Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability that President Trump will complete his term through 2026, driven by the absence of viable paths for early removal despite recent partisan noise. Health rumors intensified in early April after Trump skipped his annual physical, prompting NAACP calls for 25th Amendment invocation and Rep. John Larson's impeachment articles, but these lack Republican support in Congress where the GOP holds slim majorities. Trump has remained active, signing an executive order on veteran mental health treatments April 20, delivering remarks April 25, meeting Artemis II astronauts April 29, and discussing Ukraine ceasefire prospects with Putin the same day. An evacuation following a White House Correspondents' Dinner incident five days ago raised brief concerns, yet no medical or legal developments have materialized. Midterm elections in November 2026 pose the primary risk for impeachment momentum if Democrats gain ground, but historical barriers and current stability underpin the strong "No" pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$8,016,086 Vol.
$8,016,086 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$8,016,086 Vol.
$8,016,086 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability that President Trump will complete his term through 2026, driven by the absence of viable paths for early removal despite recent partisan noise. Health rumors intensified in early April after Trump skipped his annual physical, prompting NAACP calls for 25th Amendment invocation and Rep. John Larson's impeachment articles, but these lack Republican support in Congress where the GOP holds slim majorities. Trump has remained active, signing an executive order on veteran mental health treatments April 20, delivering remarks April 25, meeting Artemis II astronauts April 29, and discussing Ukraine ceasefire prospects with Putin the same day. An evacuation following a White House Correspondents' Dinner incident five days ago raised brief concerns, yet no medical or legal developments have materialized. Midterm elections in November 2026 pose the primary risk for impeachment momentum if Democrats gain ground, but historical barriers and current stability underpin the strong "No" pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$8,016,086End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability that President Trump will complete his term through 2026, driven by the absence of viable paths for early removal despite recent partisan noise. Health rumors intensified in early April after Trump skipped his annual physical, prompting NAACP calls for 25th Amendment invocation and Rep. John Larson's impeachment articles, but these lack Republican support in Congress where the GOP holds slim majorities. Trump has remained active, signing an executive order on veteran mental health treatments April 20, delivering remarks April 25, meeting Artemis II astronauts April 29, and discussing Ukraine ceasefire prospects with Putin the same day. An evacuation following a White House Correspondents' Dinner incident five days ago raised brief concerns, yet no medical or legal developments have materialized. Midterm elections in November 2026 pose the primary risk for impeachment momentum if Democrats gain ground, but historical barriers and current stability underpin the strong "No" pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,016,311End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability that President Trump will complete his term through 2026, driven by the absence of viable paths for early removal despite recent partisan noise. Health rumors intensified in early April after Trump skipped his annual physical, prompting NAACP calls for 25th Amendment invocation and Rep. John Larson's impeachment articles, but these lack Republican support in Congress where the GOP holds slim majorities. Trump has remained active, signing an executive order on veteran mental health treatments April 20, delivering remarks April 25, meeting Artemis II astronauts April 29, and discussing Ukraine ceasefire prospects with Putin the same day. An evacuation following a White House Correspondents' Dinner incident five days ago raised brief concerns, yet no medical or legal developments have materialized. Midterm elections in November 2026 pose the primary risk for impeachment momentum if Democrats gain ground, but historical barriers and current stability underpin the strong "No" pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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