Global averages from USGS long-term catalogs indicate roughly 6–8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide in any given week, driven by steady tectonic strain release along subduction zones and transform faults. So far in the June 1–7 window, a magnitude 6.2 event struck offshore Italy on June 1 and a 5.7 occurred off Oregon on June 3, aligning with this baseline while leaving room for aftershock sequences or additional independent ruptures. The tightly clustered trader consensus around 6–7 outcomes reflects the inherent Poisson-like variability of seismic catalogs, where small changes in clustering or quiet periods can shift totals by several events in a short interval, tempered by the few remaining days before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?
7 26%
6 22%
8 19%
9 14%
≤5
10%
6
22%
7
26%
8
19%
9
14%
>9
13%
7 26%
6 22%
8 19%
9 14%
≤5
10%
6
22%
7
26%
8
19%
9
14%
>9
13%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Jun 3, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global averages from USGS long-term catalogs indicate roughly 6–8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide in any given week, driven by steady tectonic strain release along subduction zones and transform faults. So far in the June 1–7 window, a magnitude 6.2 event struck offshore Italy on June 1 and a 5.7 occurred off Oregon on June 3, aligning with this baseline while leaving room for aftershock sequences or additional independent ruptures. The tightly clustered trader consensus around 6–7 outcomes reflects the inherent Poisson-like variability of seismic catalogs, where small changes in clustering or quiet periods can shift totals by several events in a short interval, tempered by the few remaining days before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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