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Congress predictions & odds

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Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

24%

≤47

$2M Vol.

$162K Liq.

6

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

52%

Democratic Party

$2M Vol.

$220K Liq.

36

Ends in 6 months

FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?

FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?

77%

$34.6K Vol.

$5.1K Liq.

Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory

Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory

95%

Pass 3-6%

$545K Vol.

$42.3K Liq.

63

How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in April?

How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in April?

47%

6

$21.4K Vol.

$7.4K Liq.

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

2%

$77.3K Vol.

$16.8K Liq.

9

Ends in 6 months

Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

28%

$27.2K Vol.

$12.5K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Which bills will become law in 2026?

Which bills will become law in 2026?

59%

FISA Section 702 reauthorization

$91.0K Vol.

$32.2K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

How many Republican Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

How many Republican Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

50%

>4

$4.4K Vol.

$7.4K Liq.

Major US official out by May 31?

Major US official out by May 31?

57%

$2.7K Vol.

$1.7K Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in March?

How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in March?

98%

4

$31.4K Vol.

$1.8K Liq.

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

11%

$162K Vol.

$25.4K Liq.

19

Ends in 8 months

How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

71%

0

$4.5K Vol.

$14.7K Liq.

Blue tsunami in 2026?

Blue tsunami in 2026?

48%

$24.2K Vol.

$24.7K Liq.

1

Ends in 7 months

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

97%

Kevin Cramer

$96.0K Vol.

$17.0K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

83%

Not Extended & Democratic Party

$394K Vol.

$29.3K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Will Trump be impeached by June 30?

Will Trump be impeached by June 30?

3%

$313K Vol.

$53.4K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?

Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?

15%

$7.7K Vol.

$14.3K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?

1%

$22.8K Vol.

$3.5K Liq.

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

66%

$60.5K Vol.

$14.9K Liq.

Ends in over 2 years

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Congress.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Congress that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $6.3M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 52% chance to Democratic Party. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Congress predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.