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Política·Cámara De Representantes

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Política·Cámara De Representantes

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 75%

Melissa Hernandez 14%

Rakhi Israni Singh 10%

Carin Elam 5.6%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Aisha Wahab 75%

Melissa Hernandez 14%

Rakhi Israni Singh 10%

Carin Elam 5.6%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Aisha Wahab

$156 Vol.

80%

Melissa Hernandez

$54 Vol.

14%

Wendy Huang

$54 Vol.

5%

Carin Elam

$83 Vol.

6%

Matt Ortega

$59 Vol.

5%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$204 Vol.

10%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$53 Vol.

2%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.State Senator Aisha Wahab leads Polymarket trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability to win the CA-14 special election, driven by her April 21 California Democratic Party endorsement—the sole Democrat backed in the party's caucus—and a +20-point lead over former Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez (9%) in an April 1-4 David Binder poll for a progressive PAC. In this Democratic stronghold where predecessor Eric Swalwell won nearly 70% in 2024, Wahab's support from Indivisible Tri-Valley, Alameda County Democrats, and other left-leaning groups positions her to potentially exceed 50% in the June 16 top-two primary or advance easily to the August 18 general. Hernandez trails at 19% as the main Democratic challenger amid a fragmented field of 11 certified candidates, while Republicans like Wendy Huang face steep partisan barriers. Early consolidation behind Wahab has boosted her frontrunner status, though turnout and additional endorsements could shift dynamics before the primary.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volumen
$662
Fecha de finalización
18 ago 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.State Senator Aisha Wahab leads Polymarket trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability to win the CA-14 special election, driven by her April 21 California Democratic Party endorsement—the sole Democrat backed in the party's caucus—and a +20-point lead over former Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez (9%) in an April 1-4 David Binder poll for a progressive PAC. In this Democratic stronghold where predecessor Eric Swalwell won nearly 70% in 2024, Wahab's support from Indivisible Tri-Valley, Alameda County Democrats, and other left-leaning groups positions her to potentially exceed 50% in the June 16 top-two primary or advance easily to the August 18 general. Hernandez trails at 19% as the main Democratic challenger amid a fragmented field of 11 certified candidates, while Republicans like Wendy Huang face steep partisan barriers. Early consolidation behind Wahab has boosted her frontrunner status, though turnout and additional endorsements could shift dynamics before the primary.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volumen
$662
Fecha de finalización
18 ago 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Aisha Wahab" con 80%, seguido de "Melissa Hernandez" con 14%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 80¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 80% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 16, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "CA-14 Special Election Winner?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" es "Aisha Wahab" con 80%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 80% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Melissa Hernandez" con 14%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.