Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecasts and ensemble models indicate Karachi's high on May 15 will likely fall in the 34–36°C range, driving the tight market-implied probabilities with 36°C or higher at 35.5%, 35°C at 31.5%, and 34°C at 25.5%. Mid-May climatology supports this, as average highs reach 35–36°C under pre-monsoon subsidence and low humidity, but recent days' temperatures in the mid-30s°C—coupled with persistent dry conditions noted in PMD's May 13 update—have kept upside potential alive without heatwave escalation. Differentiating factors include sea breeze intensity from the Arabian Sea, which often caps afternoon peaks below 36°C via evaporative cooling, versus clear skies and urban heat island effects favoring higher readings. Patchy clouds or light winds could tip toward 34°C; watch PMD's evening forecast refresh for model shifts.