Top Republican contenders JD Vance and Marco Rubio hold institutional advantages as vice president and secretary of state in the current administration, while Gavin Newsom leads early Democratic positioning as California governor. Recent Emerson polling shows the GOP primary nearly tied between Vance and Rubio, reflecting shifts in party support and the absence of formal nominations. With no major candidates locked in and 2026 midterms ahead, trader consensus keeps probabilities compressed among the top three. Economic conditions, foreign policy developments, and primary field clarity after November could widen gaps by clarifying coalition strength and frontrunner momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains undecided on 2028 presidential run
Ocasio-Cortez publicly stated she is undecided about running for president in 2028, maintaining her political flexibility but limiting market enthusiasm.
JD Vance discusses faith and personal challenges in interview
JD Vance's interview revealing his personal struggles and faith provided insight into his character, influencing public perception and market price modestly.
JD Vance announces upcoming memoir focusing on faith
Vance's announcement of a new memoir about his faith aimed to broaden his appeal and reshape his public image, potentially affecting his market price.
JD Vance criticized for comments on UK teen murder and immigration
JD Vance drops to 23%5%
JD Vance faced criticism from UK officials for comments linking immigration to a teen's murder, impacting his public image and contributing to a decline in his market price.
Marco Rubio testifies on Iran war and US foreign policy
Marco Rubio rises to 15%2%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the administration's Iran policy and military actions, raising his profile and market price from 13% to 15%.
Secretary Rubio testifies on Iran sanctions, signals tough U.S. stance
Marco Rubio rises to 14%4%
Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Iran‑related sanctions, emphasizing a hard‑line stance. The appearance lifted his odds, moving the market price from 10 % on 2026‑05‑19 to 14 % on 2026‑06‑04.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio Testifies Before Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%
Marco Rubio testified in back-to-back high-profile congressional hearings regarding the State Department budget and the administration's strategy on the Iran conflict, boosting his national profile.
House passes Geothermal Cost‑Recovery Authority Act sponsored by AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%
The House passed the Geothermal Cost‑Recovery Authority Act, a bipartisan bill sponsored by Ocasio‑Cortez, raising her market price from 9 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 5 % on 2026‑06‑06 as the bill attracted criticism from conservative media.
JD Vance delivers commencement address at U.S. Air Force Academy
JD Vance's keynote speech at the Air Force Academy highlighted his leadership and military engagement, reinforcing his stature and maintaining his market price around 18-19%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rallies support for Democratic candidates on national tour
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez actively campaigned for Democratic candidates during a national tour, signaling her growing influence and potential 2028 presidential ambitions, though her market price declined slightly.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez undertakes national tour and fundraising efforts
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 6%1%
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez conducted a national tour and reported significant fundraising, maintaining her market presence though with limited price gains, ending near 6%.
Vice President JD Vance delivers commencement address at U.S. Air Force Academy
JD Vance dips to 15%4%
Vance's role as commencement speaker showcased his leadership and public presence, positively influencing his market perception as a presidential hopeful.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez embarks on national tour fueling 2028 presidential speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%1%
Ocasio-Cortez's national tour and increased media presence fueled speculation about a 2028 presidential run, though her market price remained low, reflecting mixed market confidence.
Fox News calls AOC a 'chaos candidate' for 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%
A Fox News segment discussed AOC’s nationwide tour and the pundit label of her as a potential “chaos candidate” for 2028, causing her market price to dip from 9 % to 5 % as investors reassessed her electability.
Marco Rubio visits India to repair and strengthen diplomatic ties
Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%
Marco Rubio's high-profile visit to India, including meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and cultural engagements, aimed to stabilize US-India relations, boosting his market standing amid foreign policy focus.
Vice President JD Vance expands national security team amid foreign conflicts
JD Vance bolstered his foreign policy operation during ongoing international conflicts, enhancing his profile as Vice President and influencing his market price slightly downward amid political challenges.
Marco Rubio announces significant progress toward Iran nuclear deal
Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the U.S. made significant progress toward an interim deal with Iran, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear material disposal. This diplomatic development enhanced Rubio's stature and market price as a serious presidential contender.
Marco Rubio meets Indian officials to strengthen U.S.-India relations
Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%
Marco Rubio's visit to India included meetings with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and discussions on trade and bilateral ties. Although no major deals were signed, the visit was seen as a diplomatic effort to repair relations, positively impacting Rubio's market price.
Marco Rubio visits India to strengthen US-India relations and attends Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting
Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%
Marco Rubio's diplomatic visit to India and participation in the Quad meeting underscored his foreign policy leadership, boosting his market price from 11% to 14% as he gained prominence as a 2028 presidential contender.
Federal arrest in $23 million homeless services fraud in Los Angeles draws criticism of Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 16%2%
Federal authorities arrested a suspect in a $23 million homeless services fraud scheme in Los Angeles, leading to sharp criticism of Governor Gavin Newsom for oversight failures. This scandal negatively impacted Newsom's market price.
JD Vance faces political isolation and considers abandoning 2028 run
JD Vance dips to 18%1%
Reports on May 23, 2026, indicated Vice President JD Vance was increasingly isolated after Tulsi Gabbard's exit and was contemplating dropping out of the 2028 presidential race, pressuring his market price downward to 18%.
Rubio and Vance emerge as leading contenders in Republican 2028 succession race
Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%
Analysis highlighted the intensifying contest between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to succeed Donald Trump, with Vance maintaining a lead but Rubio gaining ground through diplomatic and policy roles. This dynamic was reflected in market price movements favoring Rubio and some volatility for Vance.
Jon Ossoff's message resonates with GOP voters amid 2028 speculation
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
Senator Jon Ossoff's speeches criticizing the wealthy elite and corruption have gained traction even among GOP voters, boosting his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
AOC says she may consider a White House bid in 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%
A Hill interview where AOC said she was keeping her options open for a 2028 run caused a modest dip in her market price from 9 % to 5 % by the end of May as investors reassessed her candidacy.
JD Vance denies running for president in 2028 despite speculation
JD Vance dips to 18%1%
JD Vance publicly stated he is not running for president in 2028, countering market speculation and possibly contributing to a slight decline or stabilization in his market price as uncertainty about his candidacy persisted.
JD Vance announces fourth child on social media
JD Vance dips to 19%2%
JD Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, a personal milestone that may positively influence public perception and market confidence in his candidacy.
Thomas Massie gains slight market support
Thomas Massie rises to 3%2%
Thomas Massie’s price rose modestly from 1% to 3% in early 2026, possibly due to increased political activity or media mentions.
JD Vance briefs media and hosts fraud task force meeting at White House
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
JD Vance's active role in leading a fraud task force and hosting state attorneys general at the White House increased his visibility and credibility, causing his market price to rise from 19% to 22% around early May before stabilizing.
JD Vance denies plans to run for 2028 presidential election
Vance publicly stated he is not running for president and pushed back on speculation about a 2028 campaign, clarifying his focus on vice presidential duties.
Vice President JD Vance cancels Denver event amid political speculation
JD Vance dips to 15%4%
JD Vance canceled a scheduled Denver visit without explanation, fueling speculation about his presidential ambitions and causing a decline in his market price from 19% to 15%.
Vance Briefs Members of the Media on Foreign Policy and National Security
Vance's media briefing highlighted his expanding foreign policy role, reinforcing his credentials for a national leadership position.
JD Vance denies running for president in 2028
JD Vance dips to 18%1%
Vice President JD Vance publicly stated he is not running for president and pushed back on speculation about a 2028 campaign, causing a decline in his market price as uncertainty increased.
Marco Rubio publicly endorses JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio rises to 15%3%
Marco Rubio stated in an NBC News interview that he would be the first to support Vice President JD Vance if Vance runs for president in 2028, signaling party unity and boosting Rubio's profile. This endorsement coincided with Rubio's odds rising in the market.
Josh Shapiro’s campaign stalls after New Jersey primary loss
Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%
Shapiro’s unexpected primary defeat reduced his perceived viability, causing his price to fall from 7% to 3% as the market reassessed his chances.
Ron DeSantis price increases following special session announcement
Ron DeSantis rises to 4%2%
Ron DeSantis's move to call a special legislative session to address redistricting and other policy issues increased his visibility and political influence.
JD Vance adds Trump ally Cliff Sims as national security adviser
JD Vance expanded his national security team by appointing Cliff Sims, a close ally of Donald Trump, signaling a strengthening of his foreign policy credentials. This move likely supported his campaign positioning and contributed to market confidence.
JD Vance appoints Cliff Sims as national security adviser amid global crises
JD Vance rises to 20%1%
JD Vance expanded his national security team by appointing Cliff Sims, a Trump ally, signaling strengthened foreign policy credentials and boosting market confidence in his presidential prospects.
Poll shows Marco Rubio leading JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
Marco Rubio rises to 15%3%
A national poll revealed Marco Rubio surging ahead of JD Vance as the preferred Republican candidate for 2028, reflecting shifting party support and boosting Rubio's market price while pressuring Vance's position.
Ron DeSantis gains momentum after policy speech on immigration enforcement
Ron DeSantis rises to 4%2%
Ron DeSantis delivered a high‑profile speech outlining a new immigration enforcement plan, which resonated with his base and lifted his market price from 2% to 4% over the following days.
Kamala Harris receives Democratic endorsements and boosts for 2028
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
In May 2026, Kamala Harris gained endorsements and support from Democratic leaders and the DNC, which helped increase her visibility and market price as a potential 2028 candidate.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises in Democratic primary polls, sparking speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%1%
A poll placed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez atop the Democratic primary field for the first time, increasing her visibility though her market price slightly declined overall during the period.
Kamala Harris signals consideration of 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris rises to 6%3%
Kamala Harris publicly confirmed she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028, raising her profile and market price from 3% to 6% during April and May.
Jon Ossoff gains momentum after Georgia Senate race win
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
Ossoff’s victory in the Georgia Senate race boosted his national profile, raising his market price from 3% to 4% as he emerged as a rising Democratic star.
JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey game at Winter Olympics with Jake Paul
JD Vance's public appearance at the Winter Olympics alongside influencer Jake Paul increased his visibility and connected him with younger audiences, maintaining his market presence.
Marco Rubio's increased activity fuels speculation of 2028 run
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%
Marco Rubio's political activities and public statements in early 2026 increased speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, reflected in rising market prices.
Democratic National Committee boosts Kamala Harris for 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris rises to 6%1%
The DNC's support for Kamala Harris, including staff shifts to her campaign, increased her visibility and perceived viability as a 2028 candidate, positively affecting her market price.
Marco Rubio says he will not enter 2028 race if JD Vance runs
Marco Rubio rises to 15%1%
Rubio stated he would not enter the 2028 presidential race if JD Vance were to run, reinforcing the idea that Vance is the likely Republican nominee. This reduced speculation about Rubio as a 2028 candidate.
AOC says she’s still weighing a 2028 presidential bid
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%
AOC told The Guardian she was not ruling out a 2028 presidential run, but the interview generated mixed reactions and an apparent dip in enthusiasm among moderate voters, causing her market price to fall from 9 % on 2025‑08‑11 to 5 % on 2026‑06‑04.
JD Vance travels to Iowa to support representative Zach Nunn ahead of 2028 primary
Vance's visit to early primary state Iowa to support representative Zach Nunn was seen as laying groundwork for a presidential run, fueling speculation that he was actively preparing for the 2028 nomination.
JD Vance sees price increase following high-profile March for Life speech
JD Vance rises to 21%2%
JD Vance's continued advocacy for pro-family policies and his high-profile role at the March for Life event bolstered his standing among conservative voters.
Secretary Rubio testifies on Iran war before Senate panel
Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%
Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Iran conflict, drawing media attention and raising his market price from 11 % to 14 % that week.
Josh Shapiro begins 2026 re-election campaign with strong fundraising
Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro announced his 2026 re-election campaign with over $30 million in the bank, positioning himself as a strong potential 2028 presidential contender, though his market price slightly declined.
Kamala Harris campaigns in Las Vegas, criticizing Trump over Iran war
Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%
Kamala Harris held a public event in Las Vegas where she criticized Donald Trump for the ongoing war in Iran, reinforcing her active political presence and positioning herself as a vocal critic of Trump-era policies. This likely boosted her market price by increasing her visibility and appeal to Democratic voters.
Marco Rubio’s price rises amid Winter Olympics and speculation
Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%
Marco Rubio’s price increased from 11% to 15% in early May, likely influenced by his role in the US delegation to the Winter Olympics alongside JD Vance and growing speculation about his presidential ambitions.
Ron DeSantis leaves office in 2027, leaves door open for 2028 run
Ron DeSantis rises to 3%1%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced he will leave office in January 2027 due to term limits but did not rule out a future presidential run in 2028, keeping his candidacy possibility alive despite low market support.
Marco Rubio gains support with positive White House press briefing
Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%
Marco Rubio's role filling in at the White House press briefing and his positive remarks in early May 2026 enhanced his public profile and contributed to a market price increase.
Marco Rubio meets Pope Leo XIV amid US-Vatican tensions
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%
On May 7, 2026, Rubio met with Pope Leo XIV to discuss disagreements including the Iran war, enhancing his diplomatic credentials and contributing to a market price increase to 15%.
Marco Rubio releases campaign-style video sparking 2028 run speculation
Marco Rubio rises to 14%4%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a hopeful campaign-style video articulating his vision for America, fueling speculation and enthusiasm for his 2028 presidential bid and causing a rise in his market price.
Marco Rubio gains recognition as a leading Republican contender
Marco Rubio rises to 14%4%
Marco Rubio's price rose notably in early May, reflecting increased market confidence in his potential as a Republican candidate. Public and party strategist comments positioned Rubio as a strong contender, boosting his market standing.
JD Vance campaigns in Iowa supporting Republican midterm candidate
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
JD Vance's visit to Iowa to support a vulnerable Republican congressman in early May 2026 increased his visibility and market confidence as a 2028 presidential hopeful, contributing to a price rise.
Vice President JD Vance makes Iowa debut campaigning for GOP House member Zach Nunn
Vance's first campaign stop in Iowa signaled serious intent for a 2028 presidential run, boosting his profile in a critical Republican state.
Kamala Harris endorses Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for reelection
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
Kamala Harris publicly endorsed Karen Bass for LA mayor, signaling her continued political influence and potential presidential ambitions, which contributed to a rise in her market price.
Marco Rubio sparks 2028 presidential buzz with White House briefing
Marco Rubio jumps to 14%7%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's optimistic vision for America during a White House briefing generated speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, boosting his market price significantly.
Vance travels to Iowa to support Zach Nunn, fueling 2028 presidential run speculation
Vance's visit to early primary state Iowa signaled he was laying groundwork for a presidential run, boosting his visibility among key voters.
Marco Rubio fills in at White House press briefing, highlighting foreign policy and defense
Marco Rubio rises to 14%4%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's prominent role in White House communications and his remarks on defense and Iran policy increased his visibility and perceived viability as a 2028 candidate, contributing to a price rise from 10% to 14%.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
JD Vance rises to 20%1%
The announcement of Usha Vance's pregnancy was positively received, humanizing JD Vance and possibly contributing to a slight increase in his market price due to favorable public sentiment.
Marco Rubio's White House briefing video sparks 2028 presidential buzz
Marco Rubio rises to 13%3%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio shared a campaign-style video from a White House briefing that went viral, increasing speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions and boosting his market position.
Rubio meets Pope Leo XIV, fuels 2028 presidential buzz
Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%
A Fox News video of Rubio’s brief meeting with Pope Leo XIV, aired on May 5, generated a viral clip that revived his 2028 speculation, lifting his price from 12 % on March 27 to 14 % on May 30.
Marco Rubio plans Vatican visit amid rising tensions between Trump and Pope
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a visit to the Vatican to discuss issues including the Iran war, signaling his growing diplomatic profile and influence. This contributed to a rise in Rubio's market price as he gained stature as a potential presidential contender.
Marco Rubio to meet Pope Leo amid tensions with Trump
Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%
Marco Rubio's scheduled meeting with Pope Leo in early May 2026, following Trump's public criticism of the pontiff, highlighted Rubio's diplomatic role and helped boost his market standing as a presidential contender.
Marco Rubio’s market price rises amid increased political activity
Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%
Marco Rubio’s market price increased from 11% to 14%, likely reflecting growing political engagement and endorsements, including his support for JD Vance’s potential presidential bid.
JD Vance and Jake Paul attend US women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
JD Vance's public appearance with influencer Jake Paul at a US women's hockey game during the Winter Olympics drew media attention, reinforcing his public profile and appeal. This event coincided with a price increase for Vance from 19% to 22%.
Ron DeSantis’ poll numbers dip after Florida tax controversy
Ron DeSantis dips to 4%4%
A controversy over new Florida tax legislation hurt DeSantis’s standing, dropping his price from 8% to 4% as voters expressed concern over economic policy.
Marco Rubio testifies before Senate on Iran policy and foreign affairs budget
Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, defending the Trump administration's Iran policy and budget requests. This high-profile appearance increased Rubio's visibility and market price.
Kamala Harris endorses Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for reelection
Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%
Harris's endorsement of Karen Bass for LA mayor demonstrated her ongoing political influence and engagement, supporting a modest increase in her market price.
JD Vance leads early 2028 Republican primary polls
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
A national poll showed Vice President JD Vance leading the 2028 Republican primary field with 37% support, temporarily boosting his market price.
JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey games at Winter Olympics with family and Jake Paul
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
JD Vance's attendance at U.S. women's hockey games at the Winter Olympics, alongside his family and influencer Jake Paul, increased his public profile and engagement with popular culture, contributing to a brief price increase in his market odds.
Kamala Harris price increases
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
Kamala Harris's market price saw a slight increase, potentially reflecting renewed interest or developments in her political standing as the 2028 cycle approaches.
Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha Vance announce fourth child is on the way
JD Vance rises to 22%4%
The Vances publicly shared that they are expecting a fourth child, a personal milestone that generated positive media coverage and reinforced JD Vance’s family‑focused image, pushing his market price sharply higher.
U.S. delegation led by JD Vance and Marco Rubio to attend 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio rises to 12%3%
The White House announced that Vice President JD Vance will lead an American delegation, joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to the opening ceremony of the Milan‑Cortina Winter Olympics, boosting Rubio’s visibility ahead of the market’s rise in early May.
Josh Shapiro proposes new system to rein in utility corporate profits
Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%
Shapiro's active policy engagement on utility rates and corporate profits highlighted his governance credentials, supporting his market position as a potential 2028 candidate.
Marco Rubio's State Department adopts explicitly Christian messaging
Marco Rubio rises to 12%2%
Reports on April 29, 2026, highlighted Rubio's rebranding of the State Department with Christian symbolism and messaging, signaling a shift in his political identity that may appeal to conservative voters, supporting his market rise to 12%.
Marco Rubio's profile soars to 35% in CPAC straw poll amid Iran and Venezuela operations
Marco Rubio rises to 13%3%
Rubio's increased visibility from military operations and foreign policy roles boosted his polling position and market interest.
Democrats express lukewarm enthusiasm for Kamala Harris's 2028 presidential bid
Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%
Reports emerged that major Democratic donors and party leaders showed limited enthusiasm for backing Kamala Harris in 2028, reflecting skepticism about her appeal to swing voters. This news likely contributed to a modest increase in her market price as it highlighted her ongoing relevance in the race despite challenges.
JD Vance leads US delegation in tough Iran war negotiations
JD Vance rises to 19%1%
Vice President JD Vance took a prominent role leading US talks with Iran in Islamabad, a challenging diplomatic effort given his previous opposition to the war. This high-profile role briefly boosted his visibility and market price, reflecting increased perceived leadership capability.
JD Vance and Marco Rubio lead U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%
JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio attended the opening ceremony of the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics as part of the U.S. delegation, increasing their public visibility and positively impacting their market prices, especially Rubio's which rose from 9% to 14%.
JD Vance attends White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting
JD Vance dips to 18%1%
JD Vance was present during the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting at the Washington Hilton hotel, which may have affected public perception of his safety and preparedness.
Josh Shapiro tests political muscle in 2026 midterm elections
Governor Josh Shapiro actively campaigned to help Democrats gain control of the Pennsylvania state legislature, aiming to strengthen his credentials for a possible 2028 presidential bid.
Kamala Harris delivers keynote speech calling for revival of the American dream
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
Kamala Harris's public keynote speech in Arkansas highlighted her ongoing political engagement and vision, modestly boosting her market price from 3% to 5% as she remained a potential 2028 candidate despite not running for California governor.
JD Vance leads US delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy
JD Vance rises to 19%1%
JD Vance was announced to lead the US delegation to the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics, attending the opening ceremony alongside Marco Rubio. This high-profile diplomatic and public engagement increased market confidence in Vance's prominence and viability as a presidential candidate, boosting his price from 18% to 19%.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to lead delegation at Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%
The White House announced that Vance and Rubio will attend the opening ceremony of the 2026 Milan‑Cortina Winter Games, raising Rubio’s national profile and suggesting strong administration backing, which nudged his market price upward.
Marco Rubio gains recognition as serious 2028 contender among Trump insiders
Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%
Reports emerged that President Trump's close confidantes increasingly view Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a strong 2028 contender due to his adept handling of foreign conflicts and political savvy. Rubio's market odds rose from 11% to 15% during this period.
Marco Rubio travels to Vatican amid rising Trump-pope tensions
Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Rome and Vatican City to ease tensions between President Trump and Pope Leo XIV, increasing his visibility and market confidence, pushing his price from 11% to 15%.
Trump reportedly questions JD Vance's viability as MAGA successor
JD Vance dips to 18%1%
A New York Times report on April 23, 2026, revealed President Trump privately doubting Vice President JD Vance's ability to lead the MAGA movement, causing Vance's market price to dip from 19% to 18% and Rubio's to rise, reflecting shifting support within the Republican base.
Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha expect fourth child
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance and his wife announced on social media that they are expecting a fourth child. The announcement generated a surge of positive coverage about the Vice President's family, pushing JD Vance’s odds up from 20 % to 28 % by early August 2025 and keeping the market above the 20 % floor for the rest of the analysis window.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child on social media
JD Vance dips to 18%1%
JD Vance and second lady Usha Vance revealed they are expecting a son due in July, a personal announcement that briefly lowered Vance's odds as attention shifted to family matters before stabilizing.
Marco Rubio gains visibility as Secretary of State amid Iran talks and White House presence
Marco Rubio rises to 11%2%
On April 23, 2026, Rubio was prominently featured with President Trump in the Oval Office and engaged in diplomatic efforts including Iran negotiations, raising his profile and market odds from 9% to 11% shortly after. His role as a key national security figure increased investor confidence in his candidacy.
Second Lady Usha Vance announces fourth child, boosting JD Vance’s public profile
The pregnancy announcement highlighted the vice president’s family life and pro‑family stance, leading to a modest uptick in JD Vance’s market price as voters perceived increased personal appeal.
Marco Rubio gains prominence as Secretary of State amid Iran crisis
Marco Rubio rises to 11%2%
Marco Rubio's role in national security and diplomacy, especially regarding Iran, increased his visibility and support within the Republican Party, reflected in a rising market price.
President Trump privately questions JD Vance's 2028 presidential prospects
JD Vance dips to 18%1%
Reports emerged that President Trump was doubting Vice President JD Vance's ability to carry the MAGA movement into 2028, favoring Marco Rubio instead. This caused a dip in Vance's market price and a rise for Rubio.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential bid
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 presidential election and began organizing support in key early primary states. This endorsement boosted Vance's perceived viability as a candidate, reflected in a price increase from 19% to 22% around May 1.
Trump privately questions JD Vance's viability, shifts favor toward Marco Rubio
JD Vance dips to 18%1%
Reports emerged that President Donald Trump was doubting Vice President JD Vance's ability to lead the MAGA movement into 2028, comparing him unfavorably to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This caused a temporary dip in Vance's market price and a rise for Rubio as Trump’s influence is critical in Republican primaries.
Appeals court blocks Gavin Newsom's anti-ICE mask law
The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals blocked a California law signed by Newsom requiring federal agents to unmask, citing constitutional issues. This legal defeat negatively impacted Newsom's market price.
Tucker Carlson publicly withdraws support for Donald Trump and apologizes
Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%
Tucker Carlson distanced himself from Trump, apologizing for misleading supporters, which led to a sharp decline in his market price from 50% to around 3%.
JD Vance praises Viktor Orban during Budapest visit ahead of Hungarian elections
JD Vance visited Budapest and praised outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orban as a transformational leader, expressing regret over Orban's defeat. This foreign policy engagement raised Vance's profile and contributed to market interest.
CNN data chief criticizes JD Vance's popularity, noting 21-point approval swing to -18 points
JD Vance rises to 21%3%
CNN analyst Enten reported Vance's net approval rating dropped sharply to -18 points, creating negative sentiment that may have impacted market perception.
JD Vance and Usha Vance announce expecting fourth child
JD Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, a personal milestone that may have positively influenced perceptions of Vance’s family values and electability, supporting his steady market price around 19%.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential bid
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 presidential election and began organizing grassroots support in key early primary states, boosting Vance's perceived viability and causing a temporary price increase.
Jon Ossoff criticized for accepting billionaire donations despite anti-corruption stance
Reports revealed Ossoff's acceptance of donations from billionaires, which contrasted with his anti-corruption rhetoric, possibly causing some market skepticism and price fluctuations.
Criticism mounts over Jon Ossoff's acceptance of billionaire donations
Reports revealed Senator Ossoff accepted significant campaign contributions from billionaires despite his public criticism of wealthy donors, leading to accusations of hypocrisy and impacting his political standing and market price.
Tucker Carlson Apologizes for Supporting Donald Trump and Slams Iran War
Tucker Carlson rises to 3%1%
Tucker Carlson publicly broke with Donald Trump over the administration's military actions in Iran, apologizing to his audience and cementing his exit from the MAGA mainstream.
Vance visits Armenian Genocide Memorial, deletes post referencing genocide
JD Vance dips to 21%2%
The controversy over Vance’s deleted post sparked criticism from diplomatic circles, slightly lowering his market price from 23% to 21% as the episode raised questions about his foreign‑policy judgment.
JD Vance's shadow campaign exposed as he courts billionaire donors
JD Vance rises to 19%1%
JD Vance was reported to be strengthening ties with billionaire donors through high-profile fundraisers, signaling early groundwork for a 2028 presidential run. This news likely contributed to a brief price increase around late April as the market reacted to his growing financial backing.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz over US blockade and fires on ships
The escalation of the Iran-US conflict in the Strait of Hormuz significantly increased geopolitical risk, impacting global energy markets and the political landscape.
Gavin Newsom's PAC spends $1.5 million buying copies of his own book
Gavin Newsom dips to 15%2%
Newsom's political action committee spent over $1.5 million to purchase 67,000 copies of his memoir, inflating sales figures and drawing criticism. This controversy contributed to a dip in his market price from 17% to 15%.
California Medicaid funds deferred over suspected fraud, Vance involved
Gavin Newsom jumps to 16%6%
JD Vance announced steps to defer $1.3 billion in Medicaid funds to California over suspected fraud, showcasing his role in anti-fraud efforts and boosting his credibility on fiscal responsibility, aiding his market position.
JD Vance appeals to MAGA youth amid foreign policy setbacks
JD Vance dips to 15%4%
Vice President JD Vance acknowledged young conservatives' frustration with Middle East policy during a Turning Point USA event, attempting to maintain support despite criticism over his handling of the Iran war and foreign assignments. This corresponded with a decline in his market odds from 19% to 15%.
Gavin Newsom Expresses Private Frustration Over California Gubernatorial Field
Gavin Newsom dips to 17%1%
Leaked private opinions revealed Governor Gavin Newsom's harsh critiques of all remaining Democratic candidates vying to succeed him, highlighting party infighting.
Governor Gavin Newsom calls special election to fill Eric Swalwell’s seat
Gavin Newsom dips to 15%2%
Gavin Newsom's announcement of a special election in California amid a political scandal increased his profile but also introduced uncertainty, leading to a slight price decrease from 17% to 15%.
Gavin Newsom calls special election to fill Eric Swalwell’s congressional seat
Governor Gavin Newsom called a special election to fill the vacant 14th congressional district seat after Eric Swalwell's departure, demonstrating his active role in California politics ahead of his term end, but with limited impact on his presidential prospects.
Erika Kirk skips Turning Point USA event with JD Vance amid security threats
Erika Kirk, associated with JD Vance, missed a key TPUSA event due to serious security threats, while Vance attended. This event highlighted Vance's resilience and public presence, impacting his market perception.
Kamala Harris leads in Yale Youth Poll with 43% favorability among potential 2028 voters
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
Harris ranked highest among potential 2028 candidates in a Yale Youth Poll, signaling strong Democratic momentum and her potential presidential run.
Tucker Carlson launches publishing imprint amid political controversies
Tucker Carlson's announcement of a new publishing imprint marked a shift from his previous media role, but his market price remained low at 3% due to prior controversies.
US-Iran Peace Talks in Islamabad End Without Agreement
High-stakes negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan ended without a formal deal, with Vance stating the Iranian delegation lacked the authority to finalize terms.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance meets Pakistani premier in Islamabad on Iran talks
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
Vice President JD Vance travelled to Islamabad for Iran‑related talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The diplomatic assignment was widely reported as a high‑stakes test for Vance’s foreign‑policy credentials, and the market price for Vance fell from 31 % on 2026‑01‑03 to 27 % on 2026‑01‑17, reflecting dampened expectations for his presidential bid.
Kamala Harris announces new climate initiative, draws bipartisan praise
While the initiative was well‑received, it had little effect on her market price, which remained steady at 6%, reflecting limited impact on her presidential prospects.
JD Vance faces setbacks after failed Iran peace talks and Hungarian election loss
JD Vance dips to 16%3%
JD Vance's role in unsuccessful Iran negotiations and association with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban's electoral defeat led to declining market confidence, with his price dropping from 19% to 16%.
JD Vance's diplomatic efforts in Iran peace talks face setbacks
JD Vance drops to 19%9%
Vice President JD Vance's role in Iran war peace talks was seen as a failure, leading to a decline in his market price from 28% to 19%.
Vice President JD Vance meets with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif for Iran talks in Islamabad
Vance led U.S. delegation in negotiations with Iran, a significant diplomatic event that drew attention to his foreign policy capabilities and potential 2028 campaign.
Kamala Harris hints at possible 2028 presidential run in National Action Network speech
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, during a speech at the National Action Network Convention, suggested she might run for president again in 2028, sparking renewed speculation and slight market interest.
Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential run amid active political engagement
Buttigieg's public appearances and statements about 2028 increased market speculation about his candidacy, contributing to his price movement.
Kamala Harris signals she is thinking about 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly stated she is considering running for president again in 2028, which increased her market price as Democratic voters and donors took note of her potential candidacy.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network Convention
Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%
At the National Action Network Convention, Kamala Harris suggested she might run for president again in 2028, boosting market confidence in her candidacy and causing a slight price increase.
California Medicaid funds deferred over suspected fraud, sparking political dispute
Gavin Newsom jumps to 17%7%
The Trump administration deferred $1.3 billion in Medicaid funds to California over suspected fraud, leading to a dispute with Governor Gavin Newsom. This controversy likely contributed to a rise in Newsom's market price from 10% to 17%.
Kamala Harris hints she may consider a 2028 presidential bid
Kamala Harris dips to 3%1%
During an interview with Rev. Al Sharpton, Harris said she was “thinking about” a 2028 run, but the ambiguous comment coincided with a sharp decline in her market price from 4 % (Mar 26) to 3 % (Apr 13).
Kamala Harris publicly hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
Kamala Harris stated she "might" run for president in 2028 during an interview with Rev. Al Sharpton, receiving strong crowd support and chants of "Run again!" This announcement increased market confidence in her candidacy, reflected in a rise from 3% to 5% odds.
Sexual misconduct allegations against Eric Swalwell disrupt California governor race
Gavin Newsom rises to 18%2%
Allegations against Eric Swalwell led to his suspension from the California governor race, causing uncertainty and shifts in support among candidates, impacting Gavin Newsom's political landscape as he prepares to leave office.
JD Vance leads US delegation in Iran war peace talks in Pakistan
JD Vance dips to 18%1%
Vice President JD Vance headed the US delegation in critical peace negotiations with Iran in Islamabad, raising his profile but also exposing him to scrutiny over the administration's handling of the conflict, contributing to a decline in his market price.
Kamala Harris signals potential 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
Kamala Harris publicly indicated she is considering a 2028 presidential bid during a high-profile civil rights conference, receiving enthusiastic support from attendees. This boosted market confidence in her candidacy, reflected in a price increase from 3% to 5%.
Kamala Harris publicly considers 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
Kamala Harris's public statement in April 2026 that she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028 increased market interest and modestly raised her price in the prediction market.
Kamala Harris says she is ‘thinking about’ running for president in 2028
Kamala Harris dips to 3%3%
Harris publicly said she was “thinking about” a 2028 run at the National Action Network convention, which coincided with her market price sliding from 6 % on July 11 to 3 % by mid‑April as traders weighed her diminished odds after a disappointing 2024 campaign.
Kamala Harris Teases 2028 Presidential Bid at National Action Network Convention
Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris gave her clearest signal yet of a potential 2028 White House run, telling Reverend Al Sharpton she is actively thinking about it.
JD Vance touts Trump administration’s anti-abortion record at March for Life
JD Vance highlighted the Trump administration's achievements against abortion rights at the March for Life rally, reinforcing his conservative credentials and appealing to pro-life voters.
Kamala Harris publicly signals consideration of 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
At the National Action Network Convention, Kamala Harris openly stated she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028, which increased market confidence in her candidacy and led to a price rise from 3% to 5%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez raises $9.6 million in first quarter of 2025
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's record-breaking fundraising haul demonstrated her strong grassroots support, though her market price declined possibly due to strategic positioning and public perception.
Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff raises $12 M for 2026 reelection
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
A NetChoice/Echelon Insights poll showed Ossoff leading his Senate race, and AP reported he raised $12 million for his 2026 reelection, lifting his market price from 3 % to 4 %.
JD Vance appointed 'fraud czar' to investigate election fraud
JD Vance dips to 18%3%
President Trump announced that Vice President JD Vance would lead investigations into election fraud, raising Vance's profile and possibly affecting market perceptions of his political influence.
Vice President JD Vance leads 2028 Republican primary with 37% GOP voter support in Verasight poll
JD Vance rises to 19%1%
A national Verasight poll showed Vance leading with 37% support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, boosting his name recognition and favorable impressions.
Ohio man charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance
JD Vance dips to 19%2%
The arrest of a man for threatening to kill Vance heightened security concerns and political tensions, contributing to a decline in Vance's market price due to perceived risks.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
Usha Vance announced she is pregnant with their fourth child, a personal milestone that humanized JD Vance and may have positively influenced his market perception.
JD Vance to release new book 'Communion' in June
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
The announcement of Vance's upcoming book intensified speculation he is preparing for a 2028 presidential campaign, as book releases are common campaign precursors.
JD Vance announces upcoming book 'Communion' amid 2028 speculation
JD Vance rises to 19%1%
JD Vance's announcement of his new book 'Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith' intensified speculation about a 2028 presidential run, a common pre-campaign move, which influenced market perceptions and price movements.
JD Vance tops Conservative Political Action Conference poll as favored 2028 GOP candidate
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
JD Vance's leading position in the CPAC poll boosted his market price, reflecting increased support and visibility as a potential Republican presidential candidate in 2028.
JD Vance tops CPAC’s straw poll for 2028 presidential race
JD Vance topped the CPAC straw poll for the second year, reinforcing his status as the Republican front‑runner for 2028 and pushing his market probability up to its peak of 32 % in mid‑December 2025 before stabilising at 19 % by the end of the window.
Rubio gains early momentum in CPAC 2028 straw poll
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
Rubio’s showing at the 2026 CPAC straw poll (35 % support) lifted his market price from a low of 5 % in mid‑2025 to 10 % by early March 2026 and to 12 % by mid‑April, reflecting growing Republican donor interest.
Vice President JD Vance tops CPAC straw poll for 2028 Republican presidential candidate
Vance led the CPAC straw poll with 61% support, solidifying his position as the top Republican primary contender early in the cycle.
Rubio trails only Vance in CPAC straw poll, hints at 2028 viability
Marco Rubio jumps to 12%5%
CNN’s coverage of the CPAC straw poll showed Rubio trailing only Vance, sparking a modest rise from 7 % to 10 % in early March and culminating at 12 % on Mar 20 2026.
JD Vance tops CPAC poll for 2028 GOP nomination
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
A Newsweek poll released after the Conservative Political Action Conference showed JD Vance leading a covert GOP poll for the 2028 nomination, pushing his market price up from 19 % to 28 % over the next few weeks.
Vice‑President Vance unveils stricter immigration‑restriction policy
JD Vance dips to 18%2%
Vance promoted a new immigration‑restriction policy, causing his price to fall from 20 % on 2026‑03‑04 to 18 % on 2026‑04‑06 (‑2 points).
Republican donors plot to boost Marco Rubio for 2028 presidential run
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
A group of Republican donors began quietly organizing to support Secretary of State Marco Rubio's potential 2028 presidential bid, increasing his visibility and market price amid speculation of a GOP primary challenge to JD Vance.
JD Vance addresses Turning Point USA convention amid Republican discord
JD Vance rises to 26%2%
JD Vance delivered a speech at Turning Point USA's AmericaFest, advocating inclusivity in conservatism and receiving endorsement from the influential group, which bolstered his standing among Republican voters.
JD Vance visits Armenian Genocide Memorial, deletes social media post
JD Vance dips to 25%2%
JD Vance visited the Armenian Genocide Memorial but deleted a social media post referring to it as 'genocide,' reflecting diplomatic sensitivity and causing mixed reactions that may have influenced his market perception.
JD Vance promotes anti-fraud measures in Medicaid and Medicare programs
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
JD Vance announced new steps in the Trump administration's initiative to combat fraud in federal health programs, including deferring Medicaid funds to California. This bolstered his image as a reformer and likely supported his market price.
Marco Rubio gains in polls as a strong Republican contender
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
Polls in early 2026 showed Rubio increasing support, reflected in market price gains, positioning him as a notable challenger within the Republican field.
Marco Rubio's market price peaks
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%6%
Marco Rubio's market price saw a notable increase, reflecting growing speculation about his political future and potential role in the 2028 election cycle.
Marco Rubio's 2028 presidential campaign speculation peaks at 16%
Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%
Rubio's 2028 presidential campaign speculation peaked at 16% during a period of increased media attention, though he remained non-committal about running. This peak was part of broader market volatility.
Marco Rubio joins Vance at Winter Olympics, raising his profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%8%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s appearance alongside Vance at the Olympics provided Rubio with a visibility boost, coinciding with his price jump from 7% to 15% over the month.
Secretary Rubio secures EU trade‑sanctions accord
Marco Rubio jumps to 14%6%
Rubio announced a breakthrough agreement with the European Union on trade sanctions, boosting his foreign‑policy credentials. The market’s Rubio price jumped from 8 % on 2026‑02‑23 to 14 % on 2026‑03‑11 (+6 points).
Marco Rubio’s poll surge after strong debate performance
Marco Rubio rises to 13%3%
Rubio’s strong showing in a nationally televised debate improved his poll numbers, lifting his market price from 10% to 13% as voters viewed him as a credible alternative.
Marjorie Taylor Greene endorses Tucker Carlson for 2028 presidential run
Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%
In early March 2026, former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly endorsed Tucker Carlson for president in 2028, briefly boosting his market price before it declined sharply due to his own denials and political dynamics.
Fans boo Vice President JD Vance during Olympic opening ceremony
JD Vance dips to 19%2%
During the opening ceremony of the Milan‑Cortina Games, Vance was booed on the stadium screens, a public backlash that pushed his market price down further to 19 % by early March.
Vice President JD Vance booed during Milan Cortina opening ceremony
JD Vance dips to 23%2%
The public jeering of Vance at the Olympics’ opening ceremony hurt his public image, contributing to a further decline in his price from 25% to 23% as voters questioned his popularity abroad.
JD Vance and family attend U.S. women's hockey games at Winter Olympics
JD Vance attended U.S. women's hockey games at the Winter Olympics with his family, maintaining a positive public image and visibility during the Olympics, which supported his steady market presence.
Marco Rubio signals support for JD Vance's potential 2028 run
Marco Rubio rises to 10%2%
Marco Rubio publicly acknowledged JD Vance as the clear front-runner for the Republican nomination and indicated he would support Vance if he runs, boosting Vance's market position and Rubio's own prospects.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, detained by Secret Service
JD Vance rises to 25%2%
An attack on JD Vance's home brought national attention to his security and personal life, eliciting public sympathy and reinforcing his profile, which helped stabilize his market price.
JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey games at Winter Olympics with Jake Paul
JD Vance dips to 19%1%
JD Vance's attendance at high-profile Olympic events with popular figures like Jake Paul increased his public exposure, potentially influencing market perceptions positively.
JD Vance and Jake Paul attend US women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics
JD Vance rises to 23%2%
JD Vance’s public appearance with Jake Paul at the Winter Olympics increased his media exposure and connected him with younger audiences, slightly boosting his market price.
JD Vance attends US women's hockey games at Winter Olympics with Jake Paul
JD Vance dips to 18%3%
JD Vance's public appearances with popular figures like Jake Paul at the Winter Olympics helped maintain his public profile, though with limited direct market impact.
Turning Point USA reaffirms support for JD Vance amid conservative discord
JD Vance rises to 28%2%
Turning Point USA publicly reaffirmed its support for JD Vance during its AmericaFest convention, solidifying his position as a leading conservative candidate.
JD Vance announces family expansion with fourth child expected
JD Vance rises to 21%2%
The announcement that Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha are expecting their fourth child was positively received, reinforcing his family-oriented image and contributing to a modest increase in his market price.
JD Vance criticized for refusing to denounce bigotry at Turning Point USA event
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
JD Vance's speech at Turning Point USA, where he declined to condemn antisemitism and bigotry, sparked controversy within conservative circles, leading to a decline in his market price as some supporters questioned his stance.
JD Vance touts Trump administration’s record against abortion at March for Life rally
JD Vance rises to 30%3%
Vance's public endorsement of the Trump administration's anti-abortion policies at a major rally reinforced his conservative credentials, impacting his market price positively among right-leaning supporters.
JD Vance campaigns with Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin
JD Vance dips to 25%2%
JD Vance actively campaigned for Republican Derrick Van Orden, emphasizing tax cuts and rural healthcare, demonstrating his ongoing political engagement and boosting his visibility ahead of 2028, which supported his market price.
Officials defer $1.3 billion in California Medicaid funds over suspected fraud
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%4%
Vice President JD Vance announced a deferral of $1.3 billion in Medicaid funding to California due to suspected fraud, highlighting his role in anti-fraud efforts and impacting Gavin Newsom's market price negatively while slightly benefiting Rubio's position.
Vance pulls out of Munich conference after 2025 controversy
JD Vance dips to 21%3%
Vice‑President JD Vance announced he would skip the Munich Security Conference after a heated 2025 speech. The move was interpreted as a diplomatic setback for the administration and caused Vance’s market price to fall from 24 % on 2026‑02‑19 to 21 % on 2026‑03‑07.
Gavin Newsom wins California gubernatorial primary, gains national attention
Gavin Newsom rises to 14%4%
Newsom’s primary victory and renewed national profile boosted his perceived electability, raising his price from 10% to 14% as the market saw him as a viable contender.
Gov. Newsom says some are talking about Israel as an apartheid state
Gavin Newsom rises to 23%1%
Newsom's remarks at the World Economic Forum questioning Israel's policies intensified debate about his foreign‑policy stance, nudging his market price upward from 22 % to 23 % before a gradual decline later in the year.
Vice President JD Vance publicly defends his wife against racist attacks
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
JD Vance strongly condemned racist attacks against his wife Usha Vance, including those by right-wing podcaster Nick Fuentes, asserting a firm stance that likely bolstered his support among moderate conservatives and his base, stabilizing his market price.
Vance's 2028 presidential run speculation intensifies as Rubio confirms support
Vance and Rubio became central figures in 2028 nomination speculation, with Rubio stating he would not enter the race if Vance did.
JD Vance described as 'the strongest likely contender' for 2028 Republican nomination
JD Vance drops to 21%7%
A POLITICO article described JD Vance as the top Republican contender for the 2028 nomination, highlighting his growing influence in Republican circles.
JD Vance's 2028 presidential run speculation intensifies as Trump's potential successor
A POLITICO article described Vance as 'the strongest likely contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination' and noted that Trump had declined to endorse either Vance or Marco Rubio. This solidified Vance as the central figure in 2028 Republican succession speculation.
JD Vance's foreign policy stance draws global attention
JD Vance's aggressive foreign policy statements, including criticism of European countries, increased his profile among global power players.
Vice President JD Vance watches women’s Olympic hockey with Jake Paul
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
Vance’s appearance with influencer Jake Paul at a U.S. women's hockey game during the Olympics generated extensive media coverage, but also sparked criticism, leading to a modest dip in his market price from 30 % to 27 %.
JD Vance and Jake Paul attend U.S. women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vance's attendance at a high-profile Olympic event alongside influencer Jake Paul increased his public profile and positively affected his market price, reflecting broader appeal and media coverage.
Marco Rubio delivers critical speech at Munich Security Conference urging Europe to change
Marco Rubio jumps to 23%13%
Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference, emphasizing the need for Europe to change, enhanced his foreign policy credentials and contributed to a price increase from 10% to 23%.
Marco Rubio’s Munich speech boosts his foreign‑policy profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 12%5%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a high‑profile speech at the Munich Security Conference, positioning himself as a key foreign‑policy voice. The appearance coincided with a rise in his market price from 7 % on 2026‑02‑07 to 12 % on 2026‑03‑14, the highest level recorded in the analysis period.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez commits not to fund weapons for Israel
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%2%
At a New York City forum, Ocasio-Cortez pledged not to vote for military funding for Israel, reflecting her progressive stance on foreign policy and impacting her market price negatively.
Rubio calls Europe a friend but says it must change at Munich conference
Marco Rubio jumps to 10%5%
Rubio’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, emphasizing a strong U.S. stance on Europe, was widely covered and boosted his visibility as a national figure, lifting his market price from 5 % in early February to 10 % by early March.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez criticizes US military aid to Israel at Munich Security Conference
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 6%3%
AOC's statement that US military aid to Israel enabled genocide in Gaza sparked controversy and criticism, contributing to a decline in her market price from 9% to 6%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez criticizes U.S. military aid to Israel at Munich Security Conference
At the Munich Security Conference, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez called for reconsideration of U.S. military aid to Israel, raising her profile on foreign policy and energizing her progressive base, impacting her market price.
AOC faces backlash after Munich Security Conference remarks
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 6%3%
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez sparked controversy with a speech at the Munich Security Conference that was widely criticized. The negative reaction coincided with a decline in her market price from 9 % on 2026‑02‑10 to 6 % on 2026‑04‑13.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy
JD Vance led the U.S. delegation at the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics opening ceremony, maintaining his public profile internationally. Despite being booed by some spectators, this event kept Vance in the spotlight during early 2026.
JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey game with Jake Paul at Winter Olympics
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
JD Vance's attendance at a high-profile U.S. women's hockey game alongside influencer Jake Paul at the Winter Olympics increased his media exposure and public engagement, potentially boosting his market appeal.
JD Vance and Jake Paul watch U.S. women’s hockey at Winter Olympics
JD Vance dips to 23%2%
Vance’s appearance with influencer‑boxer Jake Paul at a U.S. women’s hockey game during the Milan‑Cortina Winter Olympics raised his profile among younger voters and caused a modest rebound for his market price from 25 % back to 23 % the following week.
JD Vance hints at 2028 presidential bid after midterms in Fox News interview
JD Vance jumps to 30%5%
In a February 6, 2026 interview, JD Vance suggested he might consider a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterm elections, which likely influenced market optimism and price increases for his candidacy.
Marco Rubio attends Winter Olympics opening ceremony as U.S. Secretary of State
Marco Rubio jumps to 14%5%
Rubio’s high‑visibility diplomatic role at the Olympics raised his public profile, coinciding with a price jump from 9% to 14% by May.
JD Vance and Marco Rubio attend Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance rises to 29%1%
JD Vance and Marco Rubio's attendance at the 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony increased their national visibility and political stature, contributing to modest price gains for both candidates.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance's role leading the U.S. delegation at the Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy elevated his public profile and showcased his diplomatic engagement, supporting a slight positive market sentiment.
JD Vance leads US delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance rises to 26%1%
JD Vance's prominent role at the Winter Olympics opening ceremony alongside Marco Rubio increased his visibility and reinforced his stature as a national leader, positively impacting his market position.
JD Vance and Marco Rubio join U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio rises to 9%2%
The White House announced that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend the opening ceremony of the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy. Rubio’s high‑visibility role boosted his market price from 7% to 9% by early January and helped sustain his rise through March.
Supreme Court hears case on Republican challenge to campaign‑finance limits, featuring JD Vance
JD Vance dips to 25%2%
The hearing highlighted Vance’s potential 2028 run, prompting speculation about his candidacy and causing a modest dip in his price from 27% to 25% as the market reassessed his electability.
Kamala Harris launches new digital organizing effort for 2026 midterms
Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris revived her campaign social media as a digital organizing project to mobilize activists ahead of the 2026 midterms, signaling continued political engagement and potential 2028 ambitions.
Vice President JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan
JD Vance dips to 21%3%
Vance’s appearance at the opening ceremony and his public support for U.S. athletes raised his visibility on the world stage, but mixed reactions—including boos—tempered the boost, coinciding with a modest price dip from 24% to 21% as the market reassessed his broader appeal.
Marco Rubio Steps Down as Acting U.S. Archivist to Comply with Vacancies Act
Marco Rubio gave up his acting role at the National Archives after reaching the 300-day legal limit, focusing fully on his Secretary of State duties.
Josh Shapiro calls for data centers to pay for their own power amid criticism
Governor Josh Shapiro's policy shift to require data centers to pay for their own power marked a notable stance on energy and consumer prices, impacting his political profile and market price.
Gavin Newsom’s memoir hints at 2028 presidential ambitions
Gavin Newsom jumps to 17%7%
Newsom publicly announced the release of his memoir “Young Man in a Hurry” and hinted at a possible 2028 presidential run. The announcement sparked a surge in his market price, which rose from 13 % on 2025‑07‑11 to a peak of 23 % on 2025‑09‑07 before settling at 17 % by the analysis end.
Trump and Vance impose tariffs, signaling policy agenda
JD Vance dips to 25%2%
President Trump and Vice President Vance imposed tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, signaling a strong policy stance that may have influenced perceptions of Vance's leadership and electability.
Poll shows Trump Jr. gaining on JD Vance in GOP primary race
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
Polls released in early 2026 indicated that Donald Trump Jr. was gaining ground on JD Vance in the Republican primary, narrowing Vance's lead and affecting market dynamics.
JD Vance criticizes far-left and local officials over Minneapolis unrest
JD Vance dips to 25%2%
Vance blamed far-left groups and local officials for unrest in Minneapolis, reinforcing his law-and-order stance and appealing to conservative voters.
JD Vance and Usha Vance to welcome fourth child in July 2026
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
The Vice President announced that he and his wife will welcome their fourth child in July 2026. The personal‑family news boosted Vance’s public profile and lifted his market price from 19 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 28 % on 2025‑08‑04, marking the first major upward swing.
Judge keeps vandalism suspect in JD Vance’s Ohio home jailed
JD Vance dips to 23%2%
A federal judge ordered the suspect in the vandalism of Vance’s Ohio home to remain in jail, renewing media focus on security concerns and contributing to a price decline from 25 % to 23 % for Vance.
Kamala Harris confirms she will not run for California governor in 2026
Kamala Harris dips to 5%1%
Harris's decision to not run for governor removed a potential candidacy from the field, stabilizing her market price and focusing speculation on a possible 2028 presidential run.
Vandalism incident at JD Vance’s Ohio home draws national attention
The break‑in and subsequent legal proceedings kept Vance in the news cycle, temporarily stabilizing his market price at 27% as the incident highlighted security concerns without materially affecting his campaign momentum.
Marco Rubio publicly supports JD Vance for 2028 presidential run
Marco Rubio jumps to 10%5%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed support for JD Vance's potential 2028 presidential bid, reinforcing Vance's position within the Republican Party and contributing to a modest increase in Rubio's own market price.
Ohio man charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
An Ohio man was charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance, raising security concerns and possibly impacting market perceptions of Vance's vulnerability and public profile.
JD Vance and Usha Vance announce expecting fourth child
JD Vance rises to 30%3%
The announcement of JD and Usha Vance expecting their fourth child highlighted Vance's family values and pro-family stance, positively influencing his market price by reinforcing his appeal to conservative voters.
Gov. Newsom pushes Proposition 50 to redraw California districts
Gavin Newsom rises to 23%2%
Newsom announced a new legislative package to redraw California’s congressional districts (Proposition 50) ahead of a special election, sparking speculation about his presidential ambitions and lifting his market price from 21 % on 2025‑12‑15 to 23 % on 2026‑01‑21.
Josh Shapiro launches 2026 re-election campaign amid 2028 presidential speculation
Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%
Shapiro's re-election campaign launch and strong fundraising position fueled speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, influencing his market price.
Josh Shapiro alleges vetting team questioned him about being Israeli agent
Josh Shapiro dips to 4%3%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro revealed in his memoir that Kamala Harris' vetting team asked him if he had ever been an Israeli agent, a controversial claim that may have influenced his market price and public image.
Jon Ossoff enters 2026 with $25 million cash on hand for Senate race
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
Ossoff's record fundraising positioned him as a leading contender, increasing market confidence in his political future.
Jon Ossoff enters 2026 race with $25 million cash on hand
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
Ossoff’s campaign reported over $25 million cash on hand, reinforcing his fundraising advantage and prompting a small rise in his market price in January.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential bid
JD Vance rises to 30%3%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin publicly supported Vice President JD Vance as a strong candidate for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, boosting Vance's profile and market price.
CNN analyst praises JD Vance's lead in GOP primary polls
JD Vance dips to 28%2%
CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten highlighted JD Vance's strong lead in early GOP primary polls, likening his position to a historic performance and reinforcing market confidence in his nomination chances.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin backs JD Vance for 2028 presidential nomination
JD Vance rises to 31%4%
Youngkin publicly endorsed Vance as a “great nominee” on Fox News Sunday. The endorsement coincided with Vance’s price jumping from 27 % (Jan 3) to 31 % (Jan 31) and a high of 32 % on Dec 20 2025.
Ohio man charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance
JD Vance dips to 26%1%
An Ohio man was charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance, highlighting security threats and possibly affecting public perception of Vance's vulnerability.
Rubio testifies on Iran policy before Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Marco Rubio rises to 14%4%
Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Iran conflict, receiving bipartisan attention that spurred a jump in his market price in early January.
Josh Shapiro announces 2026 re-election campaign amid 2028 speculation
Josh Shapiro rises to 4%1%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro launched his 2026 re-election campaign, positioning himself for a potential 2028 presidential run by demonstrating political strength in a key swing state.
Josh Shapiro launches re‑election bid, foreshadowing 2028 ambitions
Josh Shapiro drops to 2%5%
Shapiro’s launch of his 2026 re‑election campaign, emphasizing a fight against “chaos and toxicity,” coincided with a sharp decline in his market price from 7 % on July 11 to 2 % by April 13, as the market interpreted the move as a focus on the governorship rather than a 2028 bid.
Governor Shapiro launches 2026 re‑election bid, eyes 2028 White House
Josh Shapiro rises to 3%1%
Shapiro officially launched his 2026 re‑election campaign, framing it as a stepping‑stone to a 2028 presidential run, which increased speculation and caused a modest rise in his market price.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has $30 M in the bank heading into 2026
Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%
Shapiro’s campaign announced more than $30 million on hand, positioning him as a strong 2028 contender. The market price fell from 7 % to 3 % as the surge in cash was interpreted as a focus on a governor’s race rather than a presidential bid.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom proposes shifting K-12 education power
Gavin Newsom dips to 17%1%
Newsom proposed reforms to shift more power over California’s K-12 education system to the governor and State Board of Education, sparking debate and impacting his political profile ahead of a potential presidential run.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro launches 2026 re‑election campaign
Josh Shapiro drops to 2%5%
Shapiro’s formal announcement of a 2026 re‑election bid (and implicit 2028 ambition) was covered by AP and NBC, coinciding with his market price falling from 7 % to 3 % as traders discounted his presidential prospects.
Gov. Josh Shapiro launches 2026 re‑election campaign
Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%
Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro announced his 2026 re‑election bid, emphasizing a $30 million cash cushion. The news lifted his market price from 7 % on 2025‑07‑11 to a low of 3 % on 2026‑06‑06 as attention shifted to his gubernatorial race.
Marco Rubio gains momentum after CPAC straw‑poll boost
Marco Rubio jumps to 12%7%
Rubio’s appearance at the CPAC straw poll (reported Jan 7 2026) showed a rise in his support, moving his price from 5 % (Oct 21 2025) to 10 % (Mar 14 2026) and peaking at 12 % on Mar 20 2026.
Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro says he has $30 M in the bank
Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%
Shapiro announced his campaign had more than $30 million in the bank, prompting speculation about a 2028 run and pulling his market price down from 7 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 3 % on 2026‑06‑04 as the market shifted toward other Democratic contenders.
Supreme Court hears case on political spending limits, Vance joins challenge
JD Vance dips to 30%2%
Vance’s involvement in a high‑stakes Supreme Court case signaled potential future presidential ambitions, nudging his price from 32% to 30% as investors reassessed his political trajectory.
Gov. Shapiro announces re‑election bid with $30 M war chest
Josh Shapiro drops to 2%5%
Shapiro announced his re‑election campaign and highlighted raising more than $30 million cash on hand, boosting his market perception and pushing his price up from 7 % in July 2025 to a brief high of 13 % on 2025‑12‑06 before declining to 2 % by April 2026.
Josh Shapiro announces strong fundraising with over $30 million for 2026 re-election
Josh Shapiro rises to 4%1%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro reported a strong financial position for his 2026 re-election campaign, signaling potential for a 2028 presidential run and supporting a slight market price increase from 3% to 4%.
Josh Shapiro reports over $30 million cash on hand for 2026 re-election campaign
Josh Shapiro rises to 7%3%
Governor Josh Shapiro announced a strong financial position with more than $30 million raised, signaling serious presidential ambitions and boosting his market price.
Man vandalizes JD Vance's Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
An armed man vandalized Vice President JD Vance's home in Ohio, causing significant damage and leading to federal charges. This incident highlighted security concerns around Vance and briefly drew public attention, though it did not significantly affect market prices.
Man arrested after vandalizing JD Vance’s Ohio home
JD Vance dips to 29%1%
A security incident involving vandalism at JD Vance’s residence brought media attention and sympathy, reinforcing his public profile and possibly affecting market perceptions of his resilience and security.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
Vance’s role as head of the American Olympic delegation raised his international profile and signaled strong administration support, nudging his price upward from 31% to 27% as investors reassessed his electability.
Vandalism at JD Vance's Ohio home
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
An incident involving vandalism at JD Vance's home in Ohio drew significant media attention, highlighting the security challenges faced by high-profile political figures.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance's Ohio home and is detained
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
A man armed with a hammer vandalized Vice President JD Vance's Ohio residence, causing significant damage. This security incident brought media attention to Vance's personal safety and may have influenced market perceptions of his public profile and resilience.
Suspect arrested for vandalism at JD Vance’s Ohio home
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
A suspect was arrested and ordered to stay in jail for vandalizing JD Vance’s home, raising security concerns but also potentially garnering sympathy and support for Vance.
Man vandalizes Vice President JD Vance’s Ohio home, arrested by Secret Service
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
A security incident where a man broke windows and damaged property at Vance's Ohio residence led to increased media attention and market volatility, reflecting concerns about his safety and political stability.
Marco Rubio leads operation to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro
Marco Rubio jumps to 10%6%
Rubio's leadership in a high-profile foreign policy operation increased his stature and market support as a presidential contender.
U.S. Forces Capture Venezuelan Dictator Nicolás Maduro in Operation Led by Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio jumps to 10%5%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio emerged as a key foreign policy power player following the successful capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, boosting his 2028 prospects.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, Secret Service detains suspect
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
A man was arrested after vandalizing Vance’s Ohio residence, an incident that raised security concerns and temporarily dampened Vance’s momentum, contributing to a price decline from 31% on Jan 4 to 27% by Jan 18.
Marco Rubio appointed Secretary of State, boosting his presidential prospects
Marco Rubio jumps to 14%7%
Marco Rubio's appointment as Secretary of State increased his visibility and support among Republican voters, lifting his market price from 7% to 14% over several months.
Poll shows JD Vance with mixed favorability but remains GOP front-runner
A poll showed JD Vance with 50% unfavorable and 37% favorable ratings, yet he remained the clear front-runner among GOP figures, sustaining his market position.
Polymarket poll puts JD Vance ahead of Newsom in early 2028 projections
JD Vance rises to 32%4%
A Polymarket‑linked poll released on Dec 29 2025 showed JD Vance at 31 % versus Gavin Newsom at 17 %. The strong showing for Vance lifted his market price from the low‑20s to a peak of 32 % on Dec 20 2025, while Newsom’s price rose modestly.
Poll shows JD Vance dominating early 2028 presidential projections
JD Vance jumps to 32%13%
A December 29, 2025 poll indicated JD Vance leading with 31% to Gavin Newsom's 17%, reinforcing Vance's position as the early favorite in the 2028 presidential race. This poll likely contributed to Vance's price increase in the market.
AOC poll shows narrow win over JD Vance in hypothetical 2028 matchup
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 6%3%
A poll released Dec 29 2025 showed AOC leading Vance 51 % to 49 %. The unexpected lead pushed her price down from 9 % to 6 % by Apr 13 2026, reflecting market disappointment in her odds versus the Republican front‑runner.
Poll shows JD Vance leading Gavin Newsom 31% to 17% in early 2028 projections
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
A poll released in late December 2025 showed JD Vance dominating early 2028 presidential projections with 31% support compared to Gavin Newsom's 17%, reinforcing Vance's frontrunner status and influencing market prices accordingly.
Tucker Carlson named 2025 Antisemite of the Year by watchdog group StopAntisemitism
The designation highlighted Carlson's repeated amplification of antisemitic narratives, severely damaging his public image and market standing.
Influencer argues Gavin Newsom will beat JD Vance in 2028 election
Gavin Newsom rises to 18%1%
A viral discussion highlighting Newsom's favorable public image compared to Vance's contributed to increased market confidence in Newsom's chances, reflected in price gains.
JD Vance leads early 2028 presidential election odds with 31%
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
Prediction markets and polling data in late December 2025 showed JD Vance as the early favorite for the 2028 presidency with 31% odds, reflecting his growing momentum and market confidence.
CNN analyst Harry Enten highlights JD Vance's commanding GOP lead
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
CNN's Harry Enten praised JD Vance's dominant position in early GOP 2028 polls and prediction markets, noting Vance's 48% chance in markets and 51% in New Hampshire polls, reinforcing his frontrunner status and market confidence.
JD Vance plans nationwide midterm campaign to build 2028 presidential support
JD Vance dips to 16%3%
Vance's active campaigning and alignment with Trump supporters aimed to solidify his base and improve his presidential prospects.
JD Vance campaigns coast to coast supporting midterms, building 2028 base
Vice President JD Vance actively campaigned nationwide for Republican midterm candidates, strengthening his political network and laying groundwork for a potential 2028 presidential run, which supported his market standing.
Tucker Carlson’s viewership plunges after leaving Fox News
Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%
Following his departure from Fox News and the launch of an independent show, Carlson’s audience collapsed, driving his market price from a high of 50 % in September 2025 down to 3 % by 2026‑06‑04.
JD Vance wins AmericaFest 2028 straw poll with overwhelming support
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
JD Vance secured 84.2% support in the Turning Point USA AmericaFest straw poll, dwarfing other contenders and solidifying his grassroots backing, which corresponded with his market price holding near peak levels.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, Secret Service detains suspect
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
News that a man broke windows at Vance’s Ohio home and was detained by the Secret Service sparked concerns over security and image, pulling Vance’s price down from a 30 % peak to 27 % in early Jan 2026.
JD Vance dominates AmericaFest 2028 straw poll with 84.2% support
JD Vance rises to 31%3%
JD Vance secured overwhelming support in the AmericaFest 2028 straw poll, receiving 84.2% backing from grassroots conservatives, significantly outpacing rivals like Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis. This solidified his position as the GOP frontrunner and boosted market confidence.
JD Vance dominates Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest 2028 straw poll
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
JD Vance secured 84.2% support in a straw poll at AmericaFest, far outpacing rivals like Marco Rubio, signaling strong grassroots conservative backing and boosting his market odds significantly.
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for 2028 president
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, publicly endorsed Vance, signaling strong conservative organizational support for his 2028 campaign.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential run
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative organization, publicly supported JD Vance's 2028 presidential ambitions, reinforcing his position and contributing to price stability despite some later declines.
Jon Ossoff urges Jewish resilience amid global antisemitic attacks
Senator Ossoff delivered a speech at his childhood synagogue during Hanukkah, encouraging Jewish resilience following a deadly antisemitic attack in Australia. This public engagement highlighted his identity and community ties, slightly influencing his market perception.
Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidency at Turning Point USA convention
JD Vance jumps to 30%11%
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk publicly endorsed Vance, launching organized early support for him in key 2028 states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
Jon Ossoff urges Jewish community to stay resilient amid global antisemitic attacks
Ossoff's public support for the Jewish community following antisemitic violence highlighted his leadership and may have positively influenced his market standing among moderate and minority voters.
JD Vance’s family expecting fourth child draws positive public reaction
JD Vance dips to 31%1%
The announcement of Vance’s fourth child generated favorable media coverage and reinforced his pro‑family image, contributing to a modest rise in his market price from 32% to 31% as the news circulated.
Vance and Rubio to lead U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio jumps to 10%5%
The White House announced that Vice President Vance would lead a U.S. delegation, joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to attend the opening ceremony of the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy, giving Rubio a brief spotlight and nudging his market price upward.
Gov. Newsom unveils $200 M instant EV rebate plan
Gavin Newsom rises to 18%4%
Newsom released a $200 million instant EV‑rebate proposal aiming to revive California’s electric‑vehicle market. The plan was praised by clean‑energy groups, lifting his market price from 14 % back up to 18 % by early January 2026.
Secretary Rubio discusses Ukraine, Gaza peace at year‑end briefing
Marco Rubio rises to 8%3%
Rubio’s end‑of‑year press conference on Ukraine and Gaza peace efforts provided a brief uptick, moving his price from 5 % on 2025‑12‑05 to 8 % on 2025‑12‑19 (+3 points).
Tucker Carlson Named 2025 'Antisemite of the Year' by Watchdog Group
Following intense backlash over his platforming of far-right figures and controversial comments on Israel, Tucker Carlson was named 'Antisemite of the Year' by StopAntisemitism, severely damaging his mainstream political viability.
Jon Ossoff enters 2026 race with $25 million on hand
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
CBS reported that Ossoff entered the 2026 Senate race with a $25 million war chest, lifting his probability from 3 % to 4 % between early February and mid‑March 2026 as the market reacted to the cash advantage.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds marathon news conference on foreign policy
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
Rubio's extensive media engagement on key international issues reinforced his stature as a Trump administration power player, slightly boosting his market price from 7% to 10% by early 2026.
Prominent Democrat claims she would 'stomp' JD Vance in 2028 race
JD Vance dips to 28%2%
A prominent Democrat publicly stated confidence in defeating JD Vance, reflecting Democratic opposition and possibly influencing market perceptions of Vance's general election chances.
Jon Ossoff urges Jewish community to stay resilient amid global antisemitic attacks
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
Ossoff's public support for Jewish resilience and faith amid rising antisemitism bolstered his standing among key voter groups.
Poll shows Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez narrowly ahead of JD Vance in hypothetical 2028 matchup
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%
A December 2025 Argument/Verasight poll showed AOC leading Vance 51% to 49% in a hypothetical general election, causing a slight market dip for Vance and a modest rise for Ocasio-Cortez.
Turning Point USA Endorses JD Vance for President in 2028
JD Vance drops to 27%5%
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, officially endorsed Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 presidential race, signaling early institutional backing from a powerful conservative machine.
Tucker Carlson named 2025 Antisemite of the Year by watchdog group
Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%
Media personality Tucker Carlson was designated 2025 Antisemite of the Year by StopAntisemitism, highlighting his controversial rhetoric and platforming of antisemitic figures, causing his market price to collapse from 50% to 3%.
Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for president
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
The endorsement of JD Vance by Erika Kirk, leader of Turning Point USA, provided a major boost to his campaign, signaling strong organizational support for his potential 2028 bid.
AOC beats JD Vance in hypothetical 2028 matchup poll
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%
A poll showing AOC beating JD Vance 51‑49 % lowered her market price from 9 % on July 11 to 5 % by April 13, as traders priced in her rising competitiveness and a potential shift toward other Democratic contenders.
StopAntisemitism names Tucker Carlson 'Antisemite of the Year'
Tucker Carlson plunges to 2%48%
Following Carlson’s controversial remarks that were labeled antisemitic by StopAntisemitism, his viewership collapsed; the market price for Carlson plummeted from 50 % to 2 % within weeks, reflecting loss of political influence.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez claims she would 'stomp' JD Vance in 2028 race after poll shows her narrowly ahead
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%1%
Following a poll showing AOC slightly leading Vance, she confidently stated she would decisively defeat him in a 2028 matchup. This bold statement and poll results caused a temporary increase in her market price and a slight dip for Vance.
Tucker Carlson shocks conservative audience by defending Islam at AmericaFest 2025
Tucker Carlson rises to 3%1%
Carlson's unexpected defense of Islam and criticism of Christian Zionists alienated his conservative base, further eroding his support.
Tucker Carlson publicly apologizes for misleading support of Donald Trump
Tucker Carlson plunges to 2%48%
Tucker Carlson's public apology for misleading people into supporting Donald Trump marked a significant shift in his political stance, leading to a sharp decline in his market price as his influence waned.
Vice President Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid racist backlash
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
JD Vance strongly defended his wife Usha Vance against racist attacks, asserting a firm stance that may have solidified his support among certain voter groups, reflected in market price stability.
Supreme Court hears case on political spending limits involving JD Vance
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
Vance’s participation in a high‑stakes Supreme Court case signaled potential 2028 ambitions, nudging his price upward from 30% to 31% as investors reassessed his electability.
JD Vance leads GOP primary polls and gains strong prediction market support
JD Vance jumps to 30%11%
JD Vance surged in GOP primary polls and prediction markets, becoming the clear frontrunner with odds improving to around 30%, reflecting his dominance in early Republican contests.
Vice President Vance condemns attacks on his wife Usha Vance
JD Vance publicly denounced racist attacks on his wife, Usha Vance, reinforcing his personal and political stance, which may have bolstered his support among certain voter groups.
Kamala Harris maintains steady support amid 2028 speculation
Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%
Kamala Harris’s market price remained stable around 3-6%, reflecting steady but limited movement in her presidential prospects during this period.
Sen. Jon Ossoff backs moderate budget proposal in Senate
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
A minor statement by Senator Jon Ossoff endorsing a moderate budget plan was covered in a brief news brief, nudging his market price up from 3 % to 4 % for a short period before returning to 3 % by early May 2026.
Vice President JD Vance publicly defends his wife against racist attacks
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
JD Vance strongly condemned attacks on his wife Usha Vance, including racist comments by right-wing podcaster Nick Fuentes, reinforcing his public image as a protective and principled figure, which helped stabilize his market price.
Vance and Rubio lead U.S. delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
The high‑profile appearance of Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Milan‑Cortina opening ceremony raised Rubio’s visibility and credibility as a national figure, contributing to his price rise from 7% to 10% by early January 2026.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro raises $30 M, eyes 2028 White House bid
Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%
NBC reported Shapiro’s $30 million cash haul and his hinted 2028 ambitions, which lifted his price from 7 % in July to 14 % by late May 2026 before falling to 3 % as the race progressed.
Jon Ossoff faces criticism for progressive stances amid 2026 reelection campaign
Jon Ossoff dips to 2%2%
Senator Jon Ossoff's alignment with progressive policies and votes to prolong the 2025 government shutdown drew criticism from Republicans and some constituents, contributing to a price decline from 4% to 2%.
Josh Shapiro's residence targeted in arson attack, raising security concerns
Josh Shapiro drops to 2%5%
The arson attack on Shapiro's home and subsequent security upgrades raised questions about his political vulnerability, contributing to a decline in his market price from 7% to 2%.
Gavin Newsom wins California special gubernatorial election in landslide
Gavin Newsom jumps to 22%8%
A surprising win by Governor Gavin Newsom in the 2025 California special gubernatorial election, seen as a boost for the Democratic brand, lifted his market price from 14 % to 22 % over a two‑week span.
Gavin Newsom receives celebrity-like reception at Democratic National Committee meetings
Newsom's high-profile treatment at the DNC meetings enhanced his image as a leading Democratic contender, boosting his market price as a potential 2028 nominee.
JD Vance defends Trump‑era immigration policy amid rising criticism
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
During a televised press conference Vance defended the administration’s hard‑line immigration stance, drawing criticism from progressive groups. The backlash caused the market’s JD Vance price to fall from 31 % on 2025‑12‑12 to 27 % on 2026‑01‑14 (‑4 points).
Turning Point USA backs JD Vance for 2028 presidential race
JD Vance jumps to 30%5%
Turning Point USA’s CEO Erika Kirk publicly endorsed Vance for president at AmericaFest, signaling early institutional backing. The endorsement lifted JD Vance’s price from 25 % (early Dec) to a high of 30 % later that month.
JD Vance faces Supreme Court hearing on campaign finance case linked to 2028 ambitions
JD Vance dips to 26%2%
The high-profile case spotlighted Vance's potential 2028 presidential run, influencing market perceptions of his viability.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor in 2026
Kamala Harris dips to 3%3%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris officially ruled out a 2026 California gubernatorial run, clarifying her political plans and causing a decline in her market price as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Opinion piece crowns Gavin Newsom as the leading 2028 Democratic hopeful
Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%
The PCC Courier editorial framed Newsom as the Democratic frontrunner for 2028, citing his social‑media strategy and speculation that he will run. This positive narrative coincides with the jump from 10 % to 13 % on Dec 10 2025 and continued upward pressure to a peak of 23 % in September, lifting his market price to 17 % by the window’s end.
Gavin Newsom intensifies campaign for 2028 with social media and redistricting efforts
Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%9%
California Governor Gavin Newsom's active social media presence, public confrontations with Trump, and successful redistricting campaign boosted his profile as a leading Democratic contender for 2028, reflected in rising market prices.
Supreme Court hears campaign finance case involving JD Vance
JD Vance jumps to 32%13%
The Supreme Court heard arguments about Vance's campaign finance case, with justices discussing his presidential ambitions, boosting his visibility as a potential 2028 nominee.
Supreme Court hears case on campaign finance linked to JD Vance
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
The Supreme Court considered a case brought by JD Vance challenging campaign finance restrictions, spotlighting his 2028 ambitions and potentially influencing his fundraising and campaign strategy, which impacted his market price.
Supreme Court hears case highlighting JD Vance's 2028 ambitions
During a campaign finance case, the Supreme Court discussed Vice President JD Vance's potential 2028 presidential run, reflecting public and legal attention on his future political plans, which likely influenced market perceptions.
Supreme Court hears case involving JD Vance's campaign finance and 2028 ambitions
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
The Supreme Court discussed JD Vance's ambiguous presidential ambitions during a campaign finance case, highlighting his potential 2028 run and impacting market perceptions of his candidacy.
Supreme Court hears case mentioning JD Vance's 2028 ambitions
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
During oral arguments in a campaign finance case, JD Vance's potential 2028 presidential ambitions were discussed, increasing market speculation about his candidacy and causing price fluctuations.
Tucker Carlson announces purchase of home in Qatar, sparking backlash
Carlson's announcement of buying property in Qatar caused backlash from conservative circles, further damaging his standing among his base and contributing to his market decline.
Vance’s family appears at women’s hockey game during Olympics
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
The human‑interest story of Vance watching the U.S. women’s hockey team with influencer Jake Paul added a relatable, patriotic image, lifting his price from 30% to 32% before a later correction.
Halle Berry slams Gov. Newsom for vetoing menopause legislation
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%4%
Berry accused Newsom of vetoing a menopause‑health bill, prompting a media storm that pushed Newsom’s price from 22 % on 2025‑10‑04 to 18 % on 2025‑12‑05 (‑4 points).
Turning Point USA endorses Vice President JD Vance for 2028 presidency
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance and committed to supporting his campaign in key early primary states, boosting his market price from 19% to around 28%. This endorsement signaled strong grassroots conservative backing for Vance.
Vice President Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid conservative party discord
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
JD Vance strongly defended his wife against racist attacks and refused to set purity tests for conservatives at Turning Point USA's AmericaFest, addressing internal party conflicts and maintaining his leadership image, which helped stabilize his market position.
Gavin Newsom responds to Halle Berry's criticism over vetoing menopause bill
After Halle Berry publicly criticized Newsom for vetoing a menopause bill, Newsom clarified the situation and included funding in the next budget, which helped mitigate negative perceptions and stabilize his market price.
JD Vance announces fourth child, boosting family‑values image
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
Vance’s public announcement of expecting a fourth child reinforced his pro‑family platform, contributing to a modest price rise from 30% to 32% as family‑oriented voters responded positively.
JD Vance’s March for Life appearance boosts his profile
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vice President Vance’s high‑visibility speech at the annual March for Life highlighted his pro‑family agenda, leading traders to increase confidence in his presidential prospects, pushing his price from 28% to 30%.
Halle Berry criticizes Gavin Newsom for devaluing women, Newsom responds
Gavin Newsom dips to 20%2%
Public criticism and Newsom's response brought attention to his leadership style and policy priorities, affecting public perception.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained
JD Vance dips to 29%1%
A man armed with a hammer vandalized Vice President JD Vance’s Ohio residence, causing significant property damage. This incident raised security concerns around Vance and may have affected his public perception and market price.
JD Vance announces new Medicaid fraud deferral in California
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vance announced a $1.3 billion deferral in Medicaid funding to California over suspected fraud, highlighting his anti-fraud efforts and boosting his profile as a tough administrator.
Vice President Vance defends his wife amid racist attacks
JD Vance rises to 27%2%
JD Vance strongly defended his wife Usha Vance against racist attacks from right-wing figures, reinforcing his public image as a protective family man and solidifying support among moderate conservatives, which contributed to a price rebound.
Vice President JD Vance's Ohio home vandalized; suspect detained
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
Vandalism at JD Vance's home and subsequent legal actions brought media attention, potentially eliciting sympathy and support, stabilizing his market price amid political tensions.
Jon Ossoff raises $12 million for 2026 reelection campaign
Senator Jon Ossoff's strong fundraising haul for his 2026 reelection campaign demonstrated his political strength in Georgia, supporting his stable market price and potential future ambitions.
Suspect arrested for vandalizing JD Vance's Ohio home
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
A man was detained and charged for breaking windows and damaging property at JD Vance's Ohio residence, highlighting security concerns around Vance and possibly affecting his market support due to increased media attention and sympathy.
JD Vance defends his wife against racist attacks
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
Vice President JD Vance strongly defended his wife Usha Vance against racist attacks, reinforcing his public image and possibly stabilizing his market support.
Fact-check: Tucker Carlson’s audience has collapsed since leaving Fox
Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%
Factually’s analysis of Carlson’s post‑Fox viewership showed a sharp decline, coinciding with the market price falling from a 50 % spike in September 2025 to 3 % by early May 2026.
Gov. Newsom reveals $2.9 B budget deficit in final year
Gavin Newsom drops to 13%5%
A $2.9 billion budget shortfall was disclosed by Newsom’s office, fueling criticism about fiscal competence. The news helped push Newsom’s price down from 18 % to 13 % by early December 2025.
California Governor Gavin Newsom participates in global climate conference in Brazil
Governor Gavin Newsom's international engagement at the COP30 U.N. Climate Summit in Brazil increased his national and global profile, contributing to a rise in his market price as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
California Governor Gavin Newsom champions Proposition 50 for redistricting reform
Gavin Newsom jumps to 17%7%
Newsom's leadership on Proposition 50 and his active policy agenda raised his profile and market price as a potential 2028 candidate.
Vance’s home vandalized; suspect detained
JD Vance rises to 30%3%
The incident generated sympathy for Vance and heightened media attention, causing his price to rise from 27% to 30% as voters rallied around the vice president.
Jon Ossoff stands firm on protecting Affordable Care Act subsidies amid government shutdown
Ossoff's stance against ending the government shutdown without extending ACA subsidies reinforced his progressive credentials, impacting his market price by appealing to his base.
Kamala Harris returns to campaign trail supporting Tennessee Democrat
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
Harris's reengagement in national politics through campaign appearances signaled potential future ambitions, though her market price remained low.
Gov. Newsom declares May 2026 Mental Health Awareness Month
The Guardian reported Newsom’s proclamation of “Mental Health Awareness Month,” which kept his market price steady at 16 % through the year-end, reflecting consistent baseline support.
JD Vance says he will discuss 2028 presidential run with Trump after midterms
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance confirmed he would speak with President Trump after the midterm elections about possibly running for president in 2028, though he emphasized 2026 was his immediate focus. This fueled speculation about a potential 2028 run.
JD Vance plans to discuss 2028 presidential run with Trump after midterms
Vice President JD Vance stated he would talk with President Trump after the 2026 midterm elections about possibly running for president in 2028, signaling early positioning for the race while focusing on immediate priorities.
JD Vance discusses possible 2028 presidential campaign with Fox News
Vance spoke with Fox News' Sean Hannity about a potential 2028 run, fueling speculation but not confirming candidacy.
JD Vance discusses potential 2028 presidential run with Fox News
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance spoke directly with Fox News host Sean Hannity about considering a 2028 presidential run after the midterms, fueling speculation about his candidacy.
Josh Shapiro announces new state tax credit benefiting working Pennsylvanians
Josh Shapiro drops to 2%5%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro unveiled a new tax credit program providing $193 million in relief to nearly one million residents, but his market price declined from 7% to 2% amid political challenges and controversies.
Rubio privately tells confidants that Vance is the 2028 frontrunner
Marco Rubio rises to 7%2%
A Politico report noting Rubio’s private comments that JD Vance was the front‑runner raised visibility of his own candidacy, nudging his price from 5 % in August to 7 % by early September 2025.
Marco Rubio privately endorses JD Vance as 2028 Republican frontrunner
JD Vance rises to 29%1%
Marco Rubio told confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and expressed support for Vance, boosting Vance's perceived viability.
Gavin Newsom's Proposition 50 Gerrymandering Campaign Passes Comfortably
Gavin Newsom dips to 19%2%
The successful passage of Proposition 50 delivered California Governor Gavin Newsom a major national victory, boosting his credentials as a leader of the anti-Trump resistance.
California Voters Pass Proposition 50, Boosting Gavin Newsom's National Profile
Gavin Newsom dips to 20%3%
The passage of Proposition 50 delivered a major redistricting victory to Governor Gavin Newsom, strengthening his position as a top Democratic contender for 2028.
Gavin Newsom gains momentum with Proposition 50 redistricting campaign
Gavin Newsom rises to 22%4%
Newsom's successful campaign for Prop 50 enhanced his national profile and fundraising, boosting his 2028 presidential chances.
Newsom's redistricting ballot initiative seen as boost for 2028 presidential bid
Gavin Newsom rises to 18%4%
Gavin Newsom's successful push for a redistricting ballot initiative in California was viewed as a significant political win, enhancing his stature and prospects for a 2028 presidential run.
Jon Ossoff delivers viral anti-Trump speech, sparking 2028 front-runner predictions
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
Ossoff's scathing speech against Trump gained viral attention, increasing his visibility and market price from 3% to 4% in early 2026.
Gavin Newsom campaigns for Proposition 50, boosting national profile
Gavin Newsom jumps to 23%13%
California Governor Gavin Newsom campaigned for Proposition 50, a redistricting measure, which was expected to pass comfortably, enhancing his national stature and increasing his market price from 10% to 23%.
Marco Rubio publicly backs JD Vance for 2028 presidential run
Marco Rubio jumps to 10%5%
Marco Rubio's public endorsement of JD Vance for president strengthened Vance's position and contributed to Rubio's own modest price increase as a potential vice-presidential pick or influential supporter.
Gavin Newsom leads successful Proposition 50 campaign boosting national profile
Gavin Newsom jumps to 23%5%
Newsom's leadership in passing Proposition 50 in California in November 2025 enhanced his national stature and fundraising capabilities, positively impacting his market price as a 2028 presidential contender.
Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez announces run for president in 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 8%1%
AOC’s entry into the presidential race attracted progressive voters but also polarized the electorate, leading to a price dip from 9% to 8% as some investors reassessed her electability.
Tucker Carlson hosts controversial interview with Nick Fuentes
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
Tucker Carlson's interview with far-right activist Nick Fuentes drew significant backlash and contributed to his rapid decline in market price due to controversy and distancing by conservative circles.
Tucker Carlson interviews far-right activist Nick Fuentes, sparking controversy
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
Carlson's interview with Nick Fuentes, known for antisemitic rhetoric, led to widespread backlash and a sharp market price drop from 50% to 1% by late September 2025, reflecting loss of support.
Gov. Gavin Newsom says he will consider White House run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom jumps to 23%10%
Governor Gavin Newsom told CBS News he would consider a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms. The interview pushed his market price up from 13 % on 2025‑10‑26 to a peak of 23 % on 2025‑10‑20, marking the biggest swing for Newsom in the window.
Newsom says he will consider a White House run after the 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%
Newsom told CBS News Sunday Morning he would decide after the 2026 midterms whether to run for president in 2028, sparking speculation about a national bid and pushing his market price from 10 % in early July to 13 % by early August.
Gavin Newsom confirms he is considering 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom rises to 14%4%
California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly stated he would consider a presidential campaign after the 2026 midterm elections, boosting his market price from around 10% to 14%.
Gavin Newsom signals consideration of 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%9%
Newsom publicly acknowledged he would seriously consider a presidential run after the 2026 elections, causing his market price to rise from 10% to 19% over the following months.
Gavin Newsom confirms interest in 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%
California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly expressed interest in running for president in 2028, increasing his visibility and market support as a Democratic contender.
Gavin Newsom confirms consideration of 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%5%
Newsom's public confirmation of considering a presidential bid increased his visibility and market price as a serious contender for the Democratic nomination.
Gavin Newsom says he will consider 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom rises to 14%4%
California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly stated he would consider running for president after the 2026 midterm elections, increasing speculation and market interest in his candidacy.
Tucker Carlson's market price collapses after Fox News departure
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
Following Tucker Carlson's exit from Fox News, his market price plummeted from 50% to near 1%, reflecting a sharp decline in influence and public support for a 2028 presidential bid.
Gavin Newsom signals openness to 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%9%
California Governor Gavin Newsom stated in October 2025 that he would seriously consider a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterm elections, contributing to increased market interest and price gains for his candidacy.
California Governor Gavin Newsom mulls 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom jumps to 17%7%
Newsom publicly said he would consider a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms, sparking a surge in his market price from 10 % on July 11 to a peak of 23 % in early September, before settling at 17 % by mid‑April 2026.
Poll shows Gavin Newsom ahead of Kamala Harris in 2028 race
Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%
A SXU Student Media piece cited a poll showing Newsom leading nationally over Harris, reinforcing his upward trend from 10 % (July 2025) to 13 % (early October) and eventually to 17 % by April 2026.
Kamala Harris says ‘I’m not done’ – hints at another presidential bid
Harris hinted at a possible future presidential run, keeping her price stable at 6 % (no change, but reinforced market perception).
Kamala Harris signals possible 2028 presidential run in BBC interview
Kamala Harris dips to 3%3%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris gave her strongest indication yet of considering a 2028 presidential bid during a BBC interview, though she had recently declined to run for California governor, causing a slight price decline from 6% to 3%.
Kamala Harris Suggests She Is Considering Another Presidential Run
Kamala Harris rises to 3%1%
In a BBC interview, former Vice President Kamala Harris gave her strongest indication yet that she remains open to a third run for the White House in 2028.
Kamala Harris hints at another presidential run in BBC interview
Kamala Harris dips to 4%2%
BBC and New York Times interviews with Harris hinted at a possible 2028 run, prompting a slide from 6 % to 4 % by early November and continuing downward to 3 % by April 2026.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential run
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, announced official support for Vance, boosting his campaign profile and giving him early conservative backing ahead of the 2028 election.
JD Vance criticizes Israel's parliament vote on West Bank annexation
JD Vance publicly criticized Israel's parliament vote on West Bank annexation, highlighting his foreign policy stance and increasing his visibility in national politics, which helped maintain his market position.
Poll shows JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. as early GOP favorites for 2028 nomination
A poll indicated Vice President JD Vance as the strongest contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, alongside Donald Trump Jr., boosting market confidence in Vance's candidacy.
JD Vance and officials express optimism on Israel-Hamas ceasefire
JD Vance publicly expressed optimism about a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, enhancing his profile on foreign policy and possibly contributing to a stable or increased market price.
JD Vance expresses optimism on Israel-Hamas ceasefire
JD Vance rises to 28%1%
Vice President JD Vance publicly expressed optimism about a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, highlighting his involvement in foreign policy and boosting his profile among conservative voters.
Poll shows JD Vance and Gavin Newsom statistically tied in New Jersey for 2028 matchup
Gavin Newsom jumps to 16%6%
A poll in New Jersey showed a statistically tied race between Gavin Newsom and JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup, highlighting the competitiveness of the race in key states and affecting market prices.
Marco Rubio’s presidential prospects gain momentum
Marco Rubio jumps to 10%8%
Marco Rubio’s market price increased from 2% to 10% in early 2026, likely due to renewed political activity and speculation about his candidacy.
Poll shows Gavin Newsom narrowly leading JD Vance in New Jersey hypothetical matchup
Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%
A poll in October 2025 showed Newsom leading Vance by one point in New Jersey, a traditionally Democratic state, signaling a competitive race and boosting Newsom's market price.
JD Vance’s 2028 presidential chances plunge in new poll
JD Vance drops to 24%8%
Newsweek reported Vance’s poll share peaked at 32.8 % on Oct 16 2025 and then slipped sharply, matching the market’s fall from 32 % on Oct 12 to 24 % by early November. The decline explains the downward swing in JD Vance’s price.
Medicaid $1.3 B payment to California deferred over suspected fraud
Gavin Newsom drops to 17%5%
The administration announced a $1.3 billion deferral of Medicaid funds to California amid fraud allegations. Newsom’s office publicly disputed the claim, and the controversy pulled Newsom’s market price down from 22 % to 17 % over a two‑week span.
Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoes menopause bill, draws criticism
Gavin Newsom drops to 14%5%
Newsom vetoed the menopause‑related AB 432 bill, provoking backlash from women's‑health advocates and the media. The veto coincided with a dip from 19 % to 14 % in Newsom’s market price by mid‑October 2025.
Vance condemns Minneapolis unrest, blames local officials
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
His tough stance on immigration and law‑and‑order issues resonated with right‑leaning voters, nudging his price upward from 30% to 27% as the narrative shifted to security concerns.
Man Pleads Guilty in Arson Attack on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's Residence
The sentencing of the individual who attacked the official residence of Governor Josh Shapiro brought national attention to the governor, who spoke out strongly against political violence.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoes menopause bill, drawing criticism
Gavin Newsom drops to 14%5%
Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopausal care, leading to public criticism from figures like Halle Berry and affecting his political standing and market price.
Sen. Jon Ossoff raises $12 million for 2026 Georgia Senate race
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
Ossoff announced a $12 million fundraising haul for his 2026 Senate race, improving his perceived electability and nudging his market price upward in October.
Jon Ossoff raises over $12 million for 2026 reelection campaign
Ossoff's substantial fundraising haul demonstrated strong financial backing, boosting his market price as a viable 2028 candidate.
Jon Ossoff raises $12 million for 2026 Senate campaign
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%2%
Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff raised $12 million for his 2026 Senate race, a fundraising surge that moved his market price from 2 % on 2025‑09‑27 to 4 % on 2026‑04‑21.
Senator Jon Ossoff raises $12 million for 2026 reelection campaign
Jon Ossoff reported raising over $12 million in the third quarter of 2025, demonstrating strong fundraising ability and solidifying his position as a leading Democratic candidate in Georgia, which positively influenced his market price.
Poll shows JD Vance leading GOP primary with 38% support
An October 2025 poll showed JD Vance leading the Republican primary with 38% support, reinforcing his frontrunner status and supporting his market price.
California Gov. Newsom cuts ties with AIPAC
Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%9%
Newsom publicly announced he would no longer accept donations from AIPAC, sparking speculation that he might run independently for president. His market price rose steadily from 10 % to 19 % by September 2025.
Vance announces $1.3 billion Medicaid deferral for California over fraud concerns
JD Vance rises to 30%3%
The anti‑fraud announcement generated criticism from California Democrats and boosted Vance’s visibility, contributing to a modest price rise from 27% to 30% in November.
Supreme Court hears Republican challenge to campaign‑finance limits, Vance joins case
Marco Rubio rises to 8%1%
The Court’s hearing on a GOP effort to lift party‑spending caps featured Vice President Vance as a plaintiff, raising his national profile and indirectly benefiting fellow Republican Marco Rubio, whose price rose from 7% to 8% shortly after.
JD Vance dominates New Hampshire GOP primary polls
JD Vance rises to 32%4%
By October 2025, JD Vance led New Hampshire GOP primary polls with 51% support, far ahead of rivals, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing his market price to peak at 32%.
Poll shows JD Vance leading GOP rivals in New Hampshire primary
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
A University of New Hampshire Granite State poll showed Vance with 51% support among likely Republican primary voters, far ahead of rivals, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting market confidence.
Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris reveal complications in their political relationship
Gavin Newsom rises to 18%2%
Reports of tension and rivalry between Newsom and Harris influenced perceptions of their respective presidential prospects.
Kamala Harris extends book tour promoting her presidential campaign memoir
Harris's extended book tour increased her visibility and engagement with voters, supporting her market position as a potential 2028 candidate.
Kamala Harris publishes memoir '107 Days' and hints at 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%
Harris's memoir release and public statements about a possible 2028 bid briefly raised her profile and market interest.
Tucker Carlson’s market share collapses after controversial remarks
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
Following a widely reported controversy, Tucker Carlson’s price plummeted from 50% to 1%, reflecting a sharp loss of confidence among bettors.
Tucker Carlson makes surprise White House appearance
Tucker Carlson plunges to 2%48%
Carlson made an unexpected appearance at the White House, drawing massive media attention and causing his market price to plunge from 50 % on 2025‑09‑18 to 1 % by 2025‑09‑21.
StopAntisemitism crowns Tucker Carlson ‘Antisemite of the Year’
Tucker Carlson plunges to 0%50%
StopAntisemitism named Carlson “Antisemite of the Year,” prompting a sharp public backlash and a plunge in his market price from 50 % on 2025‑09‑18 to 0 % on 2025‑09‑21 (‑50 points).
JD Vance leads US delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance rises to 28%1%
JD Vance's role leading the US delegation to the Winter Olympics increased his national visibility and association with patriotic events, positively impacting his market price.
Poll shows Tucker Carlson as early front‑runner before backlash over Ukraine comments
Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%
Tucker Carlson was listed as a top‑draw candidate in a speculative “Who will run in 2028?” poll, peaking at 50 % on Sep 18 2025. Within three days the poll collapsed after his controversial statements about the war in Ukraine, dropping his price to 1 % on Sep 21 2025.
Tucker Carlson’s WEF appearance fuels backlash, market price collapses
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
A Daily Caller article reported Carlson’s market‑dominant appearance at the World Economic Forum, but the next day his price plunged from 50 % to 1 % as news outlets highlighted his controversial remarks, producing the market’s biggest swing.
Tucker Carlson’s 2028 speculation fizzles, market price crashes from 50 % to 1 %
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
A viral post on Sep 18 2025 showed Tucker Carlson’s market price at 50 %, but by Sep 21 the price collapsed to 0 % after he rejected speculation about a 2028 run, accounting for a –49‑point swing.
Tucker Carlson claims CIA reads his messages, hints at foreign‑agent case
Tucker Carlson surges to 50%48%
A snapshot of Carlson’s market price shows a sudden spike to 50 % on Sep 18, 2025, following a Fox News interview where he claimed the CIA read his messages, prompting a brief surge in speculation about his political ambitions.
Tucker Carlson’s market price crashes after opening‑ceremony backlash at Milan‑Cortina Olympics
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
During the opening ceremony, cameras showed Carlson receiving jeers, leading to a rapid loss of support for him as a presidential contender. His price fell from 50% to 1% within days.
Tucker Carlson’s presidential chances collapse after sharp price drop
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
Tucker Carlson’s market price plummeted from 50% to 1% in late 2025, indicating a major loss of support or withdrawal from the race.
Tucker Carlson endorses JD Vance for president
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
Tucker Carlson's strong endorsement of JD Vance at the AmericaFest convention solidified his position as the preferred successor in the Trump coalition, causing a significant spike in his market price.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vance’s high‑profile role at the Milan‑Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics raised his visibility internationally, coinciding with a sharp drop in Tucker Carlson’s price as attention shifted to Vance.
Tucker Carlson answers whether he will run for president in 2028
Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%
Carlson’s interview in which he hinted he might run for president caused his market price to plunge from a 50 % spike on September 18 to just 1 % by September 29, reflecting massive trader re‑assessment of his candidacy prospects.
StopAntisemitism names Tucker Carlson “Antisemite of the Year”
Tucker Carlson plunges to 2%48%
The StopAntisemitism group named Tucker Carlson “Antisemite of the Year” after his anti‑Israel remarks, prompting a rapid market sell‑off of the Carlson option as his credibility as a presidential contender collapsed.
Tucker Carlson's market share collapses after Fox News departure and controversies
Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%
Carlson's abrupt fall from Fox News and subsequent controversies, including antisemitism accusations, led to a dramatic drop in his market price from 50% to 3%.
Tucker Carlson makes incendiary election‑integrity claims; Fox pulls his show
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
A viral clip of Carlson making controversial remarks about election integrity drove his market price to an extreme 50 % on Sep 18, then a rapid collapse to 1 % after network censors removed him on Sep 21, reflecting a 49‑point swing.
Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania gubernatorial re‑election
Josh Shapiro rises to 8%1%
Shapiro’s decisive victory in Pennsylvania reinforced his political standing, modestly increasing his market price from 7% to 8% as he emerged as a potential national contender.
JD Vance hints at 2028 presidential run but focuses on current role
In an interview, Vance acknowledged the possibility of a 2028 run but emphasized his focus on his current vice-presidential duties. This balanced message maintained market interest without overcommitting, stabilizing his price.
Vance's poll favorability rises to 49% in CBS News/YouGov poll
A CBS News/YouGov poll showed Vance's favorability increased to 49%, boosting his market position.
JD Vance hints at 2028 presidential run during 'My View with Lara Trump' appearance
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance acknowledged the possibility of a 2028 presidential run but emphasized his focus on current duties, sparking speculation about his future ambitions and influencing market perception.
AOC Emerges as Leading 2028 Democratic Presidential Contender in Early Polling
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%1%
Early primary polling and strong fundraising numbers positioned Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as a formidable 2028 candidate, leading to a temporary surge in her market profile.
Gov. Newsom unveils $20 bn affordable‑housing plan
Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%6%
Newsom announced a $20 billion housing‑affordability package, winning bipartisan support and energising his base. The market’s Newsom price rose from 13 % on 2025‑08‑18 to 19 % on 2025‑09‑03 (+6 points).
Second Lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
The Vance couple announced they are expecting a fourth child. The personal‑family news generated a modest uptick in Vance’s price, moving it from 30 % back up to 31 % as voters responded positively to the pro‑family image.
Gavin Newsom gains media attention as potential Democratic contender
Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%9%
Gavin Newsom's rising profile as a potential Democratic candidate for 2028 led to increased market interest and price gains during this period.
Gavin Newsom gains attention with 'dark woke' social media tactics and centrist policies
Gavin Newsom jumps to 16%6%
Newsom's use of social media and centrist policy positioning increased his prominence and polling numbers, contributing to a rise in his market price as a 2028 presidential contender.
Marco Rubio attends Winter Olympics opening ceremony with Vance
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
Rubio’s visibility alongside Vance at the high‑profile opening ceremony gave him a lift, moving his price from 7% to 10% as he was seen as a potential future presidential contender.
AOC appears with Bernie Sanders to discuss progressive tax plan
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 8%1%
A joint appearance with Bernie Sanders on a national talk show highlighted AOC’s progressive platform, but the lack of a clear presidential declaration kept her market price stable, slipping from 9 % to 8 % by early September 2025.
Sen. Kamala Harris defends immigration rollout in weekend TV interview
A series of televised interviews where Harris defended the administration’s immigration policy received mixed reviews, keeping her price flat at 6 % throughout the window.
JD Vance appears at March for Life rally, touts anti‑abortion record
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
His prominent anti‑abortion stance resonated with the conservative base, giving a modest boost to his price from 30% to 32% before a later dip.
Vance leads U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vance’s appearance at the opening ceremony raised his national profile and temporarily boosted his market price, contributing to a rise from 28% to 30% later in November.
Gavin Newsom warns of Trump’s 2028 third‑term plot, pushes California redistricting vote
Gavin Newsom jumps to 23%10%
Newsom warned that Donald Trump was preparing a “Trump 2028” hat and called for a California special election on redistricting. The controversy drove his price up from 12 % to a high of 23 % on Sep 7 2025, before settling at 17 % by Apr 13 2026.
Blueprint poll reveals JD Vance's controversial views hurting his favorability
JD Vance dips to 25%3%
Polls in August 2025 showed increasing voter awareness of Vance's extreme positions, leading to more negative associations and impacting his market price negatively.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio says he would back JD Vance if he runs
Marco Rubio rises to 9%4%
In a syndicated interview, Vice President Vance noted that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has already pledged to back Vance if he runs for president. The mention of Rubio’s support gave Rubio’s own market price a boost from 5 % to 9 % as pundits saw him as a key ally.
Mike Collins enters 2026 Georgia Senate race challenging Jon Ossoff
Republican Mike Collins announced his candidacy for the 2026 Georgia Senate race, setting up a competitive contest against incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff. This development influenced Ossoff's market price as his re-election bid gained attention.
Gov. Shapiro secures $20 bn Amazon AI‑data‑center investment
Josh Shapiro drops to 2%5%
Shapiro announced a $20 bn AI‑data‑center investment deal with Amazon, but critics warned of rising electricity costs, nudging his market price down from 7 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 2 % on 2025‑08‑07 (‑5 points).
Vice President JD Vance announces $1.3 billion California Medicaid deferral
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vice President JD Vance announced a $1.3 billion deferral of Medicaid funds to California as part of the administration’s anti‑fraud task force. The high‑profile announcement boosted Vance’s national visibility and his standing among conservatives, lifting his market price from 19 % to 28 % within a week.
Poll shows former Vice President Kamala Harris gaining modest support in early 2028 primary field
Kamala Harris rises to 7%1%
A brief mention of former Vice President Kamala Harris in a poll‑related article added a few percentage points to her market price, moving it from 6 % to 7 % by mid‑May 2026.
Poll shows JD Vance and Gavin Newsom tied nationally in early 2028 race
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
An Emerson College poll released in early August 2025 showed Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom tied at 44% support in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, indicating a competitive early race and boosting market confidence in both candidates.
Jon Ossoff secures key Senate committee chairmanship
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
Ossoff’s elevation to a prominent committee role raised his national profile, nudging his market price upward from 3% to 4% as his legislative influence grew.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vance’s role as head of the U.S. Olympic delegation raised his profile internationally and domestically, pushing his price from 28% to 30% as voters saw him as a statesman.
Federal judge orders suspect in JD Vance home vandalism to remain jailed
JD Vance dips to 27%1%
A judge kept the alleged vandal of Vance’s Ohio home in custody, underscoring the seriousness of the attack. The incident hurt Vance’s standing, contributing to a price drop from 28% to 27% by early August.
Poll shows JD Vance and Gavin Newsom neck and neck nationally
Gavin Newsom jumps to 17%7%
An Emerson College poll in August 2025 revealed a tight race between JD Vance and Gavin Newsom, both polling at 44%, which corresponded with market prices showing Newsom's rise from 10% to 17% and Vance maintaining a strong position around 28%.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro announces modest fundraising rollout
Josh Shapiro drops to 2%5%
Shapiro’s low‑profile fundraising announcement in early August 2025 kept his market price flat near 7 % before it fell sharply to 2 % by Apr 13 2026 as attention shifted to higher‑profile candidates.
Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio attend Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio jumps to 14%7%
Rubio’s appointment as Secretary of State created a surge of optimism among Republican voters, lifting his market price from 7 % to 9 % in early Jan 2026 and eventually to 14 % by mid‑May.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor in 2026
Kamala Harris dips to 3%3%
Harris's decision to forgo a gubernatorial run signaled a pause in her political ambitions, leading to a decline in market price from 6% to 3% over the analysis period.
Kamala Harris Announces She Will Not Run for California Governor in 2026
Kamala Harris dips to 3%3%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris officially ruled out a run for California governor, keeping her focus on national politics and leaving the door open for a potential 2028 presidential bid.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child on social media
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance and his wife Usha revealed they are expecting a son, highlighting his family values and pro‑birth agenda, which lifted his market price from 19% to 28% as voters saw him as a relatable family man.
Vice President JD Vance appears in White House video confirming his role
JD Vance rises to 21%2%
Vance confirmed his vice‑presidential role in a White House video, reinforcing his national profile and lifting his market price from 19 % to 21 % the same week.
Vice President JD Vance and wife expect fourth child
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vice President JD Vance announced on social media that he and his wife were expecting a fourth child, a story that humanized the candidate and lifted his market price from 19 % to 28 % over the following weeks.
Gov. Gavin Newsom says he will not run for California governor in 2026
Gavin Newsom rises to 14%4%
Newsom publicly ruled out a run for California governor in 2026, focusing instead on a possible 2028 presidential bid. The announcement halted his momentum and the market price slid from 10 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 14 % on 2025‑08‑03.
Former VP Kamala Harris will not run for California governor in 2026
Kamala Harris dips to 5%1%
Harris announced she would not run for California governor, removing her from the 2026 statewide race and curbing speculation about a 2028 presidential bid. The market price slid from 6 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 5 % on 2026‑06‑04.
Kamala Harris will not enter the California governor race in 2026
Kamala Harris dips to 3%3%
Former Vice President Harris declared she will not run for California governor in 2026, removing her from the pool of potential 2028 contenders and causing her market price to drop from 6 % to 3 % over the next month.
Kamala Harris says she will not run for California governor in 2026
Kamala Harris dips to 3%3%
Former Vice President Harris announced she would not run for California governor, leaving the door open for a possible 2028 presidential run. The market price for Harris fell from 6 % to 3 % over the next month as speculation about her candidacy waned.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris says she will not run for California governor in 2026
Kamala Harris dips to 5%1%
Multiple outlets (Reuters, AP, CNN) reported that former Vice President Harris would not run for California governor, dampening expectations of a 2028 presidential bid and causing her market price to fall to its low‑2025 level.
Kamala Harris will not run for California governor in 2026
The New York Times reported Harris’s decision not to run for California governor, keeping her out of the 2028 presidential field and stabilizing her market price at 6 % throughout the period.
Vice President JD Vance celebrates passage of major bill in Ohio
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
JD Vance held a public event in Canton, Ohio, to celebrate the passage of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' highlighting his active role in promoting legislation benefiting American families and businesses, which likely boosted his political profile and market price.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child is on the way
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance’s social‑media post about expecting a son generated a surge of positive sentiment for his candidacy, lifting his market price from 19% to 28% within weeks as voters viewed his family image favorably.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child on social media
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance and his wife Usha posted that they are expecting a son, highlighting his family image and pro‑family stance, which lifted his market price from 19% to 28%.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidency
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Turning Point USA announced it will back Vice President JD Vance in early primary states, signaling organized grassroots support and boosting his market price from 19% to 28% shortly after.
Poll shows JD Vance leading GOP primary and early general election matchups
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
An Emerson College poll conducted in July 2025 showed JD Vance with an early lead over leading Democratic candidates and strong support among Republicans, boosting his market price significantly.
Emerson College Poll shows Gavin Newsom rising in 2028 presidential hypothetical matchups
Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%
Polls in mid-2025 showed Gavin Newsom gaining support in hypothetical 2028 matchups, increasing his market price as a leading Democratic contender.
Emerson College Poll shows JD Vance leading Republican primary with 42% support
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
A July 2025 Emerson poll indicated JD Vance as the dominant Republican primary candidate, reinforcing his frontrunner status and supporting his market price strength.
JD Vance announces new book 'Communion' exploring his Catholic conversion
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
The announcement of Vance's faith-focused memoir fueled speculation about a potential 2028 presidential run, contributing to increased market interest in his candidacy.
JD Vance's 2028 presidential ambitions peak at 50% in campaign finance Supreme Court case
JD Vance surges to 50%31%
Vance's 2028 presidential ambitions were a top topic during Supreme Court oral arguments, with justices noting he is a young vice president who 'might' run. This early peak in speculation set the stage for subsequent price movements.
Tucker Carlson's popularity collapses after Fox News contract termination
Tucker Carlson plunges to 2%48%
Carlson's market price dropped sharply from 50% to near 1-3% following his contract termination and loss of Fox News platform, severely damaging his presidential chances.
JD Vance gains early support as Vice President and potential 2028 candidate
JD Vance jumps to 32%13%
JD Vance became the 50th Vice President in early 2025, generating early speculation about a 2028 presidential run, which boosted his market price from 19% to a peak of 32% by December 2025.
Gavin Newsom reaches peak market support amid presidential speculation
Gavin Newsom surges to 50%40%
Governor Gavin Newsom's market price peaked at 50% in mid-July 2025, reflecting strong speculation about a 2028 presidential run and his rising national profile, before settling to a lower level.
Gavin Newsom’s polling surges amid increased national profile
Gavin Newsom jumps to 22%12%
Gavin Newsom’s price rose from 10% to 22% in mid-2025, reflecting growing speculation about his presidential ambitions and increased media coverage.
Turning Point USA pledges early‑state support for JD Vance after Erika Kirk endorsement
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Turning Point USA announced that it will back Vice President JD Vance in key early‑state caucuses after Erika Kirk’s public endorsement. The endorsement and early‑state organizing pushed Vance’s market price up from 19 % to 28 % within two weeks.
JD Vance and wife Usha Vance announce fourth child expected in late July
JD Vance jumps to 32%13%
The announcement of a fourth child boosted Vance's market price to a high of 32% in December 2025, aligning with his pro-family policy messaging and campaign focus on encouraging birth rates.
JD Vance named Vice President, boosting speculation about 2028 run
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
JD Vance was sworn in as the 50th Vice President of the United States, elevating his national profile and sparking market interest in his potential 2028 presidential bid, reflected in early price increases.
Gavin Newsom launches aggressive anti-Trump social media campaign
Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%9%
Newsom adopted Trump-style marketing with AI-generated memes and merchandise, increasing his national profile and fundraising, which contributed to a price rise from 10% to 19% by late August 2025.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential bid
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 presidential election, signaling strong conservative grassroots support in key early primary states. This endorsement boosted Vance's market price from 19% to around 28%.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential run
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president in 2028, signaling strong conservative grassroots support and boosting his market price significantly in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
JD Vance suggests Tucker Carlson interview Ghislaine Maxwell to clear President Trump's name
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vice President JD Vance proposed a media strategy involving Tucker Carlson to address Epstein-related controversies, briefly boosting his profile and market price.
Kamala Harris rules out 2026 California governor bid
Kamala Harris dips to 2%4%
A wave of reports confirmed that former Vice President Kamala Harris would not run for California governor in 2026, ending speculation about her next political move. The announcement corresponded with a drop in her market price from 6 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 2 % by early September.
Turning Point USA pledges early support for JD Vance in key primary states
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Turning Point USA announced it will mobilize staff and volunteers in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada to back Vice President JD Vance for president, following Erika Kirk’s endorsement. The endorsement signaled organized grassroots momentum, pushing Vance’s price from 19% to 28% by early August.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child on social media
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance and his wife Usha posted that they are expecting a son, highlighting his family‑oriented image and reinforcing his pro‑birth‑rate platform, which lifted his market price from 19% to 28%.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro loses re‑election narrowly
Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%
Shapiro’s re‑election bid in Pennsylvania ended with a narrow loss, prompting a modest decline in his prediction‑market price from 7 % to 3 % by early August 2025.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy of fourth child
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
The announcement that Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha are expecting their fourth child in late July 2025 positively influenced Vance's market price, reflecting increased public interest and perceived stability in his personal life.
AOC files Q2 disclosure showing $5.7 M raised, 3rd‑most of any lawmaker
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%
A FEC filing showed Ocasio‑Cortez raised $5.7 million in Q2 2025, the third‑largest haul among all politicians, raising her profile and pushing her market price from 9 % to a brief high of 14 % on 2025‑07‑18 before settling at 5 % by April 2026.
JD Vance and wife announce expecting fourth child
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha announced they are expecting their fourth child, reinforcing Vance's pro-family image and potentially boosting his appeal among conservative voters.
JD Vance hints at 2028 presidential ambitions with cryptic social media post
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
JD Vance posted a cryptic message on Bluesky hinting at his political future, sparking speculation about a 2028 presidential run. This fueled market interest and a price increase for Vance as a potential Republican nominee.
Vice President JD Vance and wife announce expecting fourth child
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
JD Vance and his wife Usha announced they are expecting their fourth child, reinforcing Vance's pro-family image and potentially boosting his appeal among conservative voters, which likely contributed to his price increase in mid-2025.
Jon Ossoff gains firmer footing in 2026 Senate race
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
Senator Jon Ossoff strengthened his position for the 2026 Georgia Senate race, supported by favorable polling and fundraising, slightly increasing his market price from 3% to 4%.
Senator Jon Ossoff speaks at Rally For Our Republic in Savannah
Jon Ossoff's public engagement at a major rally signaled his active campaign presence, contributing to increased market confidence in his 2028 prospects.
Governor Newsom signs sweeping organized‑retail‑theft package
Gavin Newsom jumps to 21%11%
Newsom signed a major package addressing organized retail theft and released a state‑wide crime‑prevention plan, increasing his national profile and raising his market price in July.
Emerson College poll shows JD Vance and Gavin Newsom tied at 44%
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
An Emerson College national poll found Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom tied at 44% support in a hypothetical 2028 presidential race, indicating a competitive early contest and influencing market prices for both candidates.
Tucker Carlson headlines Turning Point USA 2025 Student Action Summit
Tucker Carlson's prominent appearance at a major conservative summit boosted his profile, initially supporting his high market price around 50%.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks with press in Kuala Lumpur
Rubio's international diplomatic activity and visibility as Secretary of State enhanced his profile, positively impacting his market price.
Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha Vance announce fourth child
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
The announcement of Vance's fourth child generated positive media coverage and aligned with his pro-family messaging, contributing to a slight price increase from 19% to 28% in early August.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidency and plans early state support
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president and announced plans to support him in key early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, boosting his market price from 19% to 28%. This endorsement signaled strong conservative grassroots backing for Vance.
JD Vance announces new memoir about his conversion to Catholicism
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
JD Vance announced a memoir titled 'Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith,' highlighting his religious conversion and personal journey. This announcement increased speculation about his 2028 presidential run and positively influenced his market price.
Early polls show JD Vance leading GOP field and Gavin Newsom rising
Initial polling in mid-2025 showed JD Vance as the GOP frontrunner with 19% market price, while Gavin Newsom began gaining support among Democrats, reflected in their respective market prices rising from 10% to 17%. This early momentum set the stage for their competitive positioning.
Marco Rubio confirmed as U.S. Secretary of State under President Trump
Rubio's confirmation as Secretary of State elevated his national profile and political influence, contributing to fluctuations in his market price as a 2028 presidential contender.
Tucker Carlson speaks at Turning Point USA Student Action Summit
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
Tucker Carlson appeared at the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit, after which his market price plunged from 50 % on 2025‑09‑18 to a low of 1 % on 2025‑09‑21, reflecting the market’s reaction to his reduced prominence and internal controversies.
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