Met Office guidance as of May 1 forecasts London's lowest temperature on May 3 at 10°C, driven by overcast skies, light showers, and gusty winds up to 25 mph following recent warm highs of 24°C on May 1 and 23°C on May 2. Trader consensus splits evenly at 49.5% implied probability for 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher, reflecting divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs: clears skies in drier scenarios enable radiative cooling under light winds, potentially dropping minima to 7°C amid post-frontal stability, while persistent low cloud and southerly flow trap heat for milder 11-16°C outcomes (45-45.5%). A 17°C+ extreme hinges on unlikely stalled high pressure; key uncertainty lies in frontal timing, with new 12Z model updates expected to sharpen odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in London on May 3?
Lowest temperature in London on May 3?
13°C 40%
12°C 9%
10°C 8%
11°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
7%
10°C
8%
11°C
8%
12°C
9%
13°C
40%
14°C
8%
15°C
7%
16°C
5%
17°C or higher
5%
13°C 40%
12°C 9%
10°C 8%
11°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
7°C or below
$33 Vol.
1%
8°C
$33 Vol.
1%
9°C
$0 Vol.
7%
10°C
$0 Vol.
8%
11°C
$0 Vol.
8%
12°C
$10 Vol.
9%
13°C
$10 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
8%
15°C
$0 Vol.
7%
16°C
$264 Vol.
5%
17°C or higher
$48 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Met Office guidance as of May 1 forecasts London's lowest temperature on May 3 at 10°C, driven by overcast skies, light showers, and gusty winds up to 25 mph following recent warm highs of 24°C on May 1 and 23°C on May 2. Trader consensus splits evenly at 49.5% implied probability for 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher, reflecting divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs: clears skies in drier scenarios enable radiative cooling under light winds, potentially dropping minima to 7°C amid post-frontal stability, while persistent low cloud and southerly flow trap heat for milder 11-16°C outcomes (45-45.5%). A 17°C+ extreme hinges on unlikely stalled high pressure; key uncertainty lies in frontal timing, with new 12Z model updates expected to sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volumen
$399Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Met Office guidance as of May 1 forecasts London's lowest temperature on May 3 at 10°C, driven by overcast skies, light showers, and gusty winds up to 25 mph following recent warm highs of 24°C on May 1 and 23°C on May 2. Trader consensus splits evenly at 49.5% implied probability for 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher, reflecting divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs: clears skies in drier scenarios enable radiative cooling under light winds, potentially dropping minima to 7°C amid post-frontal stability, while persistent low cloud and southerly flow trap heat for milder 11-16°C outcomes (45-45.5%). A 17°C+ extreme hinges on unlikely stalled high pressure; key uncertainty lies in frontal timing, with new 12Z model updates expected to sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$399Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Met Office guidance as of May 1 forecasts London's lowest temperature on May 3 at 10°C, driven by overcast skies, light showers, and gusty winds up to 25 mph following recent warm highs of 24°C on May 1 and 23°C on May 2. Trader consensus splits evenly at 49.5% implied probability for 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher, reflecting divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs: clears skies in drier scenarios enable radiative cooling under light winds, potentially dropping minima to 7°C amid post-frontal stability, while persistent low cloud and southerly flow trap heat for milder 11-16°C outcomes (45-45.5%). A 17°C+ extreme hinges on unlikely stalled high pressure; key uncertainty lies in frontal timing, with new 12Z model updates expected to sharpen odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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