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Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?

icon for Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?

Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?

May 1

May 2

May 3

May 4

May 1

May 2

May 3

May 4

68°F or higher 99.2%

50-51°F <1%

54-55°F <1%

56-57°F <1%

Polymarket
NEW

$14,981 Vol.

68°F or higher 99.2%

50-51°F <1%

54-55°F <1%

56-57°F <1%

Polymarket
NEW

$14,981 Vol.

49°F or below

$871 Vol.

1%

50-51°F

$816 Vol.

1%

52-53°F

$999 Vol.

<1%

54-55°F

$999 Vol.

1%

56-57°F

$999 Vol.

1%

58-59°F

$999 Vol.

1%

60-61°F

$999 Vol.

<1%

62-63°F

$999 Vol.

<1%

64-65°F

$999 Vol.

<1%

66-67°F

$1,221 Vol.

1%

68°F or higher

$5,081 Vol.

99%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and major models like GFS and ECMWF show a strong consensus for Houston's highest temperature on May 4 exceeding 68°F, with projected highs near 82°F under a ridge of high pressure bringing sunny skies and light winds. Recent heavy thunderstorms and a Flood Watch through May 2 have suppressed temperatures amid cloudy, rainy conditions, but the departing low-pressure system will allow ample solar heating and subsidence aloft starting Sunday. This positioning aligns with May climatology, where normal highs at Houston's Intercontinental Airport average 83°F, far above the threshold. Realistic challenges include a stalled front prolonging clouds or an unforeseen cool air surge, though model ensembles assign low probability; watch NWS updates twice daily for refinements ahead of resolution based on official observations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,981
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and major models like GFS and ECMWF show a strong consensus for Houston's highest temperature on May 4 exceeding 68°F, with projected highs near 82°F under a ridge of high pressure bringing sunny skies and light winds. Recent heavy thunderstorms and a Flood Watch through May 2 have suppressed temperatures amid cloudy, rainy conditions, but the departing low-pressure system will allow ample solar heating and subsidence aloft starting Sunday. This positioning aligns with May climatology, where normal highs at Houston's Intercontinental Airport average 83°F, far above the threshold. Realistic challenges include a stalled front prolonging clouds or an unforeseen cool air surge, though model ensembles assign low probability; watch NWS updates twice daily for refinements ahead of resolution based on official observations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,981
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "68°F or higher" at 99%, followed by "66-67°F" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?" has generated $15K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?" is "68°F or higher" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "66-67°F" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.