Recent rating shifts by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball toward Democrats in four battleground Senate races, coupled with a top GOP super PAC warning on April 30 that the Republican majority is at risk, have fueled trader consensus clustering tightly around 47-51 Republican seats post-2026 midterms. Despite a map favoring Republicans—who hold 53 seats now and defend fewer competitive ones—historical midterm penalties against the president's party, tightening polls in toss-ups like Ohio's special election, Maine, and Georgia, plus Democratic fundraising edges, keep outcomes uncertain. Economic data, Trump administration approval trends, and late surveys in swing-state battlegrounds could tip the balance before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$2,127,886 Vol.
$2,127,886 Vol.
≤47
24%
48
12%
49
16%
50
18%
51
16%
52
8%
53
4%
54
1%
55
1%
56
1%
57+
2%
$2,127,886 Vol.
$2,127,886 Vol.
≤47
$56,383 Vol.
24%
48
$19,445 Vol.
12%
49
$14,724 Vol.
16%
50
$64,592 Vol.
18%
51
$163,649 Vol.
16%
52
$510,245 Vol.
8%
53
$16,585 Vol.
4%
54
$709,629 Vol.
1%
55
$394,791 Vol.
1%
56
$142,887 Vol.
1%
57+
$34,956 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Recent rating shifts by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball toward Democrats in four battleground Senate races, coupled with a top GOP super PAC warning on April 30 that the Republican majority is at risk, have fueled trader consensus clustering tightly around 47-51 Republican seats post-2026 midterms. Despite a map favoring Republicans—who hold 53 seats now and defend fewer competitive ones—historical midterm penalties against the president's party, tightening polls in toss-ups like Ohio's special election, Maine, and Georgia, plus Democratic fundraising edges, keep outcomes uncertain. Economic data, Trump administration approval trends, and late surveys in swing-state battlegrounds could tip the balance before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volumen
$2,127,886Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Recent rating shifts by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball toward Democrats in four battleground Senate races, coupled with a top GOP super PAC warning on April 30 that the Republican majority is at risk, have fueled trader consensus clustering tightly around 47-51 Republican seats post-2026 midterms. Despite a map favoring Republicans—who hold 53 seats now and defend fewer competitive ones—historical midterm penalties against the president's party, tightening polls in toss-ups like Ohio's special election, Maine, and Georgia, plus Democratic fundraising edges, keep outcomes uncertain. Economic data, Trump administration approval trends, and late surveys in swing-state battlegrounds could tip the balance before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$2,127,886Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent rating shifts by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball toward Democrats in four battleground Senate races, coupled with a top GOP super PAC warning on April 30 that the Republican majority is at risk, have fueled trader consensus clustering tightly around 47-51 Republican seats post-2026 midterms. Despite a map favoring Republicans—who hold 53 seats now and defend fewer competitive ones—historical midterm penalties against the president's party, tightening polls in toss-ups like Ohio's special election, Maine, and Georgia, plus Democratic fundraising edges, keep outcomes uncertain. Economic data, Trump administration approval trends, and late surveys in swing-state battlegrounds could tip the balance before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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