Traders assign a 56% implied probability to a June 5 high of 37°C or above in Jeddah because short-range meteorological models project daytime maxima in the mid-to-upper 30s under clear skies and light southwesterly winds. The Red Sea coastal setting introduces moderating sea breezes and humidity, yet strong solar insolation during peak June conditions often pushes readings to or beyond 37°C, consistent with climatological averages near 36–38°C. Recent observations show stable hot, dry patterns without significant cloud cover or frontal systems that would cap temperatures lower, though model spread leaves room for a 35–36°C outcome. Official station readings at the end of the day will resolve the market.