Recent polling averages show Democrats holding a roughly 6-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party amid unified Republican control of government. This positioning underpins trader emphasis on Democratic margins in the 6-12 point range as leading outcomes, while "Other" reflects uncertainty over redistricting impacts in states like Texas and California plus the potential for late-cycle shifts. Forecasts from models like the Economist and aggregators tie the current advantage to voter referendum dynamics on the second Trump administration, with seat projections implying a national popular vote swing that favors Democrats but leaves exact margins sensitive to turnout and economic indicators through November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2026 Parciales: Margen de victoria del voto popular de la Cámara
2026 Parciales: Margen de victoria del voto popular de la Cámara
Demócratas 8-10% 21%
Demócratas 6-8% 18%
Demócratas 10-12% 16%
Demócratas 4-6% 9%
$75,397 Vol.
$75,397 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Demócratas 16%+
4%
Demócratas 14-16%
3%
Demócratas 12-14%
8%
Demócratas 10-12%
16%
Demócratas 8-10%
21%
Demócratas 6-8%
18%
Demócratas 4-6%
9%
Demócratas 2-4%
6%
Demócratas 0-2%
4%
Republicanos 0-2%
7%
Republicanos 2-4%
7%
Republicanos 4-6%
2%
Republicanos 6%+
2%
Demócratas 8-10% 21%
Demócratas 6-8% 18%
Demócratas 10-12% 16%
Demócratas 4-6% 9%
$75,397 Vol.
$75,397 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Demócratas 16%+
$1,511 Vol.
4%
Demócratas 14-16%
$961 Vol.
3%
Demócratas 12-14%
$3,024 Vol.
8%
Demócratas 10-12%
$4,579 Vol.
16%
Demócratas 8-10%
$5,165 Vol.
21%
Demócratas 6-8%
$9,465 Vol.
18%
Demócratas 4-6%
$2,224 Vol.
9%
Demócratas 2-4%
$9,021 Vol.
6%
Demócratas 0-2%
$8,660 Vol.
4%
Republicanos 0-2%
$2,077 Vol.
7%
Republicanos 2-4%
$26,600 Vol.
7%
Republicanos 4-6%
$760 Vol.
2%
Republicanos 6%+
$1,558 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling averages show Democrats holding a roughly 6-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party amid unified Republican control of government. This positioning underpins trader emphasis on Democratic margins in the 6-12 point range as leading outcomes, while "Other" reflects uncertainty over redistricting impacts in states like Texas and California plus the potential for late-cycle shifts. Forecasts from models like the Economist and aggregators tie the current advantage to voter referendum dynamics on the second Trump administration, with seat projections implying a national popular vote swing that favors Democrats but leaves exact margins sensitive to turnout and economic indicators through November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$75,397Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling averages show Democrats holding a roughly 6-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party amid unified Republican control of government. This positioning underpins trader emphasis on Democratic margins in the 6-12 point range as leading outcomes, while "Other" reflects uncertainty over redistricting impacts in states like Texas and California plus the potential for late-cycle shifts. Forecasts from models like the Economist and aggregators tie the current advantage to voter referendum dynamics on the second Trump administration, with seat projections implying a national popular vote swing that favors Democrats but leaves exact margins sensitive to turnout and economic indicators through November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volumen
$75,397Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages show Democrats holding a roughly 6-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party amid unified Republican control of government. This positioning underpins trader emphasis on Democratic margins in the 6-12 point range as leading outcomes, while "Other" reflects uncertainty over redistricting impacts in states like Texas and California plus the potential for late-cycle shifts. Forecasts from models like the Economist and aggregators tie the current advantage to voter referendum dynamics on the second Trump administration, with seat projections implying a national popular vote swing that favors Democrats but leaves exact margins sensitive to turnout and economic indicators through November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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