Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts project Munich's highest temperature on May 7 around 15-19°C, reflected in the market's tight clustering of implied probabilities near 17°C, with ensemble spreads capturing model disagreements on cloud cover and boundary layer mixing. Current upper-air patterns feature a weakening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, allowing cooler northerly flow and potential stratocumulus decks to suppress highs below climatological May 7 norms of 16-18°C, while lingering warm advection could push toward 19°C. GFS runs show similar uncertainty, with new 12-hour updates expected to refine land surface model outputs before the event resolves via official Munich Airport observations. Trader sentiment weighs this forecast divergence against historical spring variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on May 7?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 7?
15°C 39.1%
16°C 31%
17°C 11%
14°C 7.5%
NEW
$20,570 Vol.
NEW
$20,570 Vol.
May 7, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
8%
15°C
39%
16°C
31%
17°C
11%
18°C
3%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
15°C 39.1%
16°C 31%
17°C 11%
14°C 7.5%
NEW
$20,570 Vol.
NEW
$20,570 Vol.
May 7, 2026
12°C or below
$1,081 Vol.
1%
13°C
$1,139 Vol.
1%
14°C
$1,931 Vol.
8%
15°C
$1,723 Vol.
39%
16°C
$2,504 Vol.
31%
17°C
$1,969 Vol.
11%
18°C
$3,050 Vol.
3%
19°C
$3,081 Vol.
1%
20°C
$1,743 Vol.
1%
21°C
$931 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$1,874 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts project Munich's highest temperature on May 7 around 15-19°C, reflected in the market's tight clustering of implied probabilities near 17°C, with ensemble spreads capturing model disagreements on cloud cover and boundary layer mixing. Current upper-air patterns feature a weakening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, allowing cooler northerly flow and potential stratocumulus decks to suppress highs below climatological May 7 norms of 16-18°C, while lingering warm advection could push toward 19°C. GFS runs show similar uncertainty, with new 12-hour updates expected to refine land surface model outputs before the event resolves via official Munich Airport observations. Trader sentiment weighs this forecast divergence against historical spring variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Volume
$20,570End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts project Munich's highest temperature on May 7 around 15-19°C, reflected in the market's tight clustering of implied probabilities near 17°C, with ensemble spreads capturing model disagreements on cloud cover and boundary layer mixing. Current upper-air patterns feature a weakening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, allowing cooler northerly flow and potential stratocumulus decks to suppress highs below climatological May 7 norms of 16-18°C, while lingering warm advection could push toward 19°C. GFS runs show similar uncertainty, with new 12-hour updates expected to refine land surface model outputs before the event resolves via official Munich Airport observations. Trader sentiment weighs this forecast divergence against historical spring variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,570End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts project Munich's highest temperature on May 7 around 15-19°C, reflected in the market's tight clustering of implied probabilities near 17°C, with ensemble spreads capturing model disagreements on cloud cover and boundary layer mixing. Current upper-air patterns feature a weakening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, allowing cooler northerly flow and potential stratocumulus decks to suppress highs below climatological May 7 norms of 16-18°C, while lingering warm advection could push toward 19°C. GFS runs show similar uncertainty, with new 12-hour updates expected to refine land surface model outputs before the event resolves via official Munich Airport observations. Trader sentiment weighs this forecast divergence against historical spring variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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