Trader consensus favors exactly seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 52.5% implied probability, matching the confirmed announcements from Sens. Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24), Steve Daines (Montana, March 4), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor). These recent March retirements amid a record wave of congressional exits—driven by partisan polarization and reported policy clashes—have solidified the seven count, with no new developments in the past 30 days. Odds for eight (17.8%) and eleven (18.9%) reflect bets on further announcements before state primary filing deadlines this spring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos senadores republicanos no se postularán en 2026?
¿Cuántos senadores republicanos no se postularán en 2026?
7 46%
6 12.0%
9 8.6%
5 6.8%
$73,271 Vol.
$73,271 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<5
2%
5
7%
6
8%
7
46%
8
16%
9
9%
10
4%
11
17%
12 o más
1%
7 46%
6 12.0%
9 8.6%
5 6.8%
$73,271 Vol.
$73,271 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<5
$20,046 Vol.
2%
5
$15,530 Vol.
7%
6
$26,193 Vol.
8%
7
$2,138 Vol.
46%
8
$1,589 Vol.
16%
9
$1,284 Vol.
9%
10
$1,255 Vol.
4%
11
$918 Vol.
17%
12 o más
$4,318 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors exactly seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 52.5% implied probability, matching the confirmed announcements from Sens. Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24), Steve Daines (Montana, March 4), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor). These recent March retirements amid a record wave of congressional exits—driven by partisan polarization and reported policy clashes—have solidified the seven count, with no new developments in the past 30 days. Odds for eight (17.8%) and eleven (18.9%) reflect bets on further announcements before state primary filing deadlines this spring.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$73,271Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors exactly seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 52.5% implied probability, matching the confirmed announcements from Sens. Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24), Steve Daines (Montana, March 4), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor). These recent March retirements amid a record wave of congressional exits—driven by partisan polarization and reported policy clashes—have solidified the seven count, with no new developments in the past 30 days. Odds for eight (17.8%) and eleven (18.9%) reflect bets on further announcements before state primary filing deadlines this spring.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$73,271Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors exactly seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 52.5% implied probability, matching the confirmed announcements from Sens. Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24), Steve Daines (Montana, March 4), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor). These recent March retirements amid a record wave of congressional exits—driven by partisan polarization and reported policy clashes—have solidified the seven count, with no new developments in the past 30 days. Odds for eight (17.8%) and eleven (18.9%) reflect bets on further announcements before state primary filing deadlines this spring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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