Recent polling shows National and Labour running closely for the top two spots ahead of the November 7 election, with National typically edging ahead as the largest single party while the combined government bloc and Labour-led opposition remain nearly tied overall. Cost-of-living pressures, including rising fuel prices, continue to dominate voter concerns and have kept both major parties within a narrow band. The May budget and stable but modest government approval ratings have not produced decisive separation, leaving room for late swings in support for smaller parties such as ACT, NZ First, and Te Pāti Māori. Traders therefore view Labour as the narrow favorite to finish second, with any sustained poll lead by either major party or coalition adjustments likely to shift probabilities before election day.