Trader consensus implies near-certainty that Giorgia Meloni will remain Italy's Prime Minister through June 30, driven by her centre-right coalition's commanding parliamentary majority in both chambers, ensuring no viable no-confidence vote or snap election threat. A March 23 referendum defeat on judicial reforms—her first major setback since 2022—prompted vows to press on without resignation or early polls, amid global instability from Middle East energy shocks like Strait of Hormuz tensions. Recent actions, including suspending Italy's decades-old defense agreement with Israel and activating crisis units over a flotilla seizure off Crete, underscore active leadership. Barring unforeseen coalition fractures, scandals, or health events, her position holds firm until the 2027 parliamentary term end.