The 2027 Mexican legislative election for the Chamber of Deputies remains more than a year away, yet trader odds reflect a tight contest for second place among several smaller parties behind the expected Morena-led coalition finish. PT leads narrowly at 49 percent implied probability, followed closely by MC at 44.5 percent and PRI, PAN, and PVEM clustered near 41 percent, while Morena sits at just 2.3 percent. This positioning stems from the ruling coalition’s dominant structural position after 2024, tempered by the March 2026 defeat of President Sheinbaum’s electoral reform bill, which fractured support even from PT and PVEM partners concerned about seat losses and reduced public funding. Opposition parties including PAN, PRI, and MC continue early organizational efforts to consolidate anti-incumbent votes, while internal coalition frictions and the absence of major new polling shifts keep the second-place outcome highly competitive and sensitive to future alliance adjustments or candidate selection rules.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMexico Legislative Election: 2nd Place?
Mexico Legislative Election: 2nd Place?
PVEM 81%
PRI 49%
MC 44%
PT 43%
NEW
NEW
Jun 6, 2027
PAN
-
PRI
49%
PT
43%
PVEM
81%
MC
44%
Morena
2%
PVEM 81%
PRI 49%
MC 44%
PT 43%
NEW
NEW
Jun 6, 2027
PAN
$96 Vol.
-
PRI
$1 Vol.
49%
PT
$1 Vol.
43%
PVEM
$1 Vol.
81%
MC
$1 Vol.
44%
Morena
$146 Vol.
2%
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).The 2027 Mexican legislative election for the Chamber of Deputies remains more than a year away, yet trader odds reflect a tight contest for second place among several smaller parties behind the expected Morena-led coalition finish. PT leads narrowly at 49 percent implied probability, followed closely by MC at 44.5 percent and PRI, PAN, and PVEM clustered near 41 percent, while Morena sits at just 2.3 percent. This positioning stems from the ruling coalition’s dominant structural position after 2024, tempered by the March 2026 defeat of President Sheinbaum’s electoral reform bill, which fractured support even from PT and PVEM partners concerned about seat losses and reduced public funding. Opposition parties including PAN, PRI, and MC continue early organizational efforts to consolidate anti-incumbent votes, while internal coalition frictions and the absence of major new polling shifts keep the second-place outcome highly competitive and sensitive to future alliance adjustments or candidate selection rules.
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ET
Volume
$246End Date
Jun 6, 2027Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).The 2027 Mexican legislative election for the Chamber of Deputies remains more than a year away, yet trader odds reflect a tight contest for second place among several smaller parties behind the expected Morena-led coalition finish. PT leads narrowly at 49 percent implied probability, followed closely by MC at 44.5 percent and PRI, PAN, and PVEM clustered near 41 percent, while Morena sits at just 2.3 percent. This positioning stems from the ruling coalition’s dominant structural position after 2024, tempered by the March 2026 defeat of President Sheinbaum’s electoral reform bill, which fractured support even from PT and PVEM partners concerned about seat losses and reduced public funding. Opposition parties including PAN, PRI, and MC continue early organizational efforts to consolidate anti-incumbent votes, while internal coalition frictions and the absence of major new polling shifts keep the second-place outcome highly competitive and sensitive to future alliance adjustments or candidate selection rules.
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Volume
$246End Date
Jun 6, 2027Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2027 Mexican legislative election for the Chamber of Deputies remains more than a year away, yet trader odds reflect a tight contest for second place among several smaller parties behind the expected Morena-led coalition finish. PT leads narrowly at 49 percent implied probability, followed closely by MC at 44.5 percent and PRI, PAN, and PVEM clustered near 41 percent, while Morena sits at just 2.3 percent. This positioning stems from the ruling coalition’s dominant structural position after 2024, tempered by the March 2026 defeat of President Sheinbaum’s electoral reform bill, which fractured support even from PT and PVEM partners concerned about seat losses and reduced public funding. Opposition parties including PAN, PRI, and MC continue early organizational efforts to consolidate anti-incumbent votes, while internal coalition frictions and the absence of major new polling shifts keep the second-place outcome highly competitive and sensitive to future alliance adjustments or candidate selection rules.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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