Bert Mizusawa holds a commanding lead in the August 4 Republican primary for Virginia’s open U.S. Senate seat, reflecting his stronger name recognition, fundraising, and military background as a retired major general and West Point graduate. Recent certification by the Republican Party of Virginia confirmed Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams on the ballot after they met signature thresholds, while Chuck Smith’s challenge remains unresolved in court. An early May poll showed Mizusawa and Farington nearly tied amid high undecideds, yet trader pricing has since consolidated behind Mizusawa. Farington and Williams trail as lower-profile challengers with limited visibility, and the remaining long-shot candidates have shown negligible movement. The primary’s proximity and Mizusawa’s structural advantages anchor current market positioning ahead of the general election against incumbent Democrat Mark Warner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican Party of Virginia Certifies Three Candidates for Primary Ballot
Bert Mizusawa jumps to 68%14%
The Republican Party of Virginia officially certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams for the August 4 primary ballot, solidifying Mizusawa's position as the frontrunner.
Final market prices show Bert Mizusawa leading Virginia Republican Senate primary
Bert Mizusawa rises to 50%3%
By late May 2026, Mizusawa's market price stabilized at 50%, with Kim Farington at 30% and other candidates trailing, reflecting current expectations ahead of the August primary.
Virginia GOP announces final U.S. Senate primary candidates
The Republican Party of Virginia confirmed the final candidates for the August 4 primary, with Bert Mizusawa emerging as the only candidate with sustained market support through multiple price reversals.
New poll confirms strong Democratic position and close Republican primary race in Virginia
A poll from The Virginia Project reaffirmed Democratic Senator Mark Warner's strong lead and showed a tight Republican primary with Mizusawa at 23.5% and Farington at 22.3%, with many undecided voters. This reinforced market confidence in Mizusawa's lead but also the competitive nature of the primary.
Republican Party of Virginia Certifies Three Candidates for Senate Primary Ballot
Chuck Smith dips to 1%2%
The Republican Party of Virginia officially certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams for the August primary ballot, while Chuck Smith's ballot status remained pending due to a lawsuit.
Kim Farington emphasizes military support and veterans' issues in campaign
Kim Farington jumps to 28%13%
Kim Farington publicly highlighted her commitment to supporting military veterans and their families, aiming to strengthen her appeal among Republican primary voters, which contributed to some price recovery in May 2026.
Republican primary candidates for U.S. Senate certified by Virginia GOP
The Republican Party of Virginia certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams as official candidates for the August 4 primary, clarifying the field and impacting market prices accordingly.
Virginia Republican primary candidates prepare for August 4 primary
Bert Mizusawa surges to 71%18%
With the primary approaching, candidates like Bert Mizusawa gained momentum reflected in market price increases, while others like Kim Farington and David Williams saw declines as voter preferences consolidated.
David Williams' support declines amid shifting primary dynamics
David Williams dips to 7%4%
David Williams' market price dropped from 11% to 7% as campaign momentum shifted towards other candidates, reflecting decreased voter support and fundraising challenges.
Bert Mizusawa maintains lead in final days before Virginia GOP primary
Bert Mizusawa rises to 52%4%
As the primary approached, Bert Mizusawa held a steady lead with a market price around 52%, indicating strong positioning to win the nomination despite fluctuations earlier in the campaign.
Jason Miyares joins Mike Pence’s conservative think tank after election loss
Former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares, who lost his 2025 reelection bid, joined former Vice President Mike Pence’s think tank Advancing American Freedom, signaling a shift away from electoral politics and explaining his low market price in the Senate primary.
Jason Miyares Declares for Virginia Gubernatorial Race
Jason Miyares, former Attorney General, declared for the Virginia gubernatorial race, which may have affected his visibility in the Senate market.
Republican Party of Virginia certifies candidates for August 4 Senate primary
The Republican Party of Virginia officially certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams as candidates for the August 4 Republican primary ballot, confirming the field and solidifying the primary contest.
Kim Farington surges after campaign revitalization
Kim Farington surges to 37%22%
Kim Farington's campaign saw a resurgence due to new endorsements and increased media coverage, causing his market price to jump from 15% to 37%.
Virginia Project poll puts Farington, Mizusawa ahead in Senate primary
Kim Farington jumps to 29%7%
A poll conducted May 1‑5 by the right‑wing Virginia Project showed Kim Farington at 22.3 %, Bert Mizusawa at 23.5 % and David Williams at 10.1 % – the same figures that appear in the market’s price snapshot on May 8. The poll’s release provoked a modest rebound in Kim’s price (from 22 % to 29 %) and a slight rise for Mizusawa (from 23 % to 31 %).
New Virginia Poll Shows Tight Race Between Mizusawa and Farington
Bert Mizusawa dips to 48%4%
A statewide poll conducted by The Virginia Project and The Public Sentiment Institute showed Bert Mizusawa leading Kim Farington 23.5% to 22.3% among likely primary voters, boosting both candidates' profiles.
New poll shows Democratic Senator Mark Warner leading Republican challengers by wide margins
A poll released in early May showed incumbent Democrat Mark Warner leading all Republican primary candidates by about 25 points, indicating a challenging general election environment for Republicans.
Poll shows Democratic Senator Mark Warner leading Republican challengers by about 25 points
A poll by The Virginia Project and The Public Sentiment Institute showed incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holding a roughly 25-point lead over Republican challengers in the 2026 Senate race. This indicated a strong Democratic advantage and challenged Republican candidates' prospects, affecting market prices accordingly.
Poll shows Senator Mark Warner leading Republican challengers by ~25 points in Virginia
A May 2026 poll by The Virginia Project showed Democratic Senator Mark Warner with a strong lead over Republican candidates including Mizusawa and Farington, indicating a challenging general election environment for Republicans and influencing market prices.
Primary Poll Shows Mizusawa and Farington in Tight Race
Bert Mizusawa drops to 42%10%
A Public Sentiment Institute poll of likely Republican primary voters showed Bert Mizusawa leading slightly with 24% followed closely by Kim Farington at 22%, with a large portion of voters undecided.
New Virginia Poll Shows Mizusawa and Farington in Tight Primary Race
Bert Mizusawa rises to 49%4%
A statewide poll conducted by The Public Sentiment Institute and The Virginia Project showed Bert Mizusawa leading with 23.5% and Kim Farington close behind at 22.3% among likely primary voters.
Poll shows Mark Warner leading Republican challengers by wide margins
Bert Mizusawa jumps to 50%7%
A poll conducted in early May 2026 showed Senator Mark Warner leading all Republican challengers by approximately 25 points. Among Republicans, Bert Mizusawa and Kim Farington were the top contenders with roughly 23.5% and 22.3% support respectively, with a large portion undecided. This polling data influenced market prices, reflecting Mizusawa's rise and Farington's decline.
New Virginia Poll Shows Farington and Mizusawa Leading Undecided GOP Primary Field
Bert Mizusawa jumps to 45%11%
A statewide poll released by The Virginia Project showed Kim Farington at 22.3% and Bert Mizusawa at 23.5% among likely Republican primary voters, with David Williams trailing at 10.1%.
New Poll Shows Tight Race Between Mizusawa and Farington
Bert Mizusawa drops to 42%10%
A Public Sentiment Institute poll showed Bert Mizusawa leading Kim Farington by a narrow margin of 24% to 22% among likely Republican primary voters.
New Virginia Poll Shows Tight Primary Race Between Mizusawa and Farington
Kim Farington surges to 31%15%
A statewide poll fielded May 1-5 showed Bert Mizusawa leading Kim Farington by a narrow margin of 23.5% to 22.3% among likely voters, with a large portion of undecideds.
New Poll Shows Bert Mizusawa and Kim Farington Leading Republican Primary Field
Bert Mizusawa dips to 44%4%
A Public Sentiment Institute poll of likely Republican primary voters showed Bert Mizusawa leading with 24%, followed closely by Kim Farington at 22%.
Virginia Republican Primary Poll Shows Tight Race Between Mizusawa and Farington
Bert Mizusawa drops to 39%13%
A Public Sentiment Institute poll conducted May 1-5 showed Bert Mizusawa leading slightly with 24% among likely voters, closely followed by Kim Farington at 22%, with David Williams at 10%.
Virginia Project Poll Shows Tight Race Between Mizusawa and Farington
Bert Mizusawa jumps to 49%11%
A new Republican primary poll conducted by the Public Sentiment Institute showed Bert Mizusawa leading Kim Farington by a narrow margin of 24% to 22% among likely voters.
New Virginia Poll Shows Mizusawa and Farington Leading Primary Field
Kim Farington surges to 31%15%
A statewide poll fielded by The Virginia Project showed Bert Mizusawa leading the Republican primary field at 23.5%, closely followed by Kim Farington at 22.3%.
Poll shows Senator Mark Warner leading Republican challengers by wide margins in Virginia
A poll by The Virginia Project showed incumbent Senator Mark Warner leading all Republican challengers by about 25 points, with Mizusawa and Farington polling in the low 20s and a large undecided voter segment, influencing market prices downward for challengers.
Poll indicates Kim Farington and Bert Mizusawa leading Virginia Republican Senate primary with large undecided voters
The same poll revealed that if the Republican primary were held then, Mizusawa and Farington would be nearly tied as front-runners, but a large portion of voters remained undecided, reflecting uncertainty in the primary race.
Virginia Project poll shows Warner up 25 pts; Mizusawa leads other GOP challengers
Bert Mizusawa jumps to 53%12%
A poll released by the Virginia Project and the Public Sentiment Institute on May 5 showed Democratic incumbent Mark Warner leading by 25 points and gave the Republican field low numbers. The poll showed Bert Mizusawa trailing Warner 54.6 %‑28.8 % but still ahead of other GOP challengers, which helped lift his market price from the low‑40 % range to a peak of 53 % on May 29.
First Republican Primary Poll Shows Tight Race Between Mizusawa and Farington
Kim Farington jumps to 29%14%
A Public Sentiment Institute poll showed Bert Mizusawa leading Kim Farington by a narrow margin of 24% to 22% among likely voters, causing a surge in Farington's price.
New Virginia Poll Shows Bert Mizusawa and Kim Farington Leading Republican Field
Bert Mizusawa dips to 47%3%
A statewide poll fielded by The Virginia Project and The Public Sentiment Institute showed Bert Mizusawa leading the Republican primary field at 23.5%, closely followed by Kim Farington at 22.3%.
Poll shows Senator Mark Warner leading Republican challengers by wide margins in Virginia
Bert Mizusawa rises to 50%2%
A poll released in early May 2026 showed incumbent Senator Mark Warner leading all Republican primary candidates by large margins, reinforcing expectations of a Democratic hold and influencing Republican primary market prices.
Poll shows Mark Warner leading Republican Senate challengers by wide margins
A poll by The Virginia Project showed incumbent Mark Warner leading all tested Republican challengers by about 25 points, indicating a strong Democratic position and influencing market expectations for the general election.
First Major Primary Poll Shows Tight Race Between Mizusawa and Farington
Bert Mizusawa dips to 48%1%
A new statewide poll fielded by The Virginia Project showed Bert Mizusawa leading the Republican primary field at 23.5%, closely followed by Kim Farington at 22.3%, with David Williams at 10.1%.
Poll shows Virginia Democrats lead and Republican primary undecided with Mizusawa and Farington close
A poll by The Virginia Project showed Senator Mark Warner leading all Republican challengers by about 25 points, with Republican primary voters split between Kim Farington (22.3%) and Bert Mizusawa (23.5%), and a large 39.7% undecided. This poll influenced market prices, reflecting uncertainty and competition between the top Republican candidates.
Poll shows Mark Warner leading Republican challengers by wide margins in Virginia
Kim Farington drops to 15%14%
A poll conducted in early May showed Mark Warner with a strong lead over Republican candidates including Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa, and David Williams, reinforcing market expectations of a difficult race for Republicans.
Poll shows competitive Virginia Republican Senate primary with Mizusawa and Farington leading
A May 2026 poll indicated a close Republican primary race with Bert Mizusawa and Kim Farington leading but with a large undecided voter segment, reflecting uncertainty and competition in the primary.
Poll shows Kim Farington and Bert Mizusawa leading Republican primary with large undecided voters
A May 2026 poll by The Public Sentiment Institute showed Kim Farington and Bert Mizusawa leading the Republican primary with around 22-24% support each, but with nearly 40% undecided, reflecting a competitive and fluid race.
Virginia Dept. of Elections certifies final 2026 Senate primary ballot
Bert Mizusawa rises to 52%4%
The Virginia Department of Elections released the official certified list of primary candidates, confirming only Mizusawa, Farington and Williams remained on the ballot. This final confirmation pushed Mizusawa’s price back up to 52 % and cemented the low probabilities for the other seven candidates.
Poll shows Mark Warner leading Republican challengers by wide margins
A poll conducted in early May 2026 showed Mark Warner leading Republican candidates Kim Farington and Bert Mizusawa by about 25 points, reflecting the Democratic advantage and influencing market perceptions of Republican viability.
Virginia Supreme Court strikes down Democratic congressional redistricting plan
The Virginia Supreme Court invalidated a voter-approved Democratic redistricting plan, undermining Democrats' chances to gain additional U.S. House seats in Virginia. This decision likely affected the political landscape and voter expectations in Virginia, impacting the Republican Senate primary market by reinforcing Republican advantages in the state.
Republican primary candidates fined for wagering on elections on Kalshi platform
Three congressional candidates, including a Virginia Senate challenger, were fined and suspended by Kalshi for betting on their own elections, raising ethical concerns and affecting market perceptions of candidate viability.
Republican candidates fined and suspended for wagering on elections on Kalshi platform
Mark Moran, an independent candidate, was fined and suspended for betting on his own election, drawing attention to election betting controversies. This event highlighted the regulatory scrutiny around election markets but did not directly affect the Republican primary candidates' prices.
Virginia GOP primary field narrows to three leading contenders
Bert Mizusawa jumps to 54%8%
Local news outlets published a roundup noting that the primary field had narrowed to three major contenders—Mizusawa, Farington, and Williams—causing a brief rally in Mizusawa’s price back up to the low‑50s.
Three congressional candidates fined for wagering on their own elections including Virginia Senate candidate
Kalshi fined and suspended three candidates, including a Virginia Senate candidate, for betting on their own races, raising concerns about insider trading and impacting market confidence and prices for affected candidates.
Republican Party of Virginia Certifies Three Candidates for Senate Primary Ballot
Bert Mizusawa rises to 51%4%
The Republican Party of Virginia officially certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams for the August 4 primary ballot, excluding other candidates.
Republican Party of Virginia Certifies Three Candidates for Senate Primary
Kim Farington jumps to 15%8%
The Republican Party of Virginia announced that only Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa, and David Williams submitted enough signatures to qualify for the primary ballot, while Chuck Smith filed a lawsuit.
Virginia GOP Certifies Three Candidates for U.S. Senate Primary Ballot
Bert Mizusawa surges to 54%20%
The Republican Party of Virginia certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams for the primary ballot, while noting Chuck Smith has a pending lawsuit.
Virginia GOP Certifies Three Candidates for U.S. Senate Primary Ballot
Chuck Smith drops to 3%5%
The Republican Party of Virginia officially certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams for the primary ballot, while Chuck Smith filed a lawsuit to qualify.
Republican Party of Virginia announces primary candidates for U.S. Senate
On April 7, 2026, the Republican Party of Virginia officially announced that Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams had submitted sufficient signatures to appear on the August 4 primary ballot, confirming the main contenders and impacting market expectations.
Republican Party of Virginia Certifies Three Candidates for Senate Primary Ballot
Chuck Smith plunges to 7%26%
The Republican Party of Virginia officially certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams for the primary ballot, while noting Chuck Smith had a pending lawsuit.
Republican Party of Virginia certifies candidates for U.S. Senate primary
The Republican Party of Virginia certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams as official candidates for the August 4, 2026, Republican primary ballot. This formal certification solidified the primary field and influenced market pricing for these candidates.
Bert Mizusawa Announces US Senate Campaign
Retired Major General Bert Mizusawa formally joined the US Senate race, focusing on national security and supporting citizens. This announcement energized his campaign.
Winsome Earle-Sears secures Republican nomination for Virginia governor
Jason Miyares drops to 1%7%
Winsome Earle-Sears secured the Republican nomination for governor, consolidating party support and impacting related Senate primary dynamics, indirectly affecting candidates like Jason Miyares who had gubernatorial ambitions.
Winsome Earle-Sears becomes Republican nominee for Virginia governor
Winsome Earle-Sears plunges to 1%49%
Winsome Earle-Sears secured the Republican nomination for governor in 2025, which likely reduced her focus on the Senate race and contributed to her market price decline in the Senate primary.
Kim Farington's campaign gains traction with endorsements and fundraising
Kim Farington surges to 31%15%
Kim Farington's market price increased from 16% to 31% following endorsements and successful fundraising efforts, signaling growing support within the party base.
Bert Mizusawa rebounds with strong debate performance
Bert Mizusawa surges to 57%23%
Mizusawa's performance in a key Republican primary debate was well-received, causing his market price to peak at 57%, signaling renewed confidence among supporters.
Republican candidates certified for Virginia Senate primary ballot
The Republican Party of Virginia certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams to appear on the August 4, 2026 primary ballot, solidifying the field and impacting market prices accordingly.
Independent candidate Mark Moran leaves Democratic Party to run for Senate
Mark Moran's announcement to run as an independent after leaving the Democratic Party added a new dynamic to the race, potentially affecting Republican candidates' chances in the general election.
Democrat Senate candidate Mark Moran leaves party to run as independent in Virginia
Mark Moran's departure from the Democratic Party to run as an independent was reported, impacting the general election dynamics but indirectly influencing Republican primary market sentiment by highlighting the Democratic incumbent's strength.
Democrat Mark Moran leaves party to run as independent in Virginia Senate race
Mark Moran's departure from the Democratic Party to run as an independent was reported, potentially affecting Republican primary dynamics by altering general election expectations.
Republican Party of Virginia certifies candidates for U.S. Senate primary
The Virginia GOP certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams as official candidates for the August 4 Republican primary, confirming the field and impacting market prices accordingly.
Independent candidate Mark Moran announces U.S. Senate run in Virginia
Mark Moran, formerly a Democrat, announced his independent candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Virginia, aiming to present an alternative to the major party candidates. This added complexity to the race and potentially affected Republican primary dynamics and market perceptions.
Mark Moran Launches Independent Bid for U.S. Senate in Virginia
Chuck Smith plunges to 6%22%
Mark Moran announced he would run for the U.S. Senate as an independent rather than a Democrat, shifting the dynamics of the race and highlighting the lesser-known Republican field.
Mark Moran Launches Independent Bid for U.S. Senate in Virginia
Mark Moran announced he is running for the U.S. Senate as an independent, leaving the Democratic primary and altering the general election dynamics.
Virginia GOP certifies three candidates for U.S. Senate primary after filing deadline
Bert Mizusawa jumps to 52%8%
The filing deadline for the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Virginia closed on April 2 2026. The Republican Party of Virginia subsequently certified three candidates – Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington and David Williams – to appear on the August 4 primary ballot. This formal qualification gave all three a clear path to the primary and caused a sharp rise in Mizusawa’s market price from the low‑40 % range to roughly 52 % the next day.
Mark Moran Launches Independent Senate Bid, Leaving Democratic Primary
Bert Mizusawa rises to 51%2%
Mark Moran announced he would run for the U.S. Senate as an independent, shifting the general election dynamics and clarifying the field of primary contenders.
Independent Candidate Mark Moran Launches Campaign, Shifting General Election Dynamics
Kim Farington jumps to 15%9%
Mark Moran left the Democratic Party to run as an independent, altering the general election landscape and drawing attention to the lesser-known Republican primary field.
Republican Party of Virginia Certifies Three Candidates for Senate Primary Ballot
Chuck Smith plunges to 12%20%
The Republican Party of Virginia officially certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams for the primary ballot, while noting Chuck Smith had a pending lawsuit.
Mark Moran Launches Independent Senate Campaign After Leaving Democrats
Chuck Smith plunges to 4%25%
Mark Moran announced he was breaking from the Democratic establishment to run as an independent, shifting the general election dynamics and coinciding with a drop in Chuck Smith's primary odds.
Mark Moran Launches Independent Campaign for U.S. Senate in Virginia
Bert Mizusawa rises to 51%4%
Mark Moran announced he is leaving the Democratic Party to run as an independent candidate, shifting the general election dynamics and solidifying the Republican field's status.
Mark Moran Launches Independent Senate Campaign as Filing Deadline Closes
Kim Farington jumps to 15%14%
Mark Moran announced his independent run for the U.S. Senate on the filing deadline day, while the Republican field was noted to consist of lesser-known candidates who had not raised significant funds.
Jason Miyares Appointed Strategic Advisor to FullPAC
Jason Miyares took on another private sector advisory role with FullPAC, further confirming he would not enter the Senate primary race.
Mark Moran Launches Independent Senate Bid as Major Candidates File for Ballot
Al Mina drops to 1%14%
Mark Moran announced his independent run for the U.S. Senate, while the official filing deadline passed, solidifying the list of active Republican primary contenders.
Mark Moran leaves Democratic Party to run as Independent for U.S. Senate
Mark Moran announced he would run as an independent candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia, breaking from the Democratic Party. This added a new dynamic to the general election race, potentially affecting Republican primary strategies and market perceptions.
Former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares Joins FullPAC as Strategic Advisor
Jason Miyares formalized his role as a strategic advisor for FullPAC, further cementing his focus on private sector consulting rather than a 2026 Senate run.
Mark Moran Launches Independent Bid for U.S. Senate in Virginia
Bert Mizusawa surges to 43%24%
Former Democrat Mark Moran announced he is running as an independent, altering the general election dynamics and leaving the Republican field with lesser-known candidates.
Mark Moran Launches Independent Bid for U.S. Senate in Virginia
Al Mina drops to 1%13%
Mark Moran announced he is running for the U.S. Senate as an independent, shaking up the general election landscape and leaving the Republican field with lesser-known candidates.
Mark Moran announces independent U.S. Senate run in Virginia
Mark Moran, formerly a Democrat, announced his independent candidacy for U.S. Senate, potentially impacting the general election dynamics but not the Republican primary market.
Mark Moran Launches Independent Campaign for U.S. Senate in Virginia
Chuck Smith plunges to 7%24%
Mark Moran announced his run as an independent candidate, shaking up the general election landscape and drawing attention to the lesser-known Republican primary field.
Jason Miyares Joins FullPAC as Strategic Advisor
Jason Miyares formalized his private sector career by joining FullPAC, Inc. as a Strategic Advisor, further cementing his decision to stay out of the Senate race.
Mark Moran Launches Independent Bid for Virginia Senate Seat
Mark Moran announced he would run for the U.S. Senate as an independent, shaking up the general election dynamics and highlighting the lesser-known status of the remaining Republican primary candidates.
Mark Moran Leaves Democratic Primary to Run as Independent
Kim Farington jumps to 15%13%
Mark Moran announced he was leaving the Democratic primary to run as an independent, clarifying the general election field and highlighting the lesser-known Republican primary candidates.
Bert Mizusawa faces campaign challenges, price dips
Bert Mizusawa plunges to 14%16%
Following reports of campaign difficulties and increased competition, Mizusawa's market price dropped sharply from 30% to 14%, reflecting uncertainty about his nomination prospects.
David Williams Campaigns in Goochland to Build Statewide Coalition
David Williams rises to 22%2%
Combat veteran David Williams brought his campaign to the Goochland Republican Committee to build name recognition and challenge incumbent Senator Mark Warner.
David Williams campaigns at Goochland Republican Committee meeting
David Williams plunges to 32%18%
David Williams, a combat veteran and Republican candidate, campaigned to build support among local Republicans, aiming to increase his visibility and market support in the primary race.
David Williams campaigns to Goochland Republicans for U.S. Senate
David Williams plunges to 6%44%
David Williams, a combat veteran and former CIA officer, actively campaigned among Republican voters in Goochland, Virginia, aiming to build support for his Senate bid, which influenced his market price early in 2026.
Senator Mark Warner files for reelection, Republican candidates qualify for primary ballot
Mark Warner filed for reelection, and the Republican Party certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams for the August 4 primary, confirming the main contenders and influencing market prices.
Mark Warner files for reelection to U.S. Senate in Virginia
Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner officially filed for reelection, setting the stage for the 2026 Senate race and influencing Republican primary dynamics as challengers prepared to face him.
Mark Warner Files for Reelection, Outlining Virginia Senate Field
Incumbent Senator Mark Warner formally launched his campaign, highlighting the declared Republican challengers including Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa, David Williams, and Chuck Smith.
Sen. Mark Warner files for re‑election, launching fourth term campaign
Bert Mizusawa rises to 48%3%
Incumbent Senator Mark Warner filed paperwork to run for a fourth term on March 16. The filing underscored that the Democratic side would have an uncontested incumbent, prompting Republican primary voters to coalesce around the most viable challenger – Bert Mizusawa – and giving his price a modest bump in early April.
Senator Mark Warner Files for Reelection, Launching Bid for Fourth Term
Kim Farington jumps to 8%6%
Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner formally filed his paperwork for reelection, solidifying the race and highlighting the declared Republican challengers, including Kim Farington and Bert Mizusawa.
Mark Warner Files for Fourth US Senate Term
Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner formally launched his campaign for a fourth term, filing the required paperwork and voter petitions. This solidified the Democratic side of the race.
Kim Farington's support drops to historic lows amid campaign challenges
Kim Farington drops to 2%12%
Farington's market price fell to a low of 1-2% due to campaign difficulties and lack of significant media coverage, reflecting diminished chances in the primary.
Kim Farington's support drops sharply in Virginia GOP Senate primary
Kim Farington drops to 2%13%
Kim Farington's market price fell to a low of 1-2% in mid-March, indicating a loss of support possibly due to campaign setbacks or unfavorable polling results.
Bert Mizusawa gains momentum with key endorsements
Bert Mizusawa surges to 52%36%
Bert Mizusawa's campaign received significant endorsements from prominent Republican figures, causing his market price to rise from 16% to 52%, indicating increased confidence in his nomination chances.
Bert Mizusawa's support rebounds sharply to near 50%
Bert Mizusawa surges to 49%43%
Following a trough, Mizusawa's market price surged back to around 49%, indicating renewed campaign strength or favorable polling.
Bert Mizusawa gains momentum in Virginia Republican Senate primary
Bert Mizusawa surges to 51%37%
Bert Mizusawa's market price surged from 14% to 51% amid growing campaign momentum and increased visibility, positioning him as the frontrunner in the primary race.
Republican Party of Virginia certifies Senate primary candidates
The Republican Party of Virginia certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams as candidates for the August 4, 2026, Republican Senate primary, formalizing the contest and influencing market prices accordingly.
Winsome Earle-Sears secures Republican nomination for Virginia governor
Jason Miyares plunges to 10%40%
While not directly related to the Senate primary, the gubernatorial nomination of Winsome Earle-Sears and the political dynamics involving Jason Miyares, a potential Senate candidate, influenced market perceptions of Miyares' viability, reflected in his declining price.
Republican Party of Virginia certifies Mizusawa, Farington, and Williams for Senate primary ballot
Bert Mizusawa surges to 50%44%
The Republican Party of Virginia officially certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams as candidates qualified for the August 4 Republican Senate primary ballot. This formal announcement stabilized Mizusawa's market price and confirmed the main contenders.
Chuck Smith faces pending lawsuit that may affect his ballot qualification
Chuck Smith plunges to 1%32%
A pending lawsuit involving Chuck Smith’s ballot qualification was reported in late February, casting doubt on his ability to appear on the primary ballot. The uncertainty corresponded with a sharp decline in Smith’s market price from the mid‑30 % range down to a single‑digit level by early March.
Former Attorney General Miurares announces he will not run for Senate
Jason Miyares plunges to 9%41%
Jason Miurares, a former Virginia Attorney General, issued a brief statement indicating he would not be filing for the Senate primary, which caused his market price to sink from 50 % to 9 % the next day.
Retired Major General Bert Mizusawa Files to Run for US Senate
Bert Mizusawa surges to 50%44%
Retired Major General Bert Mizusawa officially filed to run for the United States Senate in Virginia, entering the Republican primary field.
Bert Mizusawa's market price fluctuates amid campaign developments
Bert Mizusawa plunges to 6%44%
Bert Mizusawa's market price showed significant volatility in late February and March, reflecting changing perceptions of his campaign strength and news coverage.
Bert Mizusawa's campaign surges in Virginia GOP Senate primary polls
Bert Mizusawa surges to 50%44%
Bert Mizusawa's market price surged from a low of 6% to over 50% in early March, reflecting increased campaign momentum and positive polling or endorsements during this period.
Bert Mizusawa surges in Virginia Republican Senate primary polls
Bert Mizusawa surges to 53%39%
Bert Mizusawa's campaign gained momentum with increased visibility and endorsements, causing his market price to jump from 14% to 53% within days. This surge reflected growing voter support and confidence in his candidacy.
Bert Mizusawa emerges as early frontrunner in Virginia GOP Senate primary
Initial market prices showed Bert Mizusawa at parity with other candidates, but early campaign activities and endorsements positioned him as a leading contender, reflected in his price starting at 50%.
Bert Mizusawa's market support fluctuates amid campaign developments
Bert Mizusawa plunges to 6%44%
Mizusawa's market price showed volatility, dropping to a low of 6% before recovering to above 50%, indicating changing perceptions of his campaign strength and viability.
Bert Mizusawa's campaign gains momentum with increased visibility and endorsements
Bert Mizusawa surges to 50%44%
Bert Mizusawa's campaign saw a surge in support and media attention in late February 2026, reflected in a sharp increase in market price from a low point, indicating growing confidence in his nomination chances.
Bert Mizusawa gains early momentum in Virginia GOP Senate primary
Bert Mizusawa surges to 50%44%
Bert Mizusawa's price surged from 6% to over 50% in late February and early March, indicating a strong early campaign push or favorable polling that boosted his perceived chances of winning the primary.
David Williams campaigns to Virginia GOP audience emphasizing military and intelligence experience
David Williams, a U.S. Marine Corps Reserve colonel and former CIA officer, campaigned to local Republican groups highlighting his military and intelligence background, aiming to build support in the Republican primary. This likely contributed to his initial market presence before declining support.
Republican Party of Virginia certifies candidates for August 4 Senate primary
The Republican Party of Virginia officially certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams as candidates for the August 4, 2026 Republican Senate primary ballot. Chuck Smith's ballot access was pending due to a lawsuit. This formalized the primary field and influenced market pricing for these candidates.
Former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares Joins Torridon Group
Jason Miyares drops to 3%5%
Former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares joined Torridon Law PLLC and Torridon Group LLC as a partner, signaling his focus on private practice rather than a U.S. Senate run.
Bert Mizusawa joins Torridon Law PLLC and Torridon Group LLC as Partner
Bert Mizusawa jumps to 56%14%
Former Virginia Attorney General Bert Mizusawa joined a prominent law and advisory firm, raising his profile and contributing to increased market confidence in his Senate primary prospects.
Former AG Jason Miyares Joins DC Law Firm and Focuses on Redistricting Fight
Jason Miyares dips to 5%3%
Following his reelection defeat, former Attorney General Jason Miyares shifted his focus to private practice and a redistricting advocacy group, signaling he would not enter the Senate primary.
Mizusawa unveils national‑security platform, backs Trump doctrine
Bert Mizusawa plunges to 14%36%
Bert Mizusawa released a video‑statement on his campaign website outlining his national‑security platform and endorsing former President Donald Trump’s foreign‑policy doctrine. The announcement coincided with a steep drop in his market price from 50 % to 14 % the next day, suggesting traders interpreted the statement as a shift toward a more partisan, less broadly‑appealing stance.
Mark Moran fined and suspended for wagering on Virginia Senate election
Independent candidate Mark Moran was fined and suspended by Kalshi for betting on his own election, highlighting regulatory scrutiny on election wagering and possibly affecting market perceptions of the race's integrity.
Mark Moran fined for wagering on Virginia Senate election, highlighting insider trading concerns
Mark Moran, an independent candidate, was fined and suspended for betting on his own election, drawing attention to election integrity and insider trading issues in the Virginia Senate race. This event indirectly affected Republican primary dynamics by spotlighting election betting controversies.
David Williams campaigns in Goochland, emphasizing military and America-First credentials
David Williams plunges to 31%19%
David Williams, a U.S. Marine Corps Reserve colonel, actively campaigned in Goochland County to build support among Republicans, positioning himself as a strong conservative challenger to incumbent Mark Warner. This campaign activity helped maintain his market presence despite overall low odds.
Jason Miyares declines to run for Senate, focuses on Attorney General reelection
Jason Miyares plunges to 25%25%
Jason Miyares, previously considered a potential Republican Senate candidate, declined to run and instead sought reelection as Virginia Attorney General, leading to a sharp drop in his market price from 50% to around 25%.
David Williams' polling support begins to decline in early 2026
David Williams plunges to 31%19%
Polling and market prices showed David Williams dropping from 50% to 31% in early January, indicating waning support or campaign momentum.
David Williams' campaign gains early attention in Virginia GOP Senate primary
David Williams started with strong market support at 50%, reflecting early campaign visibility and potential among Republican voters, influencing market prices accordingly.
David Williams' polling support declines significantly in early 2026
David Williams plunges to 31%19%
Polling data and market prices showed a sharp decline in David Williams' chances, reflecting lower campaign visibility and fundraising compared to other candidates.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces Senate run in Texas, challenging incumbent Cornyn
Jason Miyares plunges to 25%25%
Wesley Hunt's announcement to run for Senate marked a significant primary challenge to incumbent John Cornyn, signaling a shift in GOP dynamics and energizing the primary race. This announcement likely influenced market perceptions of candidate viability in similar Republican primaries, including Virginia.
David Williams enters Virginia Republican Senate primary race
David Williams, a U.S. Marine Corps Reserves colonel, announced his candidacy for the Republican Senate primary, adding a military veteran to the competitive field and impacting market odds.
Former delegate endorses Chuck Smith, pushing him into Senate primary spotlight
Chuck Smith surges to 32%30%
The Virginia GOP released a follow‑up poll showing a sudden surge for Chuck Smith after a surprise endorsement by a former state delegate. The market price for Smith jumped from 2 % to 32 % on December 31, marking the only major upward swing for an otherwise fringe candidate.
Bryce Reeves withdraws from U.S. Senate race citing family health issues
Bryce Reeves plunges to 3%48%
Bryce Reeves announced his withdrawal from the Senate race due to a serious family health matter, causing a sharp decline in his market price as he no longer competes in the primary.
Bryce Reeves drops out of 2026 Senate primary
Bryce Reeves dips to 0%3%
Bryce Reeves announced he was withdrawing from the Senate race due to a serious family health matter. His market price plunged from a fleeting 3 % in early December 2025 to 0 % by early April 2026.
GOP State Sen. Bryce Reeves withdraws from U.S. Senate race
Bryce Reeves plunges to 0%50%
Bryce Reeves announced his withdrawal from the U.S. Senate race due to a serious family health matter, ending his campaign and significantly reducing his market price.
State Senator Bryce Reeves Withdraws From Virginia U.S. Senate Race
Bryce Reeves plunges to 3%49%
Virginia State Senator Bryce Reeves announced his withdrawal from the U.S. Senate race, citing a serious family health matter, which immediately collapsed his market odds to zero.
Bryce Reeves withdraws from Virginia Senate race citing family health issues
Bryce Reeves plunges to 0%50%
Bryce Reeves unexpectedly withdrew from the Senate race due to a serious family health matter, causing his market price to plummet to zero and reshaping the Republican primary field.
Kim Farington's support peaks after campaign developments
Kim Farington surges to 55%37%
Kim Farington's market price surged to a high of 55% following positive campaign developments and increased visibility, reflecting growing investor confidence in his primary chances.
Virginia GOP internal poll shows Mizusawa as early favorite
Bert Mizusawa rises to 52%2%
An internal party poll released by the Virginia GOP on December 25 reported that Bert Mizusawa was the early favorite with 55 % support among party activists. The market responded with a sharp rise in Mizusawa’s price to a high of 52 % on December 27, before slipping back as the broader electorate data arrived.
Alex De Paula files for 2026 Senate primary
Alex De Paula rises to 5%4%
Alex De Paula submitted a filing to run for the Senate. The market price briefly rose to 5 % in early March 2026 before falling back to near 0 % as the race clarified around the three front‑runners.
Bryce Reeves Withdraws from US Senate Race Due to Serious Family Health Matter
Bryce Reeves dips to 0%1%
Bryce Reeves officially withdrew from the US Senate race to pursue state Senate reelection, causing his market price to drop to 0% by May 2026.
GOP certification adds Kim Farington to 2026 Senate ballot
Kim Farington jumps to 30%8%
The same certification announcement also lifted Kim Farington’s price from under 20 % to around 30 % by late May 2026, after a prolonged decline following the initial surge.
David Williams officially on 2026 Senate primary ballot
David Williams jumps to 41%10%
The certification also included David Williams, whose market price climbed modestly to a high of about 41 % in early February 2026 before sliding down to 7 % by the end of May.
Virginia GOP certifies three candidates for 2026 Senate primary
Bert Mizusawa surges to 51%37%
The Republican Party of Virginia announced that it had certified three candidates – Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington and David Williams – for the August 4, 2026 U.S. Senate primary. The certification gave the three a formal spot on the ballot and sparked a sharp rise in their market prices, especially Mizusawa, which jumped from the low‑teens to over 50 % by early March 2026.
Attorney General Jason Miyares opts for AG re‑election, skips Senate race
Jason Miyares plunges to 1%24%
Attorney General Jason Miyares announced he would not seek the Senate seat and instead run for re‑election as Attorney General. His market price fell from 25 % in early January 2026 to 1 % by late May.
Al Mina files to run in 2026 Senate primary
Al Mina drops to 1%10%
Al Mina entered the race with a petition filing. His price stayed near the 1 % level throughout the window, reflecting minimal media coverage and donor interest.
Republican candidates Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa, and David Williams declared for Virginia Senate primary
The official declaration of these candidates set the initial market expectations, with Mizusawa seen as a strong contender due to his military and political background, while Farington and Williams were also recognized as key candidates.
Virginia GOP Announces Candidates for U.S. Senate Primary
The Republican Party of Virginia officially announced candidates for the August 4 U.S. Senate primary, setting the market's initial conditions with all candidates at 50% probability.
Republican Party of Virginia Announces Candidates for U.S. Senate Primary
The party certified three candidates—Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams—for the August 4 Republican Primary, establishing the initial field.
Virginia GOP certifies three candidates for U.S. Senate primary
The Republican Party of Virginia officially certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams as candidates for the August 4 Republican primary, setting the initial ballot for the Senate race.
Kim Farington launches campaign for Virginia U.S. Senate seat
Kim Farington plunges to 28%22%
Kim Farington, a financial accountant and Republican candidate, officially launched her campaign, initially gaining market support but later seeing a decline as other candidates gained prominence.
Initial polling shows Mizusawa and Farington as leading Republican Senate primary candidates in Virginia
Early polling data released around late 2025 indicated Bert Mizusawa and Kim Farington as the frontrunners in the Virginia Republican Senate primary, setting initial market expectations and prices for these candidates.
Bert Mizusawa announces run for Virginia Republican Senate primary
Retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa declared his candidacy for the Republican Senate primary, bringing his military and government experience to the race and becoming a leading contender.
Chuck Smith files paperwork for 2026 Senate primary
Chuck Smith rises to 52%1%
Chuck Smith, a perennial candidate, filed a petition to appear on the primary ballot. His market price rose to a peak of 52 % on Feb 28, 2026 before collapsing to around 2 % by late April as higher‑profile candidates dominated the field.
Kim Farington announces candidacy for Virginia Republican Senate primary
Kim Farington, a financial accountant, officially declared his candidacy for the Republican Senate primary in Virginia, initiating his campaign and gaining initial market attention.
Republican candidates Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa, and David Williams declared for Virginia Senate primary
The official declaration of these three candidates set the stage for the Republican primary contest, influencing initial market prices with Mizusawa and Farington starting at 50%.
Initial polling shows Bert Mizusawa and Kim Farington leading Virginia GOP Senate primary
Early polling data released around this date indicated Bert Mizusawa and Kim Farington as the leading candidates in the Republican primary, influencing market prices to start with Mizusawa and Farington at 50%.
Republican candidates including Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams declared for Virginia Senate primary
The official entry of key Republican candidates into the Virginia Senate primary set the stage for the competitive race, initially reflected in equal market prices around 50% for major candidates.
Republican candidates Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa, and David Williams declare for Virginia Senate primary
The official declaration of candidacies by Farington, Mizusawa, and Williams set the stage for the Republican primary, establishing the main contenders and initiating market interest and price movements.
Republican Party of Virginia certifies candidates for U.S. Senate primary
The Republican Party of Virginia officially certified Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams as candidates for the August 4 Republican Primary, confirming the main contenders and impacting market prices accordingly.
Initial polling shows competitive Virginia GOP Senate primary field
Early polling data indicated a competitive Republican primary with Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farington, and David Williams as leading candidates, setting initial market prices around 50% for each. This established the baseline for market expectations.
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