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Politics·Coalition

Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?

icon for Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?
Politics·Coalition

Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?

36% chance
Polymarket
NEW
36% chance
Polymarket
NEW
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls from May 2026 show the Tidö bloc—Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats—projected at 43–46 percent support, translating to roughly 152–160 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag, short of the 175-seat majority threshold. The Social Democrats lead individual party support at 32–34 percent, with the broader centre-left and green parties holding a consistent 52–55 percent aggregate edge across SCB, Ipsos, Demoskop, and Indikator surveys. This sustained opposition advantage in national trends, stable since late 2025, underpins trader expectations that the incumbent coalition will fall short in September 2026 voting. No major policy shifts or events have altered these bloc dynamics in recent weeks.

In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$19
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls from May 2026 show the Tidö bloc—Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats—projected at 43–46 percent support, translating to roughly 152–160 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag, short of the 175-seat majority threshold. The Social Democrats lead individual party support at 32–34 percent, with the broader centre-left and green parties holding a consistent 52–55 percent aggregate edge across SCB, Ipsos, Demoskop, and Indikator surveys. This sustained opposition advantage in national trends, stable since late 2025, underpins trader expectations that the incumbent coalition will fall short in September 2026 voting. No major policy shifts or events have altered these bloc dynamics in recent weeks.

In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$19
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 36% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 36¢, the market collectively assigns a 36% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?" is 36% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 36% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.