Democratic Party candidate Chong Won-oh commands an 86.5% implied probability on Polymarket to win the June 3 Seoul mayoral election, reflecting consistent polling leads of over 10 points against incumbent People Power Party Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 13.5%, driven by trader consensus on Chong's momentum from his successful Seongdong District tenure and unified party backing. Recent developments include Chong's April 29 housing pledges for accelerated redevelopment and affordable "substantial housing" in areas like Jangwi-dong, contrasting Oh's health-focused platform unveiled April 28, amid a race tightening over cooling property prices and urban policy critiques. Low presidential approval ratings burden the ruling party incumbent, though swing district turnout and final debates could shift dynamics before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocratic rival Jung Won‑oh launches a high‑profile campaign attack on Oh Se‑hoon, pushing his market
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 8%5%
Democratic rival Jung Won‑oh launches a high‑profile campaign attack on Oh Se‑hoon, pushing his market
People Power Party accelerated by‑election nominations;
Han Dong‑hoon attended an alumni event in Busan as an independent candidate, confirming his focus on Busan and ending any remaining speculation about a Seoul run
People Power Party accelerates by-election nominations, with Han Dong-hoon running independently in Busan Buk-A, confirming his non-candidacy for Seoul mayor.
This news finalizes his political path away from Seoul mayoral race, maintaining the zero.
Oh Se-hoon officially registers as candidate and launches campaign, forming a fact-finding committee on opponent Chong Won-o's controversies
Oh Se-hoon rises to 13%3%
(Registration and active campaigning cause a minor
Official candidate registration and campaign kickoff; Oh Se-hoon intensifies scrutiny of Chong’s past, but Chong’s lead remains robust
Chong Won-oh dips to 88%1%
(Campaign launch and opposition scrutiny cause slight
Kang Hoon-sik's resignation from the legislative seat led to Jeon Eun-su's candidacy in Asan-eul, confirming Kang's withdrawal from electoral contests and focus on other roles
Kang Hoon-sik's resignation from the legislative seat led to Jeon Eun-su's candidacy in Asan-eul, confirming Kang's withdrawal from electoral contests and focus on other roles
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission as a prospective candidate and announces a fact‑finding committee on rival Chong’s alleged corruption, causing a modest
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission as a prospective candidate and announces a fact‑finding committee on rival Chong’s alleged corruption, causing a modest
The Democratic Party nominates Kim Yong-nam, known as a "Cho Kuk sniper," to run against Cho Kuk in Pyeongtaek-eul for the upcoming elections, signaling strong opposition and
The Democratic Party nominates Kim Yong-nam, known as a "Cho Kuk sniper," to run against Cho Kuk in Pyeongtaek-eul for the upcoming elections, signaling strong opposition and reducing market confidence in Cho Kuk's electoral prospects
Oh Se‑hoon completes formal registration as a candidate, formally kicking off the campaign and prompting a final
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 15%2%
Oh Se‑hoon completes formal registration as a candidate, formally kicking off the campaign and prompting a final
First post-nomination public polls show Chong Won-oh leading Oh Se-hoon by over 10 points, confirming market expectations
Chong Won-oh jumps to 89%10%
First post-nomination public polls show Chong Won-oh leading Oh Se-hoon by over 10 points, confirming market expectations
Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o appear together at a public event, softening the heated campaign tone and giving a brief lift to Oh’s odds
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 12%2%
Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o appear together at a public event, softening the heated campaign tone and giving a brief lift to Oh’s odds
Oh Se‑hoon secures the PPP nomination after a contentious primary, briefly lifting his odds as the party unites behind him
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%
Oh Se‑hoon secures the PPP nomination after a contentious primary, briefly lifting his odds as the party unites behind him
Oh Se-hoon appoints former primary rivals Park Soo-min and Yoon Hee-sook as co-campaign chiefs, signaling party unity and campaign consolidation
Oh Se-hoon appoints former primary rivals Park Soo-min and Yoon Hee-sook as co-campaign chiefs, signaling party unity and campaign consolidation
Oh Se‑hoon unveils an accelerated housing‑construction plan (310,000 homes by 2031), counter‑attacking the ruling party’s loan restrictions and attracting positive media coverage,
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%
Oh Se‑hoon unveils an accelerated housing‑construction plan (310,000 homes by 2031), counter‑attacking the ruling party’s loan restrictions and attracting positive media coverage, which steadies his
Hong Joon-pyo, a different politician, publicly supports another candidate and distances himself from his party, highlighting intra-party shifts but no impact on Hong Ihk-pyo’s standing
Though related to a different Hong, this event underscores the shifting political landscape within conservative circles, with no recovery in Hong Ihk-pyo’s market
Opposition People Power Party nominates incumbent Oh Se-hoon, intensifying the race; Oh launches fact-finding committee on Chong’s controversies, but Chong maintains lead
Chong Won-oh rises to 79%1%
(Opposition attacks create minor volatility but do not significantly reduce Chong’s lead.)
The People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate at a press conference, framing the election as a “last safeguard” against the ruling
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%
The People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate at a press conference, framing the election as a “last safeguard” against the ruling party; the nomination spikes his
Oh Se-hoon secures People Power Party nomination for Seoul mayor, officially becoming the party's candidate for the June 3 election
Oh Se-hoon rises to 13%1%
(Official nomination stabilizes Oh's
Han Dong‑hoon officially declared his Busan by‑election bid, stating “I will continue my political career here,” cementing his withdrawal from the Seoul mayoral contest
Han Dong‑hoon officially declared his Busan by‑election bid, stating “I will continue my political career here,” cementing his withdrawal from the Seoul mayoral contest
Han Dong-hoon officially announces his bid for the Busan Buk-gap by-election, confirming he is not a candidate for Seoul mayor.
Han Dong-hoon dips to 0%1%
This formal declaration further cements market consensus that he will not win Seoul mayor, keeping the.
Han Dong‑hoon publicly criticized the People Power Party leader’s U.S.
Han Dong‑hoon dips to 0%1%
trip and reiterated that his focus was on the upcoming Busan by‑election, further confirming his non‑participation in the Seoul race
Media reports confirm Chong Won-oh as the Democratic Party’s candidate, highlighting his victory over rivals and positioning as President Lee’s pick
Chong Won-oh rises to 82%2%
(Reinforcement of nomination news sustains upward momentum.)
Chong Won-oh wins the Democratic Party’s Seoul mayoral nomination, endorsed by President Lee Jae-myung, consolidating party support
Chong Won-oh rises to 80%4%
(Official nomination and presidential endorsement cause a significant
Democratic Party selects Chong Won-o as its official Seoul mayoral candidate, defeating Park Ju-min and Jeon Hyun-hee
Park Ju-min drops to 0%5%
This decisive event ended Park's nomination hopes, causing his market
Democratic Party officially nominates Chong Won‑o as its mayoral candidate, widening the gap and pushing Oh Se‑hoon’s
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 8%6%
Democratic Party officially nominates Chong Won‑o as its mayoral candidate, widening the gap and pushing Oh Se‑hoon’s
Democratic Party nominates Chong Won-o, former Seongdong District chief, as their Seoul mayor candidate, consolidating opposition strength
Oh Se-hoon dips to 12%2%
(Chong's nomination strengthens opposition, pressuring Oh's market position.)
Democratic Party officially nominated Chong Won-o, former Seongdong district chief, as their Seoul mayoral candidate, consolidating party support away from Kang and confirming he
Democratic Party officially nominated Chong Won-o, former Seongdong district chief, as their Seoul mayoral candidate, consolidating party support away from Kang and confirming he would not run
Chong Won-oh participates in Democratic Party primary debates, solidifying his position as frontrunner
Chong Won-oh jumps to 76%7%
(Debate performance and visibility improve market sentiment.)
Speculation arises that Han Dong-hoon will run in the Busan Buk-gap by-election, not Seoul mayor, as reported by Seoul Economic Daily.
Han Dong-hoon drops to 1%5%
This news clarifies his political focus away from Seoul mayoral race, explaining the sustained low.
Park Ju-min criticizes fellow Democratic candidate Jung Won-oh's real estate pledges as unrealistic during the second joint debate
Park Ju-min dips to 4%3%
Despite his critiques, Park failed to gain significant momentum, reflected in a
Report that Han Dong‑hoon was being floated as a contender in the Busan Buk‑A by‑election, sparking speculation that he would not run for Seoul mayor
Han Dong‑hoon dips to 1%4%
Report that Han Dong‑hoon was being floated as a contender in the Busan Buk‑A by‑election, sparking speculation that he would not run for Seoul mayor
Seo Young-kyo appointed head of Legislation and Judiciary Committee, focusing on reforms
Seo Young-kyo dips to 0%1%
Seo's appointment to a key parliamentary committee signaled a shift away from electoral politics toward legislative work, reinforcing market consensus that her mayoral chances were negligible.
President Lee Jae-myung publicly praises Chong Won-oh’s 92.9% constituent satisfaction rating as Seongdong District chief, signaling strong party backing
Chong Won-oh jumps to 69%6%
(High-profile endorsement strengthens Chong’s perceived electability.)
Oh Se-hoon participates in party primary debates, maintaining status as leading conservative candidate amid rising competition
Oh Se-hoon dips to 14%3%
(Continued intra-party competition and public scrutiny keep
Oh Se‑hoon appears in a Yonhap interview defending his record, which temporarily steadies the market and yields a small rebound
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 14%3%
Oh Se‑hoon appears in a Yonhap interview defending his record, which temporarily steadies the market and yields a small rebound
Park Ju-min advances to Democratic Party main primary amid intensifying negative attacks and scrutiny over rival Jung Won-oh's pledges
Park Ju-min rises to 7%3%
His advancement to the main primary and active criticism of rivals briefly boosted his market
After a week‑long power struggle within the PPP, Oh Se‑hoon publicly declares his run as the party’s candidate, pledging party reform;
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 18%4%
the decisive move lifts his odds sharply
Oh Se-hoon officially announces candidacy for Seoul mayor under People Power Party, aiming to drive party reform and innovation
Oh Se-hoon jumps to 28%8%
(Announcement reverses some losses as market reacts positively to his formal entry.)
Oh Se‑hoon finally files as a preliminary candidate but admits to “legal hurdles” over a past corruption probe, causing another
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 20%8%
Oh Se‑hoon finally files as a preliminary candidate but admits to “legal hurdles” over a past corruption probe, causing another
& 03-12] Oh Se-hoon postpones candidacy registration twice, demanding sweeping personnel reforms within the People Power Party and distancing from former President Yoon Suk Yeol
Oh Se-hoon drops to 20%8%
(These delays and internal party conflicts cause a significant drop in market confidence.)
Oh Se‑hoon’s “10‑Year Accountability Headquarters” is launched by rival Chong Won‑o, attacking Oh’s past policies;
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 17%3%
the negative campaign narrative drags his
A poll released by a major Korean research firm shows Democratic candidate Chong Won‑o leading Oh Se‑hoon by double‑digits, driving the market down to a new low
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 17%3%
A poll released by a major Korean research firm shows Democratic candidate Chong Won‑o leading Oh Se‑hoon by double‑digits, driving the market down to a new low
Na Kyung-won criticizes government economic policies amid rising market tensions, but her influence appears limited as her market support drops to near zero
Na Kyung-won dips to 1%3%
Na Kyung-won criticizes government economic policies amid rising market tensions, but her influence appears limited as her market support drops to near zero
Chong Won-oh officially declares his candidacy for Seoul mayor as the Democratic Party finalizes its candidate list
Chong Won-oh rises to 44%4%
(Formal entry into the race increases market confidence.)
Seo Young-kyo re-announces mayoral bid, criticizing incumbent Oh Se-hoon and promising citizen participation
Seo Young-kyo rises to 2%2%
Seo briefly revived her campaign with a renewed platform focusing on citizen engagement and criticizing the incumbent, causing a minor uptick in market
Oh Se‑hoon finally registers as a prospective candidate for the PPP, ending weeks of delay and giving the market a modest rebound
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 29%3%
Oh Se‑hoon finally registers as a prospective candidate for the PPP, ending weeks of delay and giving the market a modest rebound
Oh Se‑hoon delays filing his nomination with the National Election Commission, citing strategic timing, which triggers a sharp
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 26%3%
Oh Se‑hoon delays filing his nomination with the National Election Commission, citing strategic timing, which triggers a sharp
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon declines to officially announce candidacy, calling for party reforms and criticizing current government real estate policies
Oh Se-hoon dips to 33%1%
(Oh's hesitation and calls for reform create uncertainty, contributing to a gradual
Reports confirm Ahn Cheol-soo did not register for PPP nomination by the deadline, while other candidates registered, reinforcing his non-viability as a frontrunner
Reports confirm Ahn Cheol-soo did not register for PPP nomination by the deadline, while other candidates registered, reinforcing his non-viability as a frontrunner
Oh Se‑hoon postpones his candidacy registration for a second time, citing demands for party‑wide reforms;
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 23%9%
the uncertainty pushes his odds to a trough
Kang Hoon-sik resigned from his legislative seat representing Asan-eul in South Chungcheong Province, effectively ending his direct electoral path and reducing his mayoral chances
Kang Hoon-sik dips to 1%2%
Kang Hoon-sik resigned from his legislative seat representing Asan-eul in South Chungcheong Province, effectively ending his direct electoral path and reducing his mayoral chances to near zero
Polls reveal tight races with Park Ju-min trailing Democratic frontrunner Chong Won-o and opposition candidates, highlighting his struggle to gain traction
Park Ju-min dips to 3%4%
Market reacted to Park's lagging position in polls against stronger contenders.
Na Kyung-won denies close ties with Unification Church leader Han Hak-ja, attempting to quell rumors but facing ongoing public skepticism
Na Kyung-won rises to 6%2%
Na Kyung-won denies close ties with Unification Church leader Han Hak-ja, attempting to quell rumors but facing ongoing public skepticism
Poll shows Park Ju-min polling at 9% preference among Seoul voters, trailing behind other candidates like Chong Won-o and Na Kyung-won
Park Ju-min drops to 9%7%
This poll indicated weakening support relative to rivals, contributing to a
Opposition leader Cho Kuk publicly challenges Na Kyung-won over alleged connections to the Unification Church and related controversies, intensifying negative media scrutiny
Na Kyung-won dips to 4%2%
Opposition leader Cho Kuk publicly challenges Na Kyung-won over alleged connections to the Unification Church and related controversies, intensifying negative media scrutiny
Oh Se‑hoon announces he will seek the People Power Party’s nomination, signalling a possible split with party leadership and driving another
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 37%4%
Oh Se‑hoon announces he will seek the People Power Party’s nomination, signalling a possible split with party leadership and driving another
Seo Young-kyo withdraws from Seoul mayoral race, endorses other Democratic candidates
Seo Young-kyo dips to 0%3%
Seo announced she would lay down her candidacy to consolidate support behind stronger Democratic contenders, effectively ending her campaign and causing the market
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon publicly praises Chong Won-oh’s Hangang Bus policy stance, highlighting his growing recognition even from opposition figures
Chong Won-oh jumps to 19%7%
(Positive acknowledgment from incumbent mayor boosts Chong’s profile.)
Oh Se‑hoon’s campaign office opens in Jongno, signalling a formal campaign launch and prompting a modest
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 37%4%
Oh Se‑hoon’s campaign office opens in Jongno, signalling a formal campaign launch and prompting a modest
Hong Ihk-pyo effectively out of Seoul mayoral race as market
Hong Ihk-pyo dips to 0%1%
By early December, Hong Ihk-pyo’s chances were considered negligible, reflected by the market
Kang Hoon-sik remained in his chief of staff role without announcing resignation or mayoral candidacy, dampening market expectations for his Seoul mayor run
Kang Hoon-sik dips to 4%1%
Kang Hoon-sik remained in his chief of staff role without announcing resignation or mayoral candidacy, dampening market expectations for his Seoul mayor run
Na Kyung-won announces appeal against the "Fast Track" verdict, attempting to mitigate damage but maintaining legal uncertainty around her political future
Na Kyung-won rises to 7%1%
Na Kyung-won announces appeal against the "Fast Track" verdict, attempting to mitigate damage but maintaining legal uncertainty around her political future
Oh Se‑hoon files a preliminary candidacy with the National Election Commission, formally entering the race and prompting the market’s first sharp dip as voters reassess his
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 44%8%
Oh Se‑hoon files a preliminary candidacy with the National Election Commission, formally entering the race and prompting the market’s first sharp dip as voters reassess his early‑stage positioning
Following his election as party leader, Cho Kuk faces intensified political opposition and scrutiny, including public refutations of allegations related to private equity funds
Cho Kuk dips to 0%4%
Following his election as party leader, Cho Kuk faces intensified political opposition and scrutiny, including public refutations of allegations related to private equity funds and strategic challenges from rival parties, leading to a rapid
As head of the People Power Party’s local election planning task force, Na Kyung-won proposes reducing the primary polling share from 50% to 30%, a move seen as controversial
Na Kyung-won dips to 4%3%
As head of the People Power Party’s local election planning task force, Na Kyung-won proposes reducing the primary polling share from 50% to 30%, a move seen as controversial within the party and potentially divisive
Continued absence of Ahn Cheol-soo from major party nomination processes and no significant campaign announcements lead to market
Ahn Cheol-soo drops to 0%5%
Continued absence of Ahn Cheol-soo from major party nomination processes and no significant campaign announcements lead to market
Minor Rebuilding Korea Party elects former Justice Minister Cho Kuk as its leader with 98.6% approval during a national convention in Cheongju, marking his formal return to
Cho Kuk rises to 4%2%
Minor Rebuilding Korea Party elects former Justice Minister Cho Kuk as its leader with 98.6% approval during a national convention in Cheongju, marking his formal return to politics and leadership role
Hong Ihk-pyo’s campaign fails to gain traction amid rising prominence of other candidates in Seoul mayoral race
Hong Ihk-pyo drops to 1%8%
No significant campaign developments or endorsements for Hong Ihk-pyo were reported, while other candidates gained momentum, leading to further
Seoul Southern District Court fines Na Kyung-won and others for involvement in the 2019 "Fast Track" National Assembly clash, marking a significant legal setback and raising
Na Kyung-won dips to 6%3%
Seoul Southern District Court fines Na Kyung-won and others for involvement in the 2019 "Fast Track" National Assembly clash, marking a significant legal setback and raising doubts about her candidacy
Seo Young-kyo denies Coupang lunch allegations, vows legal action
Seo Young-kyo dips to 12%4%
Seo strongly refuted allegations related to a Coupang lunch controversy, attempting to protect her reputation amid emerging negative press, which contributed to a slight
Presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik considered a strong potential candidate for Seoul mayor or South Chungcheong governor but had not yet resigned his legislative seat,
Kang Hoon-sik plunges to 16%34%
Presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik considered a strong potential candidate for Seoul mayor or South Chungcheong governor but had not yet resigned his legislative seat, signaling early speculation about his electoral ambitions
Na Kyung-won demands seizure of property linked to President Lee Jae-myung and associates in the Daejang-dong scandal, positioning herself strongly against the ruling party and
Na Kyung-won plunges to 5%45%
Na Kyung-won demands seizure of property linked to President Lee Jae-myung and associates in the Daejang-dong scandal, positioning herself strongly against the ruling party and signaling a hardline stance
Seo Young-kyo announces bid for Seoul mayor, pledging housing reforms and economic revitalization
Seo Young-kyo plunges to 16%34%
Seo Young-kyo declared her candidacy for Seoul mayor, outlining ambitious plans for housing stability and economic growth, marking her official entry into the race. This announcement initially boosted market interest but was followed by rapid
Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) fields multiple candidates including Hong Ihk-pyo for Seoul mayoral race, diluting his individual support
Hong Ihk-pyo plunges to 9%41%
The announcement of a crowded field within the DPK, including Hong Ihk-pyo among several contenders, likely caused the initial sharp drop in market
Chong Won-oh gains early attention as a potential Seoul mayor candidate amid speculation and political maneuvering within the Democratic Party
Chong Won-oh plunges to 12%39%
(Initial market interest followed by a sharp drop likely due to uncertainty and competition among candidates.)
Park Hong-geun announces early candidacy for Seoul mayor emphasizing transportation and real estate pledges, setting early competition context for Oh Se-hoon
Oh Se-hoon rises to 52%2%
(This event marks the early stage of the race, with Oh's position stable but facing emerging challengers.)
Initial market optimism with Han Dong-hoon at 50% likely reflected early speculation about his potential candidacy for Seoul mayor, but no specific news event is documented at
Initial market optimism with Han Dong-hoon at 50% likely reflected early speculation about his potential candidacy for Seoul mayor, but no specific news event is documented at this date. No verifiable news found for this date to explain the initial
Ahn Cheol-soo fails to register as a candidate for the People Power Party (PPP) nomination for Seoul mayor, alongside other prominent figures, signaling a lack of party backing
Ahn Cheol-soo plunges to 5%45%
Ahn Cheol-soo fails to register as a candidate for the People Power Party (PPP) nomination for Seoul mayor, alongside other prominent figures, signaling a lack of party backing and weakening his electoral prospects
Park Ju-min officially announces his candidacy for Seoul mayor, emphasizing labor reform and social justice policies
Park Ju-min plunges to 20%29%
His entry into the race initially garnered significant attention, but early polling showed a rapid drop as competition intensified.
PPP announces Oh Se‑hoon as its preferred mayoral contender, sparking an early rise in his market
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 52%2%
PPP announces Oh Se‑hoon as its preferred mayoral contender, sparking an early rise in his market
President Lee Jae Myung grants a special pardon to Cho Kuk, restoring his eligibility to run for office after serving a prison term for academic fraud and unlawful interference,
President Lee Jae Myung grants a special pardon to Cho Kuk, restoring his eligibility to run for office after serving a prison term for academic fraud and unlawful interference, enabling his political comeback
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