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Texas Senate predictions & odds

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Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

52%

Democratic Party

$2M Vol.

$236K Liq.

36

Ends in 6 months

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Which party will win the House in 2026?

84%

Democratic Party

$5M Vol.

$149K today

$253K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

58%

Ken Paxton

$16M Vol.

$146K Liq.

1

Ends in 25 days

Texas Senate Election Winner

Texas Senate Election Winner

55%

Republican

$196K Vol.

$70.9K Liq.

10

Ends in 6 months

Texas Senate Election Matchup

Texas Senate Election Matchup

59%

Talarico & Paxton

$707K Vol.

$70.9K Liq.

3

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

40%

1.2–1.5M

$83.0K Vol.

$60.0K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

30%

Cornyn <3%

$57.2K Vol.

$51.6K Liq.

1

Ends in 24 days

Will Ken Paxton drop out?

Will Ken Paxton drop out?

8%

$5.6K Vol.

$10.6K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Nothing Ever Happens: March

Nothing Ever Happens: March

56%

Nothing

$338K Vol.

$21.5K Liq.

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

88%

$2.7K Vol.

$12.4K Liq.

2

Ends in 6 months

Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winner

Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winner

69%

Mayes Middleton

$4.6K Vol.

$1.1K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

24%

≤47

$2M Vol.

$145K Liq.

6

Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?

Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?

4%

$3.7K Vol.

$12.9K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner

Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner

66%

Julia Letlow

$243K Vol.

$139K Liq.

3

Ends in 15 days

Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?

Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?

94%

$959 Vol.

$325 Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

TX-21 House Election Winner

TX-21 House Election Winner

80%

Republican Party

$30.3K Vol.

$26.5K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

TX-12 House Election Winner

TX-12 House Election Winner

75%

Republican Party

$7.6K Vol.

$22.8K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

TX-10 House Election Winner

TX-10 House Election Winner

83%

Republican Party

$14.4K Vol.

$26.6K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

TX-01 House Election Winner

TX-01 House Election Winner

93%

Republican Party

$2.8K Vol.

$29.6K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

TX-11 House Election Winner

TX-11 House Election Winner

91%

Republican Party

$23.5K Vol.

$34.0K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 110 active markets for Texas Senate that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $27.3M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will Ken Paxton drop out?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 58% chance to Ken Paxton. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Texas Senate predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.