Trader consensus favors fewer than three Democratic House incumbents losing their primaries (<3 at 48.5%), followed closely by 4-6 (35.9%) and 7-9 (34%), reflecting the rarity of such upsets amid strong incumbency advantages and historical base rates of one to five total House primary defeats per cycle across parties. No Democratic incumbents have lost in early March primaries in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, despite spirited progressive and generational challenges—highlighted by Rep. Valerie Foushee's narrow win in NC-4 and two Texas Democrats forced into May runoffs. A Punchbowl News analysis on April 21 noted nearly two-thirds of seeking-reelection Democrats face challengers fueled by intra-party anger over leadership and age, with Reps. Dan Goldman, Steve Cohen, and others in peril, but superior fundraising and establishment backing sustain low-loss expectations as May-June primaries loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado<3 43%
7-9 33%
4-6 32.0%
>15 4.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
<3
43%
4-6
32%
7-9
33%
10-12
4%
13-15
4%
>15
4%
<3 43%
7-9 33%
4-6 32.0%
>15 4.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
<3
$154 Vol.
43%
4-6
$583 Vol.
32%
7-9
$52 Vol.
33%
10-12
$356 Vol.
4%
13-15
$336 Vol.
4%
>15
$243 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus favors fewer than three Democratic House incumbents losing their primaries (<3 at 48.5%), followed closely by 4-6 (35.9%) and 7-9 (34%), reflecting the rarity of such upsets amid strong incumbency advantages and historical base rates of one to five total House primary defeats per cycle across parties. No Democratic incumbents have lost in early March primaries in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, despite spirited progressive and generational challenges—highlighted by Rep. Valerie Foushee's narrow win in NC-4 and two Texas Democrats forced into May runoffs. A Punchbowl News analysis on April 21 noted nearly two-thirds of seeking-reelection Democrats face challengers fueled by intra-party anger over leadership and age, with Reps. Dan Goldman, Steve Cohen, and others in peril, but superior fundraising and establishment backing sustain low-loss expectations as May-June primaries loom.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volumen
$1,725Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus favors fewer than three Democratic House incumbents losing their primaries (<3 at 48.5%), followed closely by 4-6 (35.9%) and 7-9 (34%), reflecting the rarity of such upsets amid strong incumbency advantages and historical base rates of one to five total House primary defeats per cycle across parties. No Democratic incumbents have lost in early March primaries in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, despite spirited progressive and generational challenges—highlighted by Rep. Valerie Foushee's narrow win in NC-4 and two Texas Democrats forced into May runoffs. A Punchbowl News analysis on April 21 noted nearly two-thirds of seeking-reelection Democrats face challengers fueled by intra-party anger over leadership and age, with Reps. Dan Goldman, Steve Cohen, and others in peril, but superior fundraising and establishment backing sustain low-loss expectations as May-June primaries loom.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$1,725Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors fewer than three Democratic House incumbents losing their primaries (<3 at 48.5%), followed closely by 4-6 (35.9%) and 7-9 (34%), reflecting the rarity of such upsets amid strong incumbency advantages and historical base rates of one to five total House primary defeats per cycle across parties. No Democratic incumbents have lost in early March primaries in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, despite spirited progressive and generational challenges—highlighted by Rep. Valerie Foushee's narrow win in NC-4 and two Texas Democrats forced into May runoffs. A Punchbowl News analysis on April 21 noted nearly two-thirds of seeking-reelection Democrats face challengers fueled by intra-party anger over leadership and age, with Reps. Dan Goldman, Steve Cohen, and others in peril, but superior fundraising and establishment backing sustain low-loss expectations as May-June primaries loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes