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Politics·PM

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Italy?
Politics·PM

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Giorgia Meloni 48%

Elly Schlein 12%

Roberto Vannacci 11.6%

Giuseppe Conte 10%

Polymarket
NEW

Giorgia Meloni 48%

Elly Schlein 12%

Roberto Vannacci 11.6%

Giuseppe Conte 10%

Polymarket
NEW

Giorgia Meloni

$3,077 Vol.

48%

Elly Schlein

$397 Vol.

12%

Giuseppe Conte

$460 Vol.

10%

Antonio Tajani

$230 Vol.

3%

Matteo Salvini

$306 Vol.

3%

Guido Crosetto

$313 Vol.

4%

Mario Draghi

$266 Vol.

6%

Silvia Salis

$651 Vol.

9%

Roberto Vannacci

$1,100 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Giorgia Meloni leads trader consensus at 48% as incumbent prime minister, reflecting her Brothers of Italy-led coalition's relative stability despite mounting challenges. The March 2026 constitutional referendum defeat on judicial reforms, rejected 54%-46% by voters, marked a rare setback, eroding her invincibility and sparking cabinet resignations and political reset efforts. Recent suspension of Italy's military cooperation memorandum with Israel on April 14 amid Middle East tensions, alongside rising energy costs denting economic approval, has fueled speculation on snap elections before the 2027 general vote deadline. Opposition figures like Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein (12%), far-right Roberto Vannacci (11.2%), and progressive Genoa Mayor Silvia Salis (8.9%) gain traction as potential challengers in a fragmented field.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,801
End Date
Dec 31, 2028
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Giorgia Meloni leads trader consensus at 48% as incumbent prime minister, reflecting her Brothers of Italy-led coalition's relative stability despite mounting challenges. The March 2026 constitutional referendum defeat on judicial reforms, rejected 54%-46% by voters, marked a rare setback, eroding her invincibility and sparking cabinet resignations and political reset efforts. Recent suspension of Italy's military cooperation memorandum with Israel on April 14 amid Middle East tensions, alongside rising energy costs denting economic approval, has fueled speculation on snap elections before the 2027 general vote deadline. Opposition figures like Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein (12%), far-right Roberto Vannacci (11.2%), and progressive Genoa Mayor Silvia Salis (8.9%) gain traction as potential challengers in a fragmented field.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,801
End Date
Dec 31, 2028
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Giorgia Meloni" at 48%, followed by "Elly Schlein" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Italy?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is "Giorgia Meloni" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Elly Schlein" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.