Trader consensus favors 1.2–1.5 million votes at 38.6% implied probability for total turnout in the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff on May 26, reflecting a typical 40-60% drop-off from the March 3 GOP primary's estimated 2 million-plus ballots amid record overall participation of nearly 4.5 million across parties. The high-stakes contest between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton sustains interest, with a mid-April poll showing Paxton leading by eight points among likely GOP primary voters, energizing the conservative base, while Cornyn's $8 million cash-on-hand advantage supports robust get-out-the-vote operations. Lower bins like 0.9–1.2 million (21%) account for potential voter fatigue in runoffs, as seen historically; early voting begins May 18 and could catalyze shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTurnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
1.2–1.5M 39.9%
1.5–1.8M 18.1%
0.9–1.2M 13%
0.6–0.9M 7%
$82,872 Vol.
$82,872 Vol.
May 26, 2026
<0.6M
3%
0.6–0.9M
7%
0.9–1.2M
29%
1.2–1.5M
45%
1.5–1.8M
18%
1.8–2.1M
6%
2.1–2.4M
2%
2.4–2.7M
1%
2.7M+
1%
1.2–1.5M 39.9%
1.5–1.8M 18.1%
0.9–1.2M 13%
0.6–0.9M 7%
$82,872 Vol.
$82,872 Vol.
May 26, 2026
<0.6M
$939 Vol.
3%
0.6–0.9M
$53,124 Vol.
7%
0.9–1.2M
$934 Vol.
29%
1.2–1.5M
$20,237 Vol.
45%
1.5–1.8M
$516 Vol.
18%
1.8–2.1M
$1,659 Vol.
6%
2.1–2.4M
$1,645 Vol.
2%
2.4–2.7M
$2,408 Vol.
1%
2.7M+
$1,409 Vol.
1%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors 1.2–1.5 million votes at 38.6% implied probability for total turnout in the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff on May 26, reflecting a typical 40-60% drop-off from the March 3 GOP primary's estimated 2 million-plus ballots amid record overall participation of nearly 4.5 million across parties. The high-stakes contest between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton sustains interest, with a mid-April poll showing Paxton leading by eight points among likely GOP primary voters, energizing the conservative base, while Cornyn's $8 million cash-on-hand advantage supports robust get-out-the-vote operations. Lower bins like 0.9–1.2 million (21%) account for potential voter fatigue in runoffs, as seen historically; early voting begins May 18 and could catalyze shifts.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Volume
$82,872End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors 1.2–1.5 million votes at 38.6% implied probability for total turnout in the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff on May 26, reflecting a typical 40-60% drop-off from the March 3 GOP primary's estimated 2 million-plus ballots amid record overall participation of nearly 4.5 million across parties. The high-stakes contest between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton sustains interest, with a mid-April poll showing Paxton leading by eight points among likely GOP primary voters, energizing the conservative base, while Cornyn's $8 million cash-on-hand advantage supports robust get-out-the-vote operations. Lower bins like 0.9–1.2 million (21%) account for potential voter fatigue in runoffs, as seen historically; early voting begins May 18 and could catalyze shifts.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$82,872End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 1.2–1.5 million votes at 38.6% implied probability for total turnout in the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff on May 26, reflecting a typical 40-60% drop-off from the March 3 GOP primary's estimated 2 million-plus ballots amid record overall participation of nearly 4.5 million across parties. The high-stakes contest between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton sustains interest, with a mid-April poll showing Paxton leading by eight points among likely GOP primary voters, energizing the conservative base, while Cornyn's $8 million cash-on-hand advantage supports robust get-out-the-vote operations. Lower bins like 0.9–1.2 million (21%) account for potential voter fatigue in runoffs, as seen historically; early voting begins May 18 and could catalyze shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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