Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) model output statistics and ECMWF/GFS ensembles project Munich Airport highs of 22–25°C on May 4 under a lingering high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering clear skies, light southerly winds, and radiative heating well above the early-May climatological average of 17–18°C. The tightly clustered trader-implied probabilities around 22–25°C stem from modest ensemble spread, with ECMWF control runs favoring 24–25°C via stronger subsidence while GFS hints at 22°C if afternoon cumulus clouds develop. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing efficiency and exact ridge positioning; genuine uncertainty persists at 48 hours out. Watch for 12Z model updates and hourly DWD observations resolving the market at the EDDM station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on May 4?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 4?
23°C 32%
24°C 28%
22°C 21%
25°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
10%
22°C
21%
23°C
32%
24°C
28%
25°C
14%
26°C or higher
10%
23°C 32%
24°C 28%
22°C 21%
25°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
16°C or below
$43 Vol.
1%
17°C
$42 Vol.
1%
18°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$89 Vol.
2%
20°C
$99 Vol.
3%
21°C
$65 Vol.
10%
22°C
$113 Vol.
21%
23°C
$115 Vol.
32%
24°C
$35 Vol.
28%
25°C
$47 Vol.
14%
26°C or higher
$139 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) model output statistics and ECMWF/GFS ensembles project Munich Airport highs of 22–25°C on May 4 under a lingering high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering clear skies, light southerly winds, and radiative heating well above the early-May climatological average of 17–18°C. The tightly clustered trader-implied probabilities around 22–25°C stem from modest ensemble spread, with ECMWF control runs favoring 24–25°C via stronger subsidence while GFS hints at 22°C if afternoon cumulus clouds develop. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing efficiency and exact ridge positioning; genuine uncertainty persists at 48 hours out. Watch for 12Z model updates and hourly DWD observations resolving the market at the EDDM station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volume
$829End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) model output statistics and ECMWF/GFS ensembles project Munich Airport highs of 22–25°C on May 4 under a lingering high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering clear skies, light southerly winds, and radiative heating well above the early-May climatological average of 17–18°C. The tightly clustered trader-implied probabilities around 22–25°C stem from modest ensemble spread, with ECMWF control runs favoring 24–25°C via stronger subsidence while GFS hints at 22°C if afternoon cumulus clouds develop. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing efficiency and exact ridge positioning; genuine uncertainty persists at 48 hours out. Watch for 12Z model updates and hourly DWD observations resolving the market at the EDDM station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$829End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) model output statistics and ECMWF/GFS ensembles project Munich Airport highs of 22–25°C on May 4 under a lingering high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering clear skies, light southerly winds, and radiative heating well above the early-May climatological average of 17–18°C. The tightly clustered trader-implied probabilities around 22–25°C stem from modest ensemble spread, with ECMWF control runs favoring 24–25°C via stronger subsidence while GFS hints at 22°C if afternoon cumulus clouds develop. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing efficiency and exact ridge positioning; genuine uncertainty persists at 48 hours out. Watch for 12Z model updates and hourly DWD observations resolving the market at the EDDM station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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