Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero earthquakes of moment magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide from April 27 to May 3 (70.5% implied probability), reflecting USGS data showing none recorded through April 30 despite continuous global monitoring. This quiet start to the period aligns with long-term seismicity rates—approximately 20–25 such events per year, or about 0.4 per week on average—yielding Poisson-distributed low odds for multiples. No active fault swarms, volcanic unrest, or anomalous foreshock patterns have elevated risks recently, per USGS catalogs. Probabilities could shift rapidly with new detections before May 3; watch for real-time updates from the authoritative seismic network.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
0 71%
1 24%
2 8%
3 1.1%
$20,774 Vol.
$20,774 Vol.
3 may 2026
0
71%
1
24%
2
8%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 71%
1 24%
2 8%
3 1.1%
$20,774 Vol.
$20,774 Vol.
3 may 2026
0
$7,941 Vol.
71%
1
$2,374 Vol.
24%
2
$1,413 Vol.
8%
3
$796 Vol.
1%
4
$2,151 Vol.
<1%
5
$2,405 Vol.
<1%
>5
$3,878 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero earthquakes of moment magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide from April 27 to May 3 (70.5% implied probability), reflecting USGS data showing none recorded through April 30 despite continuous global monitoring. This quiet start to the period aligns with long-term seismicity rates—approximately 20–25 such events per year, or about 0.4 per week on average—yielding Poisson-distributed low odds for multiples. No active fault swarms, volcanic unrest, or anomalous foreshock patterns have elevated risks recently, per USGS catalogs. Probabilities could shift rapidly with new detections before May 3; watch for real-time updates from the authoritative seismic network.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volumen
$20,774Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero earthquakes of moment magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide from April 27 to May 3 (70.5% implied probability), reflecting USGS data showing none recorded through April 30 despite continuous global monitoring. This quiet start to the period aligns with long-term seismicity rates—approximately 20–25 such events per year, or about 0.4 per week on average—yielding Poisson-distributed low odds for multiples. No active fault swarms, volcanic unrest, or anomalous foreshock patterns have elevated risks recently, per USGS catalogs. Probabilities could shift rapidly with new detections before May 3; watch for real-time updates from the authoritative seismic network.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$20,774Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero earthquakes of moment magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide from April 27 to May 3 (70.5% implied probability), reflecting USGS data showing none recorded through April 30 despite continuous global monitoring. This quiet start to the period aligns with long-term seismicity rates—approximately 20–25 such events per year, or about 0.4 per week on average—yielding Poisson-distributed low odds for multiples. No active fault swarms, volcanic unrest, or anomalous foreshock patterns have elevated risks recently, per USGS catalogs. Probabilities could shift rapidly with new detections before May 3; watch for real-time updates from the authoritative seismic network.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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