Virginia Democrats’ push for mid-decade congressional redistricting via a constitutional amendment advanced to an April 2026 referendum and initially passed, but the Virginia Supreme Court invalidated the measure on May 8 for violating the state constitution’s intervening-election requirement between legislative sessions. The U.S. Supreme Court denied an emergency appeal on May 15, leaving the 2021 map drawn by special masters in place. Governor Abigail Spanberger subsequently confirmed that the 2026 elections, including August primaries, will proceed under the existing districts. With the legal pathway closed and the election calendar advancing rapidly, traders assign overwhelming probability against any new map taking effect. Late shifts remain theoretically possible only through unforeseen court reversals or legislative maneuvers, though both appear precluded by binding rulings and procedural deadlines.