Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits probabilities across 64-69°F outcomes at 35.5% each, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting a high near 66-68°F for downtown Los Angeles on May 4 amid persistent coastal marine layer. This low marine inversion layer, fueled by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures and moderate onshore flow (5-10 mph), traps stratus clouds through midday, capping solar heating and keeping highs below seasonal averages of 72-74°F seen in historical May 4 data. Differentiating factors include burn-off timing—delayed clearing under stronger winds favors 64-65°F, while earlier dissipation in lighter flow pushes toward 68-69°F—highlighting short-range uncertainty ahead of evening forecast updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on May 4?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 4?
64-65°F 24%
66-67°F 22%
62-63°F 21%
68-69°F 15%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
4%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
4%
62-63°F
21%
64-65°F
24%
66-67°F
22%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
5%
72°F or higher
1%
64-65°F 24%
66-67°F 22%
62-63°F 21%
68-69°F 15%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
53°F or below
$205 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$5 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$10 Vol.
4%
58-59°F
$10 Vol.
4%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
4%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
21%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
24%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
22%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
15%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
5%
72°F or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits probabilities across 64-69°F outcomes at 35.5% each, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting a high near 66-68°F for downtown Los Angeles on May 4 amid persistent coastal marine layer. This low marine inversion layer, fueled by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures and moderate onshore flow (5-10 mph), traps stratus clouds through midday, capping solar heating and keeping highs below seasonal averages of 72-74°F seen in historical May 4 data. Differentiating factors include burn-off timing—delayed clearing under stronger winds favors 64-65°F, while earlier dissipation in lighter flow pushes toward 68-69°F—highlighting short-range uncertainty ahead of evening forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$242End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits probabilities across 64-69°F outcomes at 35.5% each, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting a high near 66-68°F for downtown Los Angeles on May 4 amid persistent coastal marine layer. This low marine inversion layer, fueled by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures and moderate onshore flow (5-10 mph), traps stratus clouds through midday, capping solar heating and keeping highs below seasonal averages of 72-74°F seen in historical May 4 data. Differentiating factors include burn-off timing—delayed clearing under stronger winds favors 64-65°F, while earlier dissipation in lighter flow pushes toward 68-69°F—highlighting short-range uncertainty ahead of evening forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$242End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits probabilities across 64-69°F outcomes at 35.5% each, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting a high near 66-68°F for downtown Los Angeles on May 4 amid persistent coastal marine layer. This low marine inversion layer, fueled by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures and moderate onshore flow (5-10 mph), traps stratus clouds through midday, capping solar heating and keeping highs below seasonal averages of 72-74°F seen in historical May 4 data. Differentiating factors include burn-off timing—delayed clearing under stronger winds favors 64-65°F, while earlier dissipation in lighter flow pushes toward 68-69°F—highlighting short-range uncertainty ahead of evening forecast updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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