Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (48.5% implied probability) as Cape Town's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) latest forecast of a maximum 18°C amid partly cloudy skies, cool southerly winds, and isolated showers. GFS and ECMWF model ensembles corroborate this clustering at 17–19°C, reflecting a sharp cooling trend from late April's highs near 28°C influenced by autumnal atmospheric shifts and persistent southwesterly flows channeling cooler Antarctic air. This positions outcomes below the historical May 1 average of 19.5°C, though minor model divergences and shower variability introduce uncertainty ahead of resolution via official Cape Town International Airport observations. New SAWS updates expected within 24 hours could refine these odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Cape Town on May 1?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 1?
18°C 47%
19°C 32%
17°C 21%
16°C 3.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
13%
18°C
47%
19°C
32%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 47%
19°C 32%
17°C 21%
16°C 3.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
13°C or below
$928 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,075 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$88 Vol.
1%
16°C
$359 Vol.
3%
17°C
$118 Vol.
13%
18°C
$245 Vol.
47%
19°C
$570 Vol.
32%
20°C
$239 Vol.
3%
21°C
$429 Vol.
1%
22°C
$606 Vol.
1%
23°C or higher
$369 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (48.5% implied probability) as Cape Town's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) latest forecast of a maximum 18°C amid partly cloudy skies, cool southerly winds, and isolated showers. GFS and ECMWF model ensembles corroborate this clustering at 17–19°C, reflecting a sharp cooling trend from late April's highs near 28°C influenced by autumnal atmospheric shifts and persistent southwesterly flows channeling cooler Antarctic air. This positions outcomes below the historical May 1 average of 19.5°C, though minor model divergences and shower variability introduce uncertainty ahead of resolution via official Cape Town International Airport observations. New SAWS updates expected within 24 hours could refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volumen
$4,858Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (48.5% implied probability) as Cape Town's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) latest forecast of a maximum 18°C amid partly cloudy skies, cool southerly winds, and isolated showers. GFS and ECMWF model ensembles corroborate this clustering at 17–19°C, reflecting a sharp cooling trend from late April's highs near 28°C influenced by autumnal atmospheric shifts and persistent southwesterly flows channeling cooler Antarctic air. This positions outcomes below the historical May 1 average of 19.5°C, though minor model divergences and shower variability introduce uncertainty ahead of resolution via official Cape Town International Airport observations. New SAWS updates expected within 24 hours could refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$4,858Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (48.5% implied probability) as Cape Town's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) latest forecast of a maximum 18°C amid partly cloudy skies, cool southerly winds, and isolated showers. GFS and ECMWF model ensembles corroborate this clustering at 17–19°C, reflecting a sharp cooling trend from late April's highs near 28°C influenced by autumnal atmospheric shifts and persistent southwesterly flows channeling cooler Antarctic air. This positions outcomes below the historical May 1 average of 19.5°C, though minor model divergences and shower variability introduce uncertainty ahead of resolution via official Cape Town International Airport observations. New SAWS updates expected within 24 hours could refine these odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes