Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a record 37 Republican House incumbents announcing they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms as of April 30, clustering odds tightly around 36–44, with 40–43 (43.5%), 44+ (41.9%), and 36–39 (40.3%) leading. Florida Rep. Daniel Webster's April 28 retirement pushed the tally past 36, amid a March surge that tied historic highs for the president's party ahead of midterms. Vulnerable members in battleground districts face redistricting headwinds and midterm loss risks, while others eye Senate or gubernatorial bids. Primary filing deadlines in summer states could spark more announcements, potentially separating outcomes if leadership stabilizes the exodus or additional departures accelerate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos miembros republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no se postularán en 2026?
¿Cuántos miembros republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no se postularán en 2026?
28–31 10%
<24 5.9%
32–35 5.0%
24–27 3.5%
$55,426 Vol.
$55,426 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
6%
24–27
3%
28–31
18%
32–35
5%
36–39
40%
40–43
43%
44+
41%
28–31 10%
<24 5.9%
32–35 5.0%
24–27 3.5%
$55,426 Vol.
$55,426 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
$3,590 Vol.
6%
24–27
$18,843 Vol.
3%
28–31
$21,425 Vol.
18%
32–35
$4,502 Vol.
5%
36–39
$2,468 Vol.
40%
40–43
$2,077 Vol.
43%
44+
$2,522 Vol.
41%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a record 37 Republican House incumbents announcing they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms as of April 30, clustering odds tightly around 36–44, with 40–43 (43.5%), 44+ (41.9%), and 36–39 (40.3%) leading. Florida Rep. Daniel Webster's April 28 retirement pushed the tally past 36, amid a March surge that tied historic highs for the president's party ahead of midterms. Vulnerable members in battleground districts face redistricting headwinds and midterm loss risks, while others eye Senate or gubernatorial bids. Primary filing deadlines in summer states could spark more announcements, potentially separating outcomes if leadership stabilizes the exodus or additional departures accelerate.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volumen
$55,426Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a record 37 Republican House incumbents announcing they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms as of April 30, clustering odds tightly around 36–44, with 40–43 (43.5%), 44+ (41.9%), and 36–39 (40.3%) leading. Florida Rep. Daniel Webster's April 28 retirement pushed the tally past 36, amid a March surge that tied historic highs for the president's party ahead of midterms. Vulnerable members in battleground districts face redistricting headwinds and midterm loss risks, while others eye Senate or gubernatorial bids. Primary filing deadlines in summer states could spark more announcements, potentially separating outcomes if leadership stabilizes the exodus or additional departures accelerate.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$55,426Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a record 37 Republican House incumbents announcing they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms as of April 30, clustering odds tightly around 36–44, with 40–43 (43.5%), 44+ (41.9%), and 36–39 (40.3%) leading. Florida Rep. Daniel Webster's April 28 retirement pushed the tally past 36, amid a March surge that tied historic highs for the president's party ahead of midterms. Vulnerable members in battleground districts face redistricting headwinds and midterm loss risks, while others eye Senate or gubernatorial bids. Primary filing deadlines in summer states could spark more announcements, potentially separating outcomes if leadership stabilizes the exodus or additional departures accelerate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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