Latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts project an overnight low of 8-9°C for London Heathrow on May 4, aligning with the market's leading 9°C outcome at 39.5% implied probability, as persistent overcast skies and light rain showers (30-40% chance) limit radiative cooling under light winds. This trader consensus reflects ensemble model outputs from ECMWF and GFS, showing a cool turn after warmer early May conditions, with daytime highs dropping to 17-18°C amid unsettled Atlantic patterns. Historical early May lows average 8°C, but urban heat island effects in central London could nudge minima slightly higher. New forecast updates expected daily from the Met Office may refine probabilities as the resolution date nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 4?
Lowest temperature in London on May 4?
11°C 32%
10°C 19%
12°C 19%
9°C 17%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
5°C or below
1%
6°C
3%
7°C
12%
8°C
16%
9°C
17%
10°C
19%
11°C
32%
12°C
19%
13°C
13%
14°C
6%
15°C or higher
5%
11°C 32%
10°C 19%
12°C 19%
9°C 17%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
5°C or below
$32 Vol.
1%
6°C
$28 Vol.
3%
7°C
$1 Vol.
12%
8°C
$0 Vol.
16%
9°C
$10 Vol.
17%
10°C
$0 Vol.
19%
11°C
$0 Vol.
32%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
13%
14°C
$0 Vol.
6%
15°C or higher
$154 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts project an overnight low of 8-9°C for London Heathrow on May 4, aligning with the market's leading 9°C outcome at 39.5% implied probability, as persistent overcast skies and light rain showers (30-40% chance) limit radiative cooling under light winds. This trader consensus reflects ensemble model outputs from ECMWF and GFS, showing a cool turn after warmer early May conditions, with daytime highs dropping to 17-18°C amid unsettled Atlantic patterns. Historical early May lows average 8°C, but urban heat island effects in central London could nudge minima slightly higher. New forecast updates expected daily from the Met Office may refine probabilities as the resolution date nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$137End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts project an overnight low of 8-9°C for London Heathrow on May 4, aligning with the market's leading 9°C outcome at 39.5% implied probability, as persistent overcast skies and light rain showers (30-40% chance) limit radiative cooling under light winds. This trader consensus reflects ensemble model outputs from ECMWF and GFS, showing a cool turn after warmer early May conditions, with daytime highs dropping to 17-18°C amid unsettled Atlantic patterns. Historical early May lows average 8°C, but urban heat island effects in central London could nudge minima slightly higher. New forecast updates expected daily from the Met Office may refine probabilities as the resolution date nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$137End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts project an overnight low of 8-9°C for London Heathrow on May 4, aligning with the market's leading 9°C outcome at 39.5% implied probability, as persistent overcast skies and light rain showers (30-40% chance) limit radiative cooling under light winds. This trader consensus reflects ensemble model outputs from ECMWF and GFS, showing a cool turn after warmer early May conditions, with daytime highs dropping to 17-18°C amid unsettled Atlantic patterns. Historical early May lows average 8°C, but urban heat island effects in central London could nudge minima slightly higher. New forecast updates expected daily from the Met Office may refine probabilities as the resolution date nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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