Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to a high of 66°F or higher in San Francisco on May 15, driven by the latest National Weather Service point forecasts at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO)—the market's official observation site—projecting a daytime high near 72°F under sunny skies with breezy westerly winds gusting to 26 mph in the afternoon. This positioning reflects a brief warming trend from mild upper-level ridging amid a broader cooling shift from an approaching trough off the Pacific Northwest, which strengthens onshore flow but allows coastal clearing; May climatological normals hover around 66°F, with 2026 month-to-date averages already above normal. Uncertainty lingers from potential lingering marine stratus or gustier winds capping peaks in the mid-60s, as hinted in ensemble model blends. Watch for NWS updates this afternoon and evening model runs refining marine layer extent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 15?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 15?
66°F or higher 72%
64-65°F 23%
62-63°F 3.8%
60-61°F 1.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 may 2026
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
23%
66°F or higher
72%
66°F or higher 72%
64-65°F 23%
62-63°F 3.8%
60-61°F 1.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 may 2026
47°F or below
$982 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$611 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$553 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$636 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$1,362 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$1,173 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$423 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$286 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$723 Vol.
4%
64-65°F
$463 Vol.
23%
66°F or higher
$356 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to a high of 66°F or higher in San Francisco on May 15, driven by the latest National Weather Service point forecasts at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO)—the market's official observation site—projecting a daytime high near 72°F under sunny skies with breezy westerly winds gusting to 26 mph in the afternoon. This positioning reflects a brief warming trend from mild upper-level ridging amid a broader cooling shift from an approaching trough off the Pacific Northwest, which strengthens onshore flow but allows coastal clearing; May climatological normals hover around 66°F, with 2026 month-to-date averages already above normal. Uncertainty lingers from potential lingering marine stratus or gustier winds capping peaks in the mid-60s, as hinted in ensemble model blends. Watch for NWS updates this afternoon and evening model runs refining marine layer extent.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volumen
$7,569Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to a high of 66°F or higher in San Francisco on May 15, driven by the latest National Weather Service point forecasts at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO)—the market's official observation site—projecting a daytime high near 72°F under sunny skies with breezy westerly winds gusting to 26 mph in the afternoon. This positioning reflects a brief warming trend from mild upper-level ridging amid a broader cooling shift from an approaching trough off the Pacific Northwest, which strengthens onshore flow but allows coastal clearing; May climatological normals hover around 66°F, with 2026 month-to-date averages already above normal. Uncertainty lingers from potential lingering marine stratus or gustier winds capping peaks in the mid-60s, as hinted in ensemble model blends. Watch for NWS updates this afternoon and evening model runs refining marine layer extent.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$7,569Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to a high of 66°F or higher in San Francisco on May 15, driven by the latest National Weather Service point forecasts at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO)—the market's official observation site—projecting a daytime high near 72°F under sunny skies with breezy westerly winds gusting to 26 mph in the afternoon. This positioning reflects a brief warming trend from mild upper-level ridging amid a broader cooling shift from an approaching trough off the Pacific Northwest, which strengthens onshore flow but allows coastal clearing; May climatological normals hover around 66°F, with 2026 month-to-date averages already above normal. Uncertainty lingers from potential lingering marine stratus or gustier winds capping peaks in the mid-60s, as hinted in ensemble model blends. Watch for NWS updates this afternoon and evening model runs refining marine layer extent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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