with showers and squally thunderstorms driven by a southerly airstream and trough of low pressure over the South China Sea, explaining the trader consensus favoring 24°C (32% implied probability) closely trailed by 25°C (24%) and 23°C (20%). These tight odds highlight short-range uncertainty in weather models, where persistent cloud cover and high humidity (80-95%) could suppress radiative cooling for a warmer 25°C low, while brief clearing or stronger winds might allow a dip to 23°C—consistent with late-May climatological norms of 23-26°C amid normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperatures. Watch HKO's daily updates for refined ensemble model runs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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