Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the "53°F or below" outcome for Seattle's highest temperature on May 8 at a mere 3.5% implied probability, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts showing a high near 64°F under mostly cloudy skies with light onshore flow. This positioning stems from seasonal climatology—May highs in Seattle average 63–69°F per NOAA records, rarely dipping below 55°F—coupled with a persistent upper-level ridge maintaining above-normal temperatures despite recent marine stratus moderating the warm spell that shattered early May records. Model ensembles indicate low risk of extreme cooling, though variability in Puget Sound stratus could trim highs slightly; watch NWS evening updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on May 8?
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 8?
62-63°F 37%
64-65°F 34%
66-67°F 14.4%
60-61°F 13%
NEW
NEW
May 8, 2026
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
5%
60-61°F
13%
62-63°F
37%
64-65°F
34%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
5%
70-71°F
2%
72°F or higher
1%
62-63°F 37%
64-65°F 34%
66-67°F 14.4%
60-61°F 13%
NEW
NEW
May 8, 2026
53°F or below
$230 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$17 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$14 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$35 Vol.
5%
60-61°F
$262 Vol.
13%
62-63°F
$86 Vol.
37%
64-65°F
$66 Vol.
34%
66-67°F
$48 Vol.
14%
68-69°F
$96 Vol.
5%
70-71°F
$18 Vol.
2%
72°F or higher
$247 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the "53°F or below" outcome for Seattle's highest temperature on May 8 at a mere 3.5% implied probability, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts showing a high near 64°F under mostly cloudy skies with light onshore flow. This positioning stems from seasonal climatology—May highs in Seattle average 63–69°F per NOAA records, rarely dipping below 55°F—coupled with a persistent upper-level ridge maintaining above-normal temperatures despite recent marine stratus moderating the warm spell that shattered early May records. Model ensembles indicate low risk of extreme cooling, though variability in Puget Sound stratus could trim highs slightly; watch NWS evening updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 6, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Volume
$1,118End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:20 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the "53°F or below" outcome for Seattle's highest temperature on May 8 at a mere 3.5% implied probability, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts showing a high near 64°F under mostly cloudy skies with light onshore flow. This positioning stems from seasonal climatology—May highs in Seattle average 63–69°F per NOAA records, rarely dipping below 55°F—coupled with a persistent upper-level ridge maintaining above-normal temperatures despite recent marine stratus moderating the warm spell that shattered early May records. Model ensembles indicate low risk of extreme cooling, though variability in Puget Sound stratus could trim highs slightly; watch NWS evening updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,118End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:20 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the "53°F or below" outcome for Seattle's highest temperature on May 8 at a mere 3.5% implied probability, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts showing a high near 64°F under mostly cloudy skies with light onshore flow. This positioning stems from seasonal climatology—May highs in Seattle average 63–69°F per NOAA records, rarely dipping below 55°F—coupled with a persistent upper-level ridge maintaining above-normal temperatures despite recent marine stratus moderating the warm spell that shattered early May records. Model ensembles indicate low risk of extreme cooling, though variability in Puget Sound stratus could trim highs slightly; watch NWS evening updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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