State Rep. James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, positioning him as the certain general election opponent to the GOP runoff winner between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Recent Texas Public Opinion Research polling from late April shows Paxton leading Cornyn 48%-40% ahead of the May runoff, fueling trader consensus on a Talarico-Paxton matchup at 58.5% implied probability versus 40% for Talarico-Cornyn. Talarico's record $27 million Q1 fundraising haul and leads in head-to-head general election polls against both Republicans underscore Democrats' competitive path in this battleground race, with the GOP runoff outcome pivotal for November dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas Senate Election Matchup
Texas Senate Election Matchup
Talarico & Paxton 59%
Talarico & Cornyn 40%
Crockett & Hunt <1%
Other <1%
$706,710 Vol.
$706,710 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Talarico & Paxton
59%
Talarico & Cornyn
40%
Crockett & Hunt
1%
Other
<1%
Crockett & Paxton
<1%
Talarico & Hunt
<1%
Crockett & Cornyn
<1%
Talarico & Paxton 59%
Talarico & Cornyn 40%
Crockett & Hunt <1%
Other <1%
$706,710 Vol.
$706,710 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Talarico & Paxton
$266,938 Vol.
59%
Talarico & Cornyn
$191,583 Vol.
40%
Crockett & Hunt
$26,468 Vol.
1%
Other
$27,374 Vol.
<1%
Crockett & Paxton
$105,556 Vol.
<1%
Talarico & Hunt
$23,958 Vol.
<1%
Crockett & Cornyn
$64,832 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.State Rep. James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, positioning him as the certain general election opponent to the GOP runoff winner between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Recent Texas Public Opinion Research polling from late April shows Paxton leading Cornyn 48%-40% ahead of the May runoff, fueling trader consensus on a Talarico-Paxton matchup at 58.5% implied probability versus 40% for Talarico-Cornyn. Talarico's record $27 million Q1 fundraising haul and leads in head-to-head general election polls against both Republicans underscore Democrats' competitive path in this battleground race, with the GOP runoff outcome pivotal for November dynamics.
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$706,710End Date
Mar 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.State Rep. James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, positioning him as the certain general election opponent to the GOP runoff winner between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Recent Texas Public Opinion Research polling from late April shows Paxton leading Cornyn 48%-40% ahead of the May runoff, fueling trader consensus on a Talarico-Paxton matchup at 58.5% implied probability versus 40% for Talarico-Cornyn. Talarico's record $27 million Q1 fundraising haul and leads in head-to-head general election polls against both Republicans underscore Democrats' competitive path in this battleground race, with the GOP runoff outcome pivotal for November dynamics.
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$706,710End Date
Mar 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...State Rep. James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, positioning him as the certain general election opponent to the GOP runoff winner between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Recent Texas Public Opinion Research polling from late April shows Paxton leading Cornyn 48%-40% ahead of the May runoff, fueling trader consensus on a Talarico-Paxton matchup at 58.5% implied probability versus 40% for Talarico-Cornyn. Talarico's record $27 million Q1 fundraising haul and leads in head-to-head general election polls against both Republicans underscore Democrats' competitive path in this battleground race, with the GOP runoff outcome pivotal for November dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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