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Politics·Primaries

Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner

Julia Letlow 64%

John Fleming 29.7%

Bill Cassidy 9%

Julie Emerson <1%

Polymarket

$242,756 Vol.

Julia Letlow 64%

John Fleming 29.7%

Bill Cassidy 9%

Julie Emerson <1%

Polymarket

$242,756 Vol.

Julia Letlow

$18,434 Vol.

64%

John Fleming

$36,621 Vol.

30%

Bill Cassidy

$32,729 Vol.

9%

Julie Emerson

$35,781 Vol.

<1%

Blake Miguez

$21,734 Vol.

<1%

Samuel “Sammy” Wyatt

$11,980 Vol.

<1%

Tracy Dendy

$19,787 Vol.

<1%

Kathy Seiden

$11,888 Vol.

<1%

Eric Skrmetta

$15,992 Vol.

<1%

Randall Arrington

$17,412 Vol.

<1%

Chris Holder

$9,207 Vol.

<1%

Xan John

$11,191 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.In Louisiana's closed Republican U.S. Senate primary set for May 16—with early voting underway from May 2—trader consensus favors Rep. Julia Letlow at 64% to win the nomination, buoyed by President Trump's January endorsement and her consistent polling leads over incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy, whose 2021 impeachment vote against Trump has alienated the GOP base amid $8 million in attack ads from his allies. State Treasurer John Fleming holds 29.8% on momentum from recent Emerson College polling (April 24–26) showing him edging Letlow 28%–27% in a tight three-way race where Cassidy slips to 21%, highlighting vulnerabilities despite his campaign's internal surveys. Odds diverge from polls emphasizing the race's competitiveness ahead of any runoff, as no candidate nears 50%.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana.

If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$242,756
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 1:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.In Louisiana's closed Republican U.S. Senate primary set for May 16—with early voting underway from May 2—trader consensus favors Rep. Julia Letlow at 64% to win the nomination, buoyed by President Trump's January endorsement and her consistent polling leads over incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy, whose 2021 impeachment vote against Trump has alienated the GOP base amid $8 million in attack ads from his allies. State Treasurer John Fleming holds 29.8% on momentum from recent Emerson College polling (April 24–26) showing him edging Letlow 28%–27% in a tight three-way race where Cassidy slips to 21%, highlighting vulnerabilities despite his campaign's internal surveys. Odds diverge from polls emphasizing the race's competitiveness ahead of any runoff, as no candidate nears 50%.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana.

If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$242,756
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 1:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Julia Letlow" at 64%, followed by "John Fleming" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $242.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Julia Letlow" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Fleming" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.