Trader consensus in the Virginia Republican U.S. Senate primary favors retired Army Maj. Gen. Bert Mizusawa at 52% implied probability, propelled by his superior Q1 2026 fundraising of $192,000 raised—well ahead of rivals—and the Republican Party of Virginia's April 7 certification of him, Kim Farington, and David Williams for the August 4 ballot. Mizusawa's decades of military leadership positions him as the electability choice against Democratic incumbent Mark Warner in battleground Virginia, absent public polls. Marine veteran David Williams trails at 21.5% despite $50,000 raised and national security credentials, while Farington garners 15.8% via recent grassroots events like April speeches to GOP committees. Endorsements, debates, or further fundraising could tip this uncrowded but fluid primary field including Attorney General Jason Miyares.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAs the filing deadline passes and the primary field stabilizes, Mizusawa maintains steady market support at 53%
Bert Mizusawa rises to 53%1%
As the filing deadline passes and the primary field stabilizes, Mizusawa maintains steady market support at 53%
Market
With no new news and the primary approaching, Smith's
Republican primary polls show overwhelming support for other candidates, effectively ending Chuck Smith's chances
Chuck Smith dips to 2%1%
Polling data confirmed Smith's non-viability, pushing his market
Market reacts positively to Mizusawa’s growing campaign visibility and fundraising reports, pushing his
Bert Mizusawa rises to 54%3%
Market reacts positively to Mizusawa’s growing campaign visibility and fundraising reports, pushing his
Market modestly recovers Kim Farington’s
Kim Farington jumps to 14%7%
Market modestly recovers Kim Farington’s
Virginia holds a statewide ballot measure election on redistricting, with political analysts noting potential impacts on voter turnout and party dynamics
David Williams rises to 23%1%
The election's outcome and its effect on Republican enthusiasm slightly improved Williams's outlook.
Virginia holds a statewide ballot measure election, shifting political focus away from lesser-known Senate candidates
The special election and referendum drew voter and media attention, further sidelining Al Mina’s campaign visibility and market prospects.
Virginia holds statewide ballot measure election; focus shifts away from Chuck Smith's candidacy
Chuck Smith dips to 4%3%
With no new developments for Smith and attention on other elections, his market
Mizusawa’s campaign files official paperwork and voter petitions, reinforcing his commitment and campaign viability ahead of the April 2 filing deadline, leading to a
Bert Mizusawa rises to 51%3%
Mizusawa’s campaign files official paperwork and voter petitions, reinforcing his commitment and campaign viability ahead of the April 2 filing deadline, leading to a
Virginia Republican Party announces primary procedures and early voting dates, emphasizing a competitive primary on August 4
David Williams rises to 22%1%
Clarification of the primary process led to slight stabilization in Williams's market
Republican Party of Virginia reiterates the three certified candidates for the primary, with no new high-profile entrants, maintaining Kim Farington’s status but with limited
Kim Farington jumps to 14%7%
Republican Party of Virginia reiterates the three certified candidates for the primary, with no new high-profile entrants, maintaining Kim Farington’s status but with limited momentum
The Republican Party of Virginia publicly confirms the three certified candidates for the primary, solidifying Mizusawa’s position and boosting market confidence
Bert Mizusawa jumps to 48%14%
The Republican Party of Virginia publicly confirms the three certified candidates for the primary, solidifying Mizusawa’s position and boosting market confidence
Virginia Republican primary filing deadline passes with no significant new developments for Al Mina
The filing deadline confirmed the candidate list; Al Mina remained on the ballot but without notable campaign momentum, leading to a stable low market
Filing deadline for 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate primary passes with no filing by Winsome Earle-Sears
Her absence from the Senate primary candidate list officially ended market speculation on her winning the primary.
Official candidate list confirms Chuck Smith is not on the Republican primary ballot
Chuck Smith drops to 7%10%
The official confirmation that Chuck Smith would not appear on the ballot led to a steep decline in his market
Filing deadline passes on April 2, confirming Williams and several other Republicans on the primary ballot, solidifying the competitive field
David Williams dips to 21%3%
The finalized candidate list confirmed a crowded race, limiting Williams's upside.
Mizusawa’s campaign releases new endorsements and policy proposals, improving his standing and market
Bert Mizusawa surges to 34%18%
Mizusawa’s campaign releases new endorsements and policy proposals, improving his standing and market
Bert Mizusawa gains momentum as leading Republican candidate in Virginia Senate primary
Chuck Smith jumps to 41%9%
Despite Smith's struggles, Mizusawa's rising profile briefly caused a minor rebound in Smith's
Market reacts to emerging competition and campaign developments from rival candidates, causing Mizusawa’s
Bert Mizusawa drops to 33%6%
Market reacts to emerging competition and campaign developments from rival candidates, causing Mizusawa’s
Incumbent Senator Mark Warner files for reelection, reinforcing his strong position and likely deterring GOP support for challengers like Kim Farington
Kim Farington drops to 3%8%
Incumbent Senator Mark Warner files for reelection, reinforcing his strong position and likely deterring GOP support for challengers like Kim Farington
Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner files for reelection; Republican field including Al Mina confirmed
Al Mina dips to 1%3%
Mark Warner’s formal filing and campaign launch solidified the race dynamics, with Al Mina’s chances diminishing as the Republican primary field became clearer and more competitive.
Polling data released shows Mark Warner as strong Democratic incumbent; Republican primary remains competitive with no clear frontrunner, keeping Williams's chances low
David Williams rises to 18%2%
Uncertainty in the Republican primary caused minor fluctuations in Williams's
Republican primary candidate Sarah Adlakha is defeated in a related primary, narrowing the field but not significantly boosting Williams
David Williams dips to 18%2%
The elimination of a minor candidate had limited impact on Williams's standing.
Mizusawa gains momentum amid increased media coverage highlighting his military background and campaign platform, pushing his market
Bert Mizusawa surges to 55%18%
Mizusawa gains momentum amid increased media coverage highlighting his military background and campaign platform, pushing his market
The Republican Party of Virginia certifies Bert Mizusawa as one of three candidates qualified for the August 4 primary ballot after he submits sufficient signatures, leading to a
Bert Mizusawa surges to 37%21%
The Republican Party of Virginia certifies Bert Mizusawa as one of three candidates qualified for the August 4 primary ballot after he submits sufficient signatures, leading to a significant
Court rules against Chuck Smith's lawsuit to appear on the Republican primary ballot
Chuck Smith drops to 17%11%
A court decision denied Chuck Smith's attempt to qualify for the ballot, significantly reducing his chances and causing a sharp drop in market
Reports emerge that Bert Mizusawa failed to qualify for the Virginia GOP U.S.
Bert Mizusawa drops to 6%5%
Senate primary due to insufficient signatures, causing a sharp drop in his market
Bert Mizusawa formally announces his candidacy for the Virginia U.S.
Bert Mizusawa plunges to 11%39%
Senate Republican primary, entering a crowded field with many voters undecided, initially boosting market interest
Republican Party of Virginia certifies three candidates for U.S. Senate primary ballot; Chuck Smith has a pending lawsuit to qualify later
Chuck Smith drops to 38%13%
The Republican Party of Virginia announced that Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams qualified for the primary ballot, while Chuck Smith's status remained uncertain due to a pending lawsuit, causing initial
Market reacts to increased visibility of other Republican candidates and lack of new Al Mina campaign developments
Al Mina jumps to 22%12%
A brief peak followed by a sharp drop reflects market uncertainty as other candidates gained media attention, while Al Mina’s campaign remained low-profile.
Continued fundraising and campaign visibility struggles for Kim Farington contribute to further
Kim Farington drops to 11%8%
Continued fundraising and campaign visibility struggles for Kim Farington contribute to further
Reports highlight Kim Farrington and Bert Mizusawa as leading Republican contenders, with Williams trailing in fundraising and endorsements
David Williams drops to 29%12%
Media focus on rivals' strengths contributed to a decline in Williams's market
Other Republican candidates gain traction with campaign announcements and endorsements
Al Mina jumps to 17%7%
Competitors such as Kim Farrington and Bert Mizusawa announced campaigns and received endorsements, increasing competition and causing minor fluctuations in Al Mina’s market
Market reacts to ongoing low name recognition and fundraising challenges for Kim Farington amid a crowded GOP field lacking a clear frontrunner after Reeves’ exit
Kim Farington surges to 38%24%
Market reacts to ongoing low name recognition and fundraising challenges for Kim Farington amid a crowded GOP field lacking a clear frontrunner after Reeves’ exit
Abigail Spanberger sworn in as governor of Virginia, confirming Earle-Sears’s political setback
This event confirmed the election outcome and the unlikelihood of Earle-Sears pursuing Senate.
Other Republican candidates, including Kim Farrington and Bert Mizusawa, gain media attention as they file and announce campaigns, increasing competition
David Williams drops to 30%12%
The emergence of multiple Republican candidates diluted Williams's perceived chances, causing a
Fundraising reports reveal Kim Farington’s campaign has raised minimal funds ($11,464 cash on hand), significantly trailing incumbent Mark Warner’s massive war chest, raising
Kim Farington plunges to 10%43%
Fundraising reports reveal Kim Farington’s campaign has raised minimal funds ($11,464 cash on hand), significantly trailing incumbent Mark Warner’s massive war chest, raising doubts about her competitiveness
Al Mina listed as a declared Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia, generating initial market optimism
Al Mina plunges to 13%37%
Al Mina, an economic development consultant and former independent Senate candidate, was publicly recognized as a Republican candidate, initially boosting market interest.
David Williams officially files to run for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Virginia, establishing his candidacy early in the race
David Williams drops to 41%9%
Williams's early filing positioned him as a serious contender, initially supporting a strong market
Virginia State Senator Bryce Reeves, considered the GOP frontrunner, abruptly ends his U.S.
Kim Farington surges to 53%36%
Senate bid citing family concerns, leaving Kim Farington as one of the leading remaining Republican candidates
Republican Party of Virginia certifies Kim Farington as one of three candidates qualified for the August 4 Republican U.S.
Kim Farington plunges to 32%18%
Senate primary, officially placing her on the ballot alongside Bert Mizusawa and David Williams
Abigail Spanberger defeats Winsome Earle-Sears in the Virginia gubernatorial election by a 15.36% margin
Her decisive loss further diminished any Senate prospects, solidifying the market's low valuation.
Winsome Earle-Sears secures the Republican nomination for governor of Virginia
Winsome Earle-Sears drops to 1%11%
Her nomination confirmed she would not run for Senate, leading to a sharp
Former state senator Amanda Chase and former state delegate Dave LaRock announce primary challenges against Earle-Sears for the Republican gubernatorial nomination
Winsome Earle-Sears jumps to 12%7%
The emergence of primary challengers introduced uncertainty about her political strength, causing
Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares announces he will not run for governor, making Earle-Sears the presumptive Republican gubernatorial nominee
Winsome Earle-Sears rises to 5%2%
This reinforced her gubernatorial candidacy, slightly stabilizing her market
Winsome Earle-Sears announces candidacy for Governor of Virginia in the 2025 election, signaling she will not run for U.S. Senate in 2026
Winsome Earle-Sears plunges to 3%47%
This announcement shifted market expectations away from her Senate run, causing a steep initial
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