Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 51.5% implied probability to a 25°C high in Madrid today, outpacing AEMET's official forecast of 23°C maximum under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds at 10 km/h and no precipitation risk. This positioning stems from recent April warmth—yesterday's 22°C high per market resolution—and potential for enhanced solar heating amid Madrid's urban heat island effect, where clear intervals could push afternoon peaks higher despite baseline spring climatology averaging 22°C highs early May. Model ensembles like ECMWF show variability in cloud cover and boundary layer mixing, introducing uncertainty; actual outcomes hinge on hourly observations at Retiro station through evening, with updates expected throughout the day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 1?
25°C 52%
24°C 22%
26°C 18%
23°C 6.3%
$27,093 Vol.
$27,093 Vol.
1 may 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
6%
24°C
22%
25°C
52%
26°C
18%
27°C
4%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 52%
24°C 22%
26°C 18%
23°C 6.3%
$27,093 Vol.
$27,093 Vol.
1 may 2026
19°C or below
$875 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,396 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,401 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,837 Vol.
1%
23°C
$4,031 Vol.
6%
24°C
$2,797 Vol.
22%
25°C
$2,723 Vol.
52%
26°C
$2,885 Vol.
18%
27°C
$2,774 Vol.
4%
28°C
$1,804 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$1,609 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 51.5% implied probability to a 25°C high in Madrid today, outpacing AEMET's official forecast of 23°C maximum under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds at 10 km/h and no precipitation risk. This positioning stems from recent April warmth—yesterday's 22°C high per market resolution—and potential for enhanced solar heating amid Madrid's urban heat island effect, where clear intervals could push afternoon peaks higher despite baseline spring climatology averaging 22°C highs early May. Model ensembles like ECMWF show variability in cloud cover and boundary layer mixing, introducing uncertainty; actual outcomes hinge on hourly observations at Retiro station through evening, with updates expected throughout the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volumen
$27,093Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:19 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 51.5% implied probability to a 25°C high in Madrid today, outpacing AEMET's official forecast of 23°C maximum under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds at 10 km/h and no precipitation risk. This positioning stems from recent April warmth—yesterday's 22°C high per market resolution—and potential for enhanced solar heating amid Madrid's urban heat island effect, where clear intervals could push afternoon peaks higher despite baseline spring climatology averaging 22°C highs early May. Model ensembles like ECMWF show variability in cloud cover and boundary layer mixing, introducing uncertainty; actual outcomes hinge on hourly observations at Retiro station through evening, with updates expected throughout the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$27,093Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:19 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 51.5% implied probability to a 25°C high in Madrid today, outpacing AEMET's official forecast of 23°C maximum under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds at 10 km/h and no precipitation risk. This positioning stems from recent April warmth—yesterday's 22°C high per market resolution—and potential for enhanced solar heating amid Madrid's urban heat island effect, where clear intervals could push afternoon peaks higher despite baseline spring climatology averaging 22°C highs early May. Model ensembles like ECMWF show variability in cloud cover and boundary layer mixing, introducing uncertainty; actual outcomes hinge on hourly observations at Retiro station through evening, with updates expected throughout the day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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