**Record Republican House retirements have positioned the 36–39 range as the leading outcome in this market.** As of mid-June 2026, 36 GOP incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, matching Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tallies of 58 total House departures (36 Republicans and 22 Democrats). This includes members retiring outright or pursuing other offices such as Senate seats or governorships. **The elevated total stems from an unusually early and broad retirement wave.** Factors include a narrow GOP majority entering the cycle, institutional frustration in a polarized environment, and members opting for higher office or private life ahead of what many view as difficult midterms. Announcements accelerated through late 2025 and into 2026, with some additional resignations further shaping the count. Traders appear to view further major shifts as unlikely before filing deadlines close most opportunities for new departures, keeping probabilities concentrated in the current range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos miembros republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no se postularán en 2026?
¿Cuántos miembros republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no se postularán en 2026?
36–39 56.0%
44+ 11.9%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 6.0%
$62,838 Vol.
$62,838 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
2%
24–27
24%
28–31
4%
32–35
10%
36–39
56%
40–43
6%
44+
9%
36–39 56.0%
44+ 11.9%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 6.0%
$62,838 Vol.
$62,838 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
$5,917 Vol.
2%
24–27
$19,688 Vol.
24%
28–31
$23,052 Vol.
4%
32–35
$5,046 Vol.
10%
36–39
$3,334 Vol.
56%
40–43
$2,658 Vol.
6%
44+
$3,143 Vol.
9%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Record Republican House retirements have positioned the 36–39 range as the leading outcome in this market.** As of mid-June 2026, 36 GOP incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, matching Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tallies of 58 total House departures (36 Republicans and 22 Democrats). This includes members retiring outright or pursuing other offices such as Senate seats or governorships.
**The elevated total stems from an unusually early and broad retirement wave.** Factors include a narrow GOP majority entering the cycle, institutional frustration in a polarized environment, and members opting for higher office or private life ahead of what many view as difficult midterms. Announcements accelerated through late 2025 and into 2026, with some additional resignations further shaping the count. Traders appear to view further major shifts as unlikely before filing deadlines close most opportunities for new departures, keeping probabilities concentrated in the current range.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volumen
$62,838Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Record Republican House retirements have positioned the 36–39 range as the leading outcome in this market.** As of mid-June 2026, 36 GOP incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, matching Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tallies of 58 total House departures (36 Republicans and 22 Democrats). This includes members retiring outright or pursuing other offices such as Senate seats or governorships.
**The elevated total stems from an unusually early and broad retirement wave.** Factors include a narrow GOP majority entering the cycle, institutional frustration in a polarized environment, and members opting for higher office or private life ahead of what many view as difficult midterms. Announcements accelerated through late 2025 and into 2026, with some additional resignations further shaping the count. Traders appear to view further major shifts as unlikely before filing deadlines close most opportunities for new departures, keeping probabilities concentrated in the current range.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$62,838Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Record Republican House retirements have positioned the 36–39 range as the leading outcome in this market.** As of mid-June 2026, 36 GOP incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, matching Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tallies of 58 total House departures (36 Republicans and 22 Democrats). This includes members retiring outright or pursuing other offices such as Senate seats or governorships. **The elevated total stems from an unusually early and broad retirement wave.** Factors include a narrow GOP majority entering the cycle, institutional frustration in a polarized environment, and members opting for higher office or private life ahead of what many view as difficult midterms. Announcements accelerated through late 2025 and into 2026, with some additional resignations further shaping the count. Traders appear to view further major shifts as unlikely before filing deadlines close most opportunities for new departures, keeping probabilities concentrated in the current range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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