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Politics·PM

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Italy?
Politics·PM

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Giorgia Meloni 53%

Elly Schlein 13%

Roberto Vannacci 10.5%

Giuseppe Conte 8%

Polymarket

$28,327 Vol.

Giorgia Meloni 53%

Elly Schlein 13%

Roberto Vannacci 10.5%

Giuseppe Conte 8%

Polymarket

$28,327 Vol.

Giorgia Meloni

$5,627 Vol.

53%

Elly Schlein

$1,651 Vol.

13%

Giuseppe Conte

$1,738 Vol.

8%

Antonio Tajani

$1,347 Vol.

2%

Matteo Salvini

$1,630 Vol.

1%

Guido Crosetto

$1,082 Vol.

1%

Mario Draghi

$1,004 Vol.

3%

Silvia Salis

$4,210 Vol.

7%

Roberto Vannacci

$6,246 Vol.

11%

Matteo Renzi

$1,187 Vol.

2%

Angelo Bonelli

$1,213 Vol.

<1%

Carlo Calenda

$1,393 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Giorgia Meloni holds the leading position in the next prime minister market as incumbent head of a center-right coalition whose largest party, Fratelli d’Italia, tops recent national voting-intention polls near 28 percent. Her government continues to manage day-to-day legislative and foreign-policy business ahead of the scheduled 2027 general election, providing a structural edge reflected in trader pricing. A March 2026 constitutional referendum defeat on judicial reform dented momentum and boosted opposition visibility, yet no immediate coalition fracture or snap-election trigger has materialized. Center-left leader Elly Schlein’s Partito Democratico trails at roughly 22 percent, while smaller parties and figures such as Roberto Vannacci or Giuseppe Conte register lower single-digit support, underscoring the fragmented opposition and the time still available for shifts before voters decide.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,327
End Date
Dec 31, 2028
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Giorgia Meloni holds the leading position in the next prime minister market as incumbent head of a center-right coalition whose largest party, Fratelli d’Italia, tops recent national voting-intention polls near 28 percent. Her government continues to manage day-to-day legislative and foreign-policy business ahead of the scheduled 2027 general election, providing a structural edge reflected in trader pricing. A March 2026 constitutional referendum defeat on judicial reform dented momentum and boosted opposition visibility, yet no immediate coalition fracture or snap-election trigger has materialized. Center-left leader Elly Schlein’s Partito Democratico trails at roughly 22 percent, while smaller parties and figures such as Roberto Vannacci or Giuseppe Conte register lower single-digit support, underscoring the fragmented opposition and the time still available for shifts before voters decide.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,327
End Date
Dec 31, 2028
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Giorgia Meloni" at 53%, followed by "Elly Schlein" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" has generated $28.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Italy?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is "Giorgia Meloni" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Elly Schlein" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.