Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate a Central Park low temperature on May 3 likely in the mid-40s to low 50s, fueling the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities across 44-54°F outcomes amid model spread of 5-10°F. April's series of cold fronts brought repeated cool air surges to the Northeast, sustaining below-average temperatures into early May and amplifying forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover persistence and light overnight winds that could limit radiational cooling. Historical May 3 lows average near 51°F, but recent volatility aligns with NOAA Climate Prediction Center's near-normal outlook under emerging El Niño patterns. Key watch: 00Z model runs and NWS forecast discussions tonight for potential sharpening.