Skip to main content
icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 4?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 4?

icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 4?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 4?

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

May 3

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

May 3

26°C or higher 55%

25°C 25%

24°C 6%

23°C 3.6%

Polymarket
NEW

26°C or higher 55%

25°C 25%

24°C 6%

23°C 3.6%

Polymarket
NEW

16°C or below

$552 Vol.

<1%

17°C

$4,986 Vol.

<1%

18°C

$312 Vol.

1%

19°C

$0 Vol.

1%

20°C

$115 Vol.

1%

21°C

$15 Vol.

1%

22°C

$226 Vol.

1%

23°C

$230 Vol.

4%

24°C

$11 Vol.

6%

25°C

$5 Vol.

25%

26°C or higher

$109 Vol.

55%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast, updated May 2, projects a maximum temperature of 26°C on May 4, fueling trader consensus with 53% implied probability for 26°C or higher amid mainly cloudy skies, morning showers, and north-northeast winds force 4-5. A trough of low pressure over central China is evolving into a cold front, ushering cooler northeast monsoon air that tempers highs after today's 29°C and tomorrow's similar peak, while high humidity (65-90%) and scattered precipitation limit solar heating. This positions 25°C at 25% as traders weigh potential overcast suppression against brief bright periods; next forecast update at 16:30 HKT could refine model consensus on frontal timing and cloud cover variability.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,461
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast, updated May 2, projects a maximum temperature of 26°C on May 4, fueling trader consensus with 53% implied probability for 26°C or higher amid mainly cloudy skies, morning showers, and north-northeast winds force 4-5. A trough of low pressure over central China is evolving into a cold front, ushering cooler northeast monsoon air that tempers highs after today's 29°C and tomorrow's similar peak, while high humidity (65-90%) and scattered precipitation limit solar heating. This positions 25°C at 25% as traders weigh potential overcast suppression against brief bright periods; next forecast update at 16:30 HKT could refine model consensus on frontal timing and cloud cover variability.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,461
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "26°C or higher" at 55%, followed by "25°C" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 4?" is "26°C or higher" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "25°C" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.