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Política·Cámara De Representantes

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Política·Cámara De Representantes

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 90%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 20.8%

Wendy Huang 4.3%

Carin Elam 4.0%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Aisha Wahab 90%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 20.8%

Wendy Huang 4.3%

Carin Elam 4.0%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Aisha Wahab

$550 Vol.

76%

Melissa Hernandez

$325 Vol.

44%

Wendy Huang

$530 Vol.

4%

Carin Elam

$253 Vol.

4%

Matt Ortega

$265 Vol.

12%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$743 Vol.

9%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$228 Vol.

21%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.**State Sen. Aisha Wahab holds a strong position in the June 16 special primary to fill California's 14th congressional seat, vacated by Eric Swalwell's April resignation amid misconduct allegations.** As the sole candidate receiving the California Democratic Party endorsement, Wahab benefits from superior name recognition, fundraising, and institutional support in the heavily Democratic Alameda County-based district. Other Democratic contenders—including Melissa Hernandez, Victor Aguilar Jr., and Matt Ortega—are splitting the remaining vote, reducing the chance any reaches the 50% threshold needed to win outright and advance the contest to an August 18 runoff. Republican and minor candidates trail far behind, consistent with the district's partisan makeup. Recent early vote counts and candidate filings have reinforced trader consensus around Wahab's lead while highlighting the fragmented field that could still produce a runoff.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volumen
$2,894
Fecha de finalización
18 ago 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.**State Sen. Aisha Wahab holds a strong position in the June 16 special primary to fill California's 14th congressional seat, vacated by Eric Swalwell's April resignation amid misconduct allegations.** As the sole candidate receiving the California Democratic Party endorsement, Wahab benefits from superior name recognition, fundraising, and institutional support in the heavily Democratic Alameda County-based district. Other Democratic contenders—including Melissa Hernandez, Victor Aguilar Jr., and Matt Ortega—are splitting the remaining vote, reducing the chance any reaches the 50% threshold needed to win outright and advance the contest to an August 18 runoff. Republican and minor candidates trail far behind, consistent with the district's partisan makeup. Recent early vote counts and candidate filings have reinforced trader consensus around Wahab's lead while highlighting the fragmented field that could still produce a runoff.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volumen
$2,894
Fecha de finalización
18 ago 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Aisha Wahab" con 76%, seguido de "Melissa Hernandez" con 44%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 76¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 76% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 16, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "CA-14 Special Election Winner?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" es "Aisha Wahab" con 76%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 76% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Melissa Hernandez" con 44%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.