Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts for Taipei's highest temperature on May 4, with official models projecting a 23–30°C range amid a transitioning weather pattern from recent cloudy, milder conditions (around 25°C highs earlier this week) toward clearer skies under a high-pressure ridge. The even split across 21–25°C outcomes stems from divergent ensemble model runs: persistent low-level clouds or sea breezes could cap peaks at the lower end near 21–23°C, while stronger solar heating and lighter winds favor 24–25°C; historical early-May averages hover near 28°C, but current cool air advection introduces downside risk. Watch CWA's daily updates tomorrow for refined guidance on cloud cover and afternoon showers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on May 4?
Highest temperature in Taipei on May 4?
24°C 26%
22°C 22%
23°C 22%
25°C 21%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
4%
21°C
17%
22°C
22%
23°C
22%
24°C
26%
25°C
21%
26°C
4%
27°C or higher
10%
24°C 26%
22°C 22%
23°C 22%
25°C 21%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
17°C or below
$10 Vol.
1%
18°C
$10 Vol.
1%
19°C
$45 Vol.
2%
20°C
$230 Vol.
4%
21°C
$5 Vol.
17%
22°C
$0 Vol.
22%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$1 Vol.
26%
25°C
$0 Vol.
21%
26°C
$0 Vol.
4%
27°C or higher
$12 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts for Taipei's highest temperature on May 4, with official models projecting a 23–30°C range amid a transitioning weather pattern from recent cloudy, milder conditions (around 25°C highs earlier this week) toward clearer skies under a high-pressure ridge. The even split across 21–25°C outcomes stems from divergent ensemble model runs: persistent low-level clouds or sea breezes could cap peaks at the lower end near 21–23°C, while stronger solar heating and lighter winds favor 24–25°C; historical early-May averages hover near 28°C, but current cool air advection introduces downside risk. Watch CWA's daily updates tomorrow for refined guidance on cloud cover and afternoon showers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$314End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts for Taipei's highest temperature on May 4, with official models projecting a 23–30°C range amid a transitioning weather pattern from recent cloudy, milder conditions (around 25°C highs earlier this week) toward clearer skies under a high-pressure ridge. The even split across 21–25°C outcomes stems from divergent ensemble model runs: persistent low-level clouds or sea breezes could cap peaks at the lower end near 21–23°C, while stronger solar heating and lighter winds favor 24–25°C; historical early-May averages hover near 28°C, but current cool air advection introduces downside risk. Watch CWA's daily updates tomorrow for refined guidance on cloud cover and afternoon showers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$314End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts for Taipei's highest temperature on May 4, with official models projecting a 23–30°C range amid a transitioning weather pattern from recent cloudy, milder conditions (around 25°C highs earlier this week) toward clearer skies under a high-pressure ridge. The even split across 21–25°C outcomes stems from divergent ensemble model runs: persistent low-level clouds or sea breezes could cap peaks at the lower end near 21–23°C, while stronger solar heating and lighter winds favor 24–25°C; historical early-May averages hover near 28°C, but current cool air advection introduces downside risk. Watch CWA's daily updates tomorrow for refined guidance on cloud cover and afternoon showers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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