Forecast models from sources like the ECMWF and national meteorological services indicate a modest warm anomaly for Warsaw on June 5, with ensemble spreads placing the daytime maximum most likely between 23–26°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25°C and 26°C reflects genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and shortwave radiative heating, where small variations in cloud timing or advection of warmer continental air can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Historical June climatology shows average highs near 22–24°C, but current guidance highlights slightly above-normal temperatures without strong destabilization. Traders are watching the next high-resolution model runs for refined timing of any afternoon convection that could cap or enhance surface warming before resolution.