Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service ensemble forecasts, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering overnight lows around 48-53°F at Central Park (KNYC) on May 4 amid post-frontal clearing after recent rain chances through May 2-3. The closely matched 21% implied probabilities for 48-49°F, 50-51°F, and 52-53°F stem from variability in predicted cloud cover and light winds overnight May 3-4, which modulate radiational cooling potential— fuller skies favor upper-50s, while radiative minima under clear conditions push toward mid-40s. Slightly below the early-May climatological low of 51°F due to lingering cool upper trough, new 00Z/12Z model runs on May 3 could sharpen differentiation ahead of resolution based on official observed minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 4?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 4?
50-51°F 41%
52-53°F 29%
48-49°F 23%
46-47°F 7%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
43°F or below
3%
44-45°F
5%
46-47°F
7%
48-49°F
23%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
29%
54-55°F
7%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
3%
62°F or higher
1%
50-51°F 41%
52-53°F 29%
48-49°F 23%
46-47°F 7%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
43°F or below
$240 Vol.
3%
44-45°F
$90 Vol.
5%
46-47°F
$58 Vol.
7%
48-49°F
$0 Vol.
23%
50-51°F
$15 Vol.
39%
52-53°F
$10 Vol.
29%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
7%
56-57°F
$5 Vol.
5%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
4%
60-61°F
$10 Vol.
3%
62°F or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service ensemble forecasts, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering overnight lows around 48-53°F at Central Park (KNYC) on May 4 amid post-frontal clearing after recent rain chances through May 2-3. The closely matched 21% implied probabilities for 48-49°F, 50-51°F, and 52-53°F stem from variability in predicted cloud cover and light winds overnight May 3-4, which modulate radiational cooling potential— fuller skies favor upper-50s, while radiative minima under clear conditions push toward mid-40s. Slightly below the early-May climatological low of 51°F due to lingering cool upper trough, new 00Z/12Z model runs on May 3 could sharpen differentiation ahead of resolution based on official observed minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$438End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service ensemble forecasts, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering overnight lows around 48-53°F at Central Park (KNYC) on May 4 amid post-frontal clearing after recent rain chances through May 2-3. The closely matched 21% implied probabilities for 48-49°F, 50-51°F, and 52-53°F stem from variability in predicted cloud cover and light winds overnight May 3-4, which modulate radiational cooling potential— fuller skies favor upper-50s, while radiative minima under clear conditions push toward mid-40s. Slightly below the early-May climatological low of 51°F due to lingering cool upper trough, new 00Z/12Z model runs on May 3 could sharpen differentiation ahead of resolution based on official observed minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$438End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service ensemble forecasts, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering overnight lows around 48-53°F at Central Park (KNYC) on May 4 amid post-frontal clearing after recent rain chances through May 2-3. The closely matched 21% implied probabilities for 48-49°F, 50-51°F, and 52-53°F stem from variability in predicted cloud cover and light winds overnight May 3-4, which modulate radiational cooling potential— fuller skies favor upper-50s, while radiative minima under clear conditions push toward mid-40s. Slightly below the early-May climatological low of 51°F due to lingering cool upper trough, new 00Z/12Z model runs on May 3 could sharpen differentiation ahead of resolution based on official observed minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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